Just in case political leaders in West Africa are sleeping, they must be jolted, because the insecurity in the region has gone beyond looking away when their neighbours are in trouble. It is also long past allowing the affected countries alone to deal with their internal problems. The situation has reached a point where every country must be seen to be contributing to bring about peace in West Africa, because any country that is left to burn, will affect all others.
For this reason, the leaders must be reminded of the oft-quoted Martin Niemoller’s saying: “First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out- Because I was not a Communist. Then they came for the Socialists, And I did not speak out; Because I was not a Socialist, Then, they came for the Trade Unionist; And I did not speak out; Because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews; And I did not speak out; Because I was not a Jew, Then, they came for me; And there was no one left to speak out for me.”
Like Niemoller, ECOWAS leaders refused to show concern when Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger were, and continue to be, destroyed by terrorists. What the leaders are indirectly showing is that their countries are open, so that, when the terrorists finish with wherever they are, they can come to destroy theirs. Sadly, by then, there will be no one remaining to speak out against terrorism.
It is not only ECOWAS and African leaders who are ignoring the problem, the whole world is making it look like this is nothing to worry about. The Centre for Preventive Action, in a recent paper said, “the continuing collapse of international counterterrorism support, as well as weakening leadership in regional efforts, has created a vacuum in which violent extremism can expand,” and stated that, “organisations including Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP), and others have already taken advantage of that vacuum, using countries in the region as platforms to launch indiscriminate attacks on government forces and civilians alike.”
They said other non-state actors, such as the Wagner Group, have also capitalised on the absence of foreign involvement to expand their influence. The possible convergence of security threats, including increased cooperation among terrorist organisations, and between terrorist and criminal organisations, could intensify the danger these groups pose in the region and beyond.
Giving a background to the activities of these terror groups, the centre said in 2012, these organisations, previously surfaced in 1963, 1990, and 2006. It mentioned the Tuareg population, which represented only 10 percent of the Malian population, but organised themselves under the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), sought an autonomous state, and aligned themselves with multiple Islamist groups, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), and Ansar Dine to push government forces out of the north.
“Then-President Amadou Toumani Touré was deposed in a March 2012 coup by the army, which disapproved of the government’s failure to suppress the rebellion. The consequent collapse of state institutions in the north enabled the MNLA to capture the regional capitals of Gao, Kidal, and Timbuktu; the group had declared the independent state of Azawad in northern Mali by April,” they said.
The centre said, after a period of relative calm, the crisis deteriorated in January 2013 as AQIM, MUJAO, and Ansar Dine pushed further south to capture Konna in central Mali. In August, Mali transitioned back to a civilian-led government under Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, which later signed a peace agreement with a coalition of Tuareg independence groups, including the MNLA, in 2015. The coalition excluded Islamist organisations, which quickly took advantage of the agreement to expand their control, spreading further into central Mali and neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger.
The report said Liptako-Gourma, a region in the Central Sahel, bordering Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, has since become a hotbed for violent extremism in the Sahel. Notable attacks targeting the Radisson Blu Hotel in Mali, the Splendid Hotel in Burkina Faso, and L’Etoule du Sud Hotel in Côte d’Ivoire in 2015 and 2016 demonstrated the extent of the Islamist threat to the Sahel and West Africa.
“In September 2016, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) surfaced in Burkina Faso, launching its first major attack on a border post near the Burkinabe city of Markoye. In 2017, several al-Qaeda affiliates merged to form Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM). The emergence of ISGS and JNIM have intensified violence in the Sahel,” the centre said.
In the course of their onslaught, the report said, both JNIM and ISGS have pushed farther south in Liptako-Gourma, threatening the security of West Africa’s relatively stable coastal states. JNIM has more recently gained control over territory in northern and central Mali, while ISGS has been confined to northern Burkina Faso and western Niger due to clashes with JNIM that began in 2020.
Recent media reports quoted Nigerien President Abdourahamane Tchiani as saying, Niger’s border with Benin would remain closed due to Benin’s “security situation.” Tchiani directly accused Benin of hosting French troops and claimed that it was allowing Western countries to finance and support terrorism to destabilize the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
In addition to Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, (which have now grouped themselves into the AES), as well as Nigeria, have suffered clashes between their armies and Boko Haram in addition to the self-proclaimed Islamic State in the West Africa Province in northeast Nigeria, which has left several fighters dead.
Both terror groups have been competing for territory and influence on the shores of Lake Chad, a region that has become a hotbed of insurgent activity. With no end to these terror attacks, it is worrying that the U.S has declared Nigeria, a “Country of Particular Concern (CPC),” following the killing of a number of Christians.
To compound the situation, Canada has also joined the on-going chorus, and this means that Nigeria is facing a threat of a possible attack. For those who may not understand the classification of Nigeria as a CPC, the killing of “Christians” is being seen as genocide and opens the way for an attack to save the situation.
Whether this is ‘the best way to deal with the Nigerian security situation,’ is open to debate. However, a cursory assessment shows that the threat to attack Nigeria is a poisonous concoction that is being brewed, and if it is released, it is not only Nigerians who will feel its effect, but the people in the West African region.
That is why, we must be careful that the threat is not another trick to engage in some other sinister activities in the region. Some people have claimed that any attack will open the way for an onslaught on the AES group, which has been a target for some time.
It should be clear that any attack on Nigeria, with its ramifications, is an operation that cannot be controlled. Why any country would dream of that, beats my imagination. Boko Haram has created and continues to unleash untold havoc in the north of Nigeria. Thousands have died in the process, but there has been silence all over the world.
Political leaders in West Africa simply saw what was happening in Nigeria as an internal problem. They did not see it as one that could spill over into their countries. The sudden concern being shown by the U.S. is worrying because thousands have died in the past, yet no one cared, not even the neighbouring countries.
So, why now? What is not being looked at properly is the fact that should the threatened U.S attack go wrong, what will be the price to pay? Obviously, there is the possibility of a spill over into other West African countries. If the terrorists enter these countries and use them as their bases, which is a possibility, will the U.S. enter those countries too?
This is what should be the concern of ECOWAS now. More people will be killed than before. Currently, the situation in Nigeria has become fluid, as we are told it is no longer a Boko Haram affair, as other groups have joined in the fighting. It means that any attack can escalate the activities of these new groups.
Nigeria is now under severe political stress and her problems should not be compounded. President Ahmed Tinubu should question the rationale behind the decision to classify his country as CPC. Leaders of ECOWAS should not stay aloof because this is a looming danger, and if it can be done to Nigeria, the rest of the region is not immune.
That is why the fire brewing the poison must be quenched before it receives more gas. We must sing in unison to avoid the poison being dropped in the region to destroy our peace, because with the suspension of humanitarian funding all over the globe, there is going to be severe suffering if we are not careful.
