The rise and fall of Airbus A380 

The A380 is out of production but still well in use

The Airbus A380 has had a fascinating history since its launch in 2005. With a higher capacity than any other aircraft, it offered new opportunities for many airlines. There have been operating and cost challenges, though, which have led to concerns and retirements. The pandemic nearly saw the end for the type, but it has re-entered service extensively since. Simple Flying explores the aircraft in this first part of a culled analysis.

Despite its challenges, the A380 remains a great aircraft and an impressive engineering achievement. We are unlikely to see anything this size again in the commercial market for some time. And with 251 orders, it has been far from a failure.

This article takes a look back at the history of the Airbus A380 to date. We focus on the concept, development, and potential of the aircraft and how it has worked well for some airlines but not so well for others. We will also consider its future amidst a difficult secondhand market.

The origins of the A380

The concept of the A380 goes back to the 1970s and the Boeing 747. The iconic Jumbo Jet was a great success for Boeing (and was its highest-selling widebody until the Boeing 777 took over in 2018). It changed aviation in many ways. Its higher capacity led to shifts in airline economics and lower airfares. And the extra onboard space was used for more luxurious cabin space and new classes of service.

Airbus was formed in 1970, with several European manufacturers coming together to compete against the larger US companies. Its initial A300 (competing with the Boeing 707) sold well, and Airbus launched the dual A330/A340 programme in 1986. It designed twin-engine and four-engine aircraft together, bringing them to market faster and more cost-effectively than launching two separate aircraft.

But it also wanted to go big and take on Boeing with a high-capacity aircraft. Plans for this began early in the 1980s. Airbus announced it formally at the Farnborough Air Show in 1990, with a proposed target of 15 percent lower operating costs than the 747.

Airbus looked at several different concepts, eventually settling on a full two-deck, known at the start as the A3XX. Interestingly, Boeing had also looked at this concept for the 747 but failed to make it work for emergency exit and evacuation requirements.

The A380 was designed for hub-based travel

The A380 was not just designed to be bigger than the 747. Airbus believed in the idea of creating high-capacity aircraft for hub-based travel. This would be of interest to airlines with hub and spoke based operations, with flights connecting in hubs and carrying high numbers of passengers on key routes. It would also help with growing congestion at airports.

We know now that this was not the best strategy. Boeing, at the time, was moving forward with the lower capacity 777, an aircraft that would appeal much more for point-to-point operations.

However, Airbus was not alone in thinking that high-capacity aircraft would be popular. Several other manufacturers looked at such development around the same time, including:

• McDonnell Douglas launched a two-deck proposal, the MD-12, in 1992. Despite interest from airlines, there were no orders.

• Lockheed Martin released plans for a Large Subsonic Transport aircraft in 1996. This offered two decks, four aisles, and a capacity of over 900. It failed to get going, though, with too many engineering challenges.

• And Boeing tried twice to launch a larger 747. This would have stretched the upper deck and introduced upgrades from the 777.

Freighter version and higher capacity option

At its outset, there was more on offer than just the passenger version we know today. Airbus offered a freighter version, which could have been a great opportunity to grow in the Boeing-dominated freighter market. There were 27 orders from Emirates, FedEx, UPS, and ILFC (International Lease Finance Corporation). However, it was never developed.

The A380 was also designed with larger versions in mind. Its wings were designed to support a larger fuselage if required. A larger fuselage version was proposed at launch, with an increased capacity of around 100. There was limited interest (and crucially no orders), though. Nor was there when Airbus tried several times again to offer something larger.

The launch of the A380

The A380 was launched at a ceremony in Toulouse in January 2005. It made its first flight in April 2005 and received certification in December 2006. Early problems crept in, however. Singapore Airlines took delivery of the first A380 in October 2007. Emirates followed it, but not until August 2008.

These delays were costly for Airbus and the A380 programme. Its parent company’s share price dropped 26 percent and led to a €5 billion ($5.7 billion) loss. This was also a major factor in the failure of the freighter. As Airbus prioritised the troubled passenger aircraft, freighter customers lost interest.

A380: Largest commercial aircraft ever built

With the launch of the A380, Airbus succeeded where several other manufacturers had failed and built the largest commercial aircraft to date. With the current shifts in preference, it is likely to hold this accolade for a long time. It will always stand as a great example of technical achievement and a milestone in aviation.

It is the largest commercial aircraft ever built, by capacity or volume, but not the longest. The 747-8 is 79.95 metres long, compared with 72.72 metres for the A380. The upcoming Boeing 777X will also be longer, with the larger 777-9 reaching 76.7 metres.

And for passenger capacity, it is a clear leader. The typical capacity is around 550, but the maximum (the safety exit limit) is an incredible 853 (no airline has done this). To compare, the 747-8 offers an exit limit of 605 and a typical capacity of 467. Emirates offers the highest capacity with its two-class layout of 615. The 777X will offer a typical capacity of 426.

Orders from 14 airlines for the A380

To see the success of the A380, consider its total sales. It has a total of 251 orders from 14 airlines (from Airbus data). Production, of course, has now ended with the last aircraft delivered to Emirates in December 2021.

This may be the lowest among current widebodies, but it is still far from unsuccessful for specialised aircraft. Had the freighter version worked out, this would likely have been much higher.

The following airlines ordered the A380:

• Emirates, 123 aircraft

• Singapore Airlines, 19 aircraft. Singapore Airlines was the launch customer for the A380 and also the first to start to retire aircraft.

• Qantas, 12 aircraft.

• British Airways, 12 aircraft.

• Lufthansa, 14 aircraft.

• Etihad, ten aircraft.

• Qatar Airways, ten aircraft.

• Air France, ten aircraft. Air France was the first European airline to take delivery of the A380 in 2009.

• Korean Air, ten aircraft.

• Asiana Airlines, six aircraft

• Thai Airways, six aircraft.

• Malaysian Airlines, six aircraft.

• China Southern, five aircraft

• ANA, three aircraft. ANA was the last airline to start flying the A380, in March 2019.

Emirates and the A380

We can’t discuss the success of the A380 without talking about Emirates. It accounts for 123 out of the 251 aircraft ordered and relies on a fleet of just these and the Boeing 777. This has been a great boost for the A380, and the main reason that the programme has lasted so long. Put simply, this is because Emirates has made the hub and spoke concept work.

Emirates is a true hub operator, carrying passengers on medium and long-haul flights with connections in Dubai. Emirates senior vice president for operations Hubert Frach explained how this model has worked for the airline. In an interview with Business Insider, he said:

“It works great for our network structure’s long-haul to long-haul connections. It allows us to offer efficient connections between developing economies with well-established economies.”

By making such a commitment, Emirates also benefits from operational advantages and cost savings. With any aircraft type, there are advantages in crewing, maintenance, and flight operations due to simplified fleets. Airlines with smaller fleets have struggled with higher costs. Emirates CEO Tim Clark discussed this in comparison with Air France in an interview with Airline Ratings:

“The A380 was a misfit for Air France. They never scaled; they only have ten aircraft. Yes, we faced the same teething problems, but we dealt with them because we were scaled enough to deal with it. If you’ve got a sub fleet of 10 it’s a bloody nightmare, and the costs go through the roof… But if you got a hundred of them, it’s a bit different. Your unit costs in operating with that number are a lot lower than having just ten.”

The decline of the A380

There were several signs of problems even several years before the end of the A380 programme. Several airlines had orders but never took delivery, including Virgin Atlantic (six), Transaero (four), Kingfisher (ten), and Hong Kong Airlines (ten). In addition, leasing company Amedeo placed an order for 20 aircraft in 2014 but cancelled it in 2019 after failing to find any customers.

Other customers reduced orders. Qantas ordered eight additional aircraft in 2006 but later cancelled them. Emirates cut back its order in 2019, cancelling 39 aircraft and ordering twin-engine A350 and A330neo aircraft.

It was not just the main production model that suffered declining orders – there were other proposed variants that never reached orders or production.

• An A380 stretched version. At launch, Airbus proposed the A380-200, seating around an extra 100 passengers. Again, in 2007, it proposed a similar-sized A380-900.

• A380neo. This was proposed in 2015, with a stretched fuselage and efficiency improvements. Lufthansa came close to ordering, but it never happened.

• A380plus. This was the last attempt in 2017 to improve the A380. It offered increased capacity (by increasing maximum take-off weight) or range, alongside other improvements.

The A380 programme never made a profit

Despite 251 orders, the overall project never made a profit. The development cost of €25 billion ($29.7 billion) was more than twice the original development estimate. One positive is that the volume was high enough that by the end, it was producing each aircraft higher than cost. Bloomberg reported in an analysis of the A380 in 2015:

“One modest success that Airbus aims to celebrate this year is that it no longer produces each A380 at a loss, though the company admits the overall programme itself will never recoup its $25 billion investment.”

Of course, the pandemic was rough for the A380 – but its end was decided before then. Airbus announced the end of the A380 programme in early 2019, with production to end in 2021. This came quickly following a reduction in orders from Emirates. Just one year before, it had expected the programme to last at least another ten years.