Satellite provider revenue from direct-to-cell (D2C) services is projected to surpass $370 million in 2026, a substantial increase from $100 million in 2025, according to a new study by global tech strategist Juniper Research.
The report highlights a single-year growth rate of more than 260 percent, largely propelled by expanding collaborations between mobile network operators (MNOs) and satellite companies. These partnerships are enabling subscribers to access satellite networks directly using standard, unmodified smartphones.
Juniper Research notes that satellite operators are unlikely to become full MNOs themselves within the next five years. Instead, D2C technology is expected to complement existing terrestrial networks rather than replace them.
Partnerships Key for Indoor Coverage
The report underscores the challenges satellite operators face in providing indoor connectivity. While companies such as Starlink have acquired over $17 billion in spectrum globally and in the US during 2025, there has been speculation that the firm might transition into a full MNO to compete with its partners. Juniper Research, however, considers this unlikely.
“Satellite-first MNOs will struggle to offer connectivity comparable to terrestrial operators. Indoor signals are often obstructed, resulting in disjointed service and diminished value for subscribers,” said Alex Webb, senior research analyst at Juniper Research, while also adding “We do not expect satellite operators to compete directly with MNOs in the consumer market. Partnerships with existing MNOs represent the most viable route to secure a return on investment for satellite constellations.”
As D2C satellite services continue to expand, the study suggests that collaboration with terrestrial networks will remain essential for delivering reliable connectivity, especially in urban and indoor environments where satellite signals alone may fall short.
