Onome Amuge
As Nigeria struggles to diversify its economy away from oil dependency, policymakers and industry leaders are beginning to align around e-commerce, once considered an unlikely but powerful growth driver. With projections suggesting the sector could inject $16 billion into Africa’s fourth largest economy by 2030, the conversation is rapidly shifting from whether e-commerce can matter to how it can be positioned as a central pillar in Nigeria’s quest for a $1 trillion economy.
At the just-concluded 35th annual Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria (FICAN) conference in Lagos, academics, regulators, and private sector leaders noted the future of commerce in Nigeria is digital, and the policy and infrastructure choices made today will determine whether the country seizes or squanders this opportunity.
Olayinka David-West, dean of Lagos Business School (LBS), captured the mood of the gathering when she argued that Nigeria’s digital economy is more than statistics, describing it as a new way of organising commerce, taxation, and livelihoods. Represented by Akintola Owolabi, she noted that platforms such as Jumia and Konga, alongside innovative logistics startups like Kwik and GIG Logistics (GIGL), are creating entirely new value chains that were unthinkable a decade ago.
But she warned that the digital revolution is not self-executing. This is as Nigeria’s broadband penetration remains patchy, electricity supply unreliable, and digital skills unevenly distributed. “The interconnection of digital transformation across banking, finance, and taxation is a powerful catalyst for Nigeria’s growth. But regulators must balance innovation with consumer protection, or the promise could quickly turn to disillusion,” David-West said.
A trillion-dollar dream meets digital realities
President Bola Tinubu’s administration has repeatedly set the ambition of growing Nigeria’s economy to $1 trillion within the decade. For decades, oil was expected to deliver such transformation. Today, digital commerce,riding on payments, artificial intelligence, and cross-border trade, is increasingly viewed as a viable replacement growth engine.
According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), internet penetration stood at 43.5 per cent in March 2024, with 163 million Nigerians online. The ICT sector contributes between 18 and 20 per cent of GDP, already outpacing oil’s share. More tellingly, digital payment transactions exceeded N600 trillion in the first half of 2025, representing 22 per cent year-on-year growth.
“The ICT sector has gone from being an enabler to a driver of economic growth. Mobile money accounts now exceed 73 million, bringing rural communities into the financial system. If the momentum is sustained, e-commerce could become one of the country’s most important exports under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA),” said Chima Titus, chairman of FICAN.
The tax conundrum
However, the growth of e-commerce and digital payments introduces complex questions about taxation. While digital transactions offer regulators unprecedented data trails for enforcement, they also open the door to over-taxation, double taxation, and policy uncertainty.
Nigeria’s Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has been aggressive in introducing new levies to capture digital activity. Since 2022, global streaming giants, social media platforms, and cloud service providers operating in Nigeria have been subject to taxes, even if they do not maintain physical offices in the country. While this has boosted revenue, businesses warn that aggressive taxation could stifle innovation, especially among smaller domestic startups.
“Taxation of the digital economy must be equitable and growth-oriented. No robust digital economy can flourish without a fair framework. The risk is not only discouraging global platforms but also suffocating indigenous innovators who lack the resilience of multinationals,” Titus said.
AI and the future of financial services
If taxation is a challenge, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as an opportunity. Leading banks such as Access Bank and GTBank are already deploying AI for fraud detection, customer service, and credit scoring. For e-commerce, AI offers even more transformative potential: personalised shopping experiences, predictive logistics, and dynamic pricing.
David-West pointed out that AI is not just about efficiency; it is about competitiveness. As consumers become more digitally sophisticated, platforms that fail to offer intelligent, seamless services risk losing relevance.
LBS and other institutions are seen stepping in with targeted executive education and leadership development, but observers say a national skills strategy is overdue. “Digital commerce is not just about apps; it’s about people who can build, manage, and secure them,” David-West said.
One of the most overlooked dimensions of Nigeria’s e-commerce story is its cross-border potential. Under AfCFTA, Nigerian platforms have the chance to sell to over 1.3 billion people across Africa. Logistics firms like GIGL are already experimenting with intra-African delivery networks, while payment platforms are working on seamless cross-border settlements.
Yet, the promise is entangled with challenges. Customs bottlenecks, poor infrastructure at ports, and inconsistent regulations across African markets threaten to limit the benefits. Industry analysts say Nigeria must position itself not only as a consumer market but also as a hub for cross-border e-commerce.
Despite all the optimism, infrastructure remains the biggest stumbling block. Power outages increase the cost of doing business, while broadband remains concentrated in urban centres, leaving rural Nigeria behind. Without reliable electricity and affordable internet, both consumers and merchants remain locked out of the digital economy.
According to David-West, these deficits are not insurmountable but require deliberate investment. She cited the CBN’s regulatory sandbox as an example of how innovation-friendly frameworks can accelerate change.
The FICAN conference noted that the challenge for Nigeria is not whether e-commerce will grow, but whether the country will put in place the policies and infrastructure to ensure that growth delivers inclusive and sustainable prosperity.
The conference clarified that e-commerce is not just about shopping online. The panelists argued that it is about reimagining Nigeria’s place in the global economy, adding that If managed well, it could be the country’s most important engine on the road to $1 trillion.
