War in the Middle East has a way of escaping the battlefield and spilling into the world’s trade routes. The latest escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran is proving that point with remarkable speed.
In the early hours of February 28, 2026, Washington and Tel Aviv launched coordinated strikes on Iranian military infrastructure under what officials described as Operation Epic Fury. Within hours, Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against U.S. bases and allied facilities across the Gulf, while proxy actors such as Hezbollah opened additional fronts. The most immediate global consequences have not been confined to military exchanges. They have unfolded on the sea.
Within days, the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor between Iran and Oman and one of the most critical chokepoints in the global energy system was transformed from a routine commercial passage into a theatre of uncertainty. Shipping companies, insurers and traders reacted almost instantly.
When confidence collapses
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of global petroleum consumption, making it one of the most important maritime arteries in the global energy economy. Under normal circumstances, between 70 and 80 large vessels transit the corridor every day.
In the days following the strikes, that number collapsed. Tankers approaching the Gulf slowed, paused or reversed course. LNG carriers held position outside the strait. Within 48 hours, commercial tanker traffic had effectively stalled, with hundreds of vessels drifting in the Gulf of Oman awaiting clarity about the security situation. Crossings soon fell to single digits, an extraordinary contraction for a route that underpins the energy supply chains of Asia, Europe and beyond.
Technically, the strait has not been formally closed but shipping rarely waits for formal declarations. In maritime economics, confidence in safe passage matters as much as physical access. Once confidence disappears, trade flows quickly follow.
The insurance market’s power
If missiles and drones created the immediate danger, the insurance market delivered the decisive commercial blow. Protection and Indemnity (P&I) clubs; mutual insurers that cover liabilities for roughly 90 percent of the global merchant fleet moved swiftly after the escalation. Several issued 72-hour notices withdrawing war-risk extensions for vessels trading in parts of the Middle East as reinsurers pulled back from the risk.
At the same time, the Lloyd’s Joint War Committee expanded its classification of high-risk waters across the Gulf. The result was a surge in additional voyage premiums, which reportedly jumped from about 0.2 percent of a vessel’s value to nearly one percent in some cases.
For a modern crude tanker worth $100 million or more, that increase represents a substantial cost. More importantly, ships cannot legally operate in high-risk waters without adequate war-risk coverage. Without insurance, charterers will not hire them and banks will not finance them. In effect, the insurance market can shut down a shipping lane even when it remains physically open.
Commercial shipping in the line of fire
The conflict has also exposed commercial vessels to direct kinetic risk. Within days of the escalation, multiple ships across the Gulf and Gulf of Oman reported missile impacts, explosions or suspected drone strikes. Tankers, chemical carriers and merchant vessels were hit or damaged across a wide geographical arc stretching from the approaches to Oman to waters near Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. This pattern suggests disruption rather than blockade.
Instead of targeting a single chokepoint, the attacks appear designed to spread uncertainty across the entire maritime operating environment. Even vessels engaged in salvage operations have come under threat. A tug attempting to tow an abandoned merchant ship near the Strait of Hormuz was reportedly struck by missiles reflecting the growing unpredictability of the maritime battlespace.
Electronic warfare at sea
Alongside physical attacks, the conflict has opened a new front: electronic warfare against navigation systems. In the first 24 hours after the initial strikes, more than 1,100 vessels experienced GPS or AIS interference across the Gulf. Ships appeared on tracking systems in impossible locations, inside airports, across inland Iranian territory or scattered across the desert. In other areas, vessels vanished entirely from digital tracking systems.
These disruptions complicate navigation and raise collision risks in some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. They also undermine compliance systems that regulators, insurers and shipping companies rely upon to track vessels. In modern shipping, digital navigation and satellite tracking are as fundamental as radar and compasses. When those systems degrade, maritime risk multiplies quickly.
Global trade reroutes itself
As Hormuz traffic slowed, shipping patterns across adjacent trade corridors began shifting. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, has fluctuated as operators weigh the risk of Houthi attacks against the cost of longer detours.
The Suez Canal has seen volatile throughput as shipping schedules adjust and vessels reconsider Middle Eastern routes. The most visible structural shift has been the revival of a route that once dominated global shipping: the long passage around the Cape of Good Hope.
Container ships and bulk carriers moving between Asia and Europe are increasingly choosing the African route rather than navigating through the Gulf and Red Sea corridors.
The detour can add up to two weeks to a voyage, significantly increasing fuel consumption and tightening global fleet capacity. The inevitable consequence is higher freight rates and longer delivery times.
In a world already strained by geopolitical shocks from Ukraine to the Red Sea, another maritime disruption threatens to amplify inflationary pressures across supply chains.
Energy flows begin to tighten
The shipping disruption is already spilling into global energy markets. Tanker activity in the Arabian Gulf has dropped sharply, while oil exports from key producers including Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have declined from their normal levels.
Even where cargoes continue moving, operators are adjusting their strategies. Ship-to-ship transfer hubs in relatively safer waters are being used to redistribute crude and refined products, allowing traders to avoid sending large tankers through the most dangerous zones.
Energy markets are watching nervously. Even a partial disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz can drive oil prices higher, tighten LNG supplies and destabilise energy markets from Europe to East Asia.
What it means for Nigeria
For Nigeria, the ripple effects are both promising and problematic. Higher oil prices triggered by Middle Eastern instability could provide a fiscal boost for Africa’s largest crude producer. Oil revenues still account for the majority of Nigeria’s export earnings, meaning price spikes often translate directly into improved government finances.
Yet the benefits may come with significant offsets. Rising freight rates will increase the cost of imports from refined petroleum products to industrial inputs placing additional pressure on domestic inflation.
At the same time, the diversion of vessels around Africa could open unexpected opportunities. As shipping routes shift toward the Cape of Good Hope, West African ports could see increased demand for bunkering, logistics and maritime services. If Nigeria can improve port efficiency and security, it may find itself better positioned in a changing maritime geography.
The return of maritime geopolitics
For the global shipping industry, the broader lesson is unmistakable. After decades in which efficiency dominated maritime thinking, geopolitics has returned as a central force shaping global trade routes. From the war in Ukraine to attacks in the Red Sea and now the Gulf crisis, strategic chokepoints are once again vulnerable to conflict. Nearly 90 percent of global trade moves by sea. When war reaches the water, the effects ripple quickly through the world economy.
The latest crisis is a reminder that maritime trade, so often invisible to the public, is also one of the most fragile pillars of globalisation.
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