• Boeing 787 Dreamliner deployed

United Airlines has one Nigerian route: Washington Dulles to Lagos. However, it flew from Houston for oil/energy reasons until 2016. Until now, Dulles-Lagos has operated three times weekly. As you may know, that will change in winter 2024/2025, when it will rise to daily. As the equipment remains unchanged, seats for sale have more than doubled. It’s a massive vote of confidence because repatriating funds from Nigeria is now less of a problem, writes Simple Flying, in this analysis.

Dulles-Lagos rises to daily

The 4,729 nautical mile (8,758 km) airport pair will be daily for the first time. It will continue to fly the 243-seat Boeing 787-8, each with the same relatively low-premium configuration. There are 28 Polaris seats, along with 21 in Premium Plus, 36 in Economy Plus, and 158 in regular economy.

The increased frequency will take effect from the US on December 12, in time for peak Christmas and New Year demand. It will come nearly two weeks after Delta Air Lines resumes New York JFK-Lagos on December 1, last served in 2022, joining its daily Atlanta-Lagos service. United’s daily operation will exist until February 12, 2025, when it will revert to three times weekly.

It is scheduled as follows, with all times local. The very long, unproductive time in Nigeria is to maximise two-way connectivity over United’s Dulles hub. This includes to/from Toronto, a burgeoning market from Nigeria. All of United’s Africa flights (Accra, Cape Town, Lagos) leave from Dulles and arrive back at about the same time.

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• Washington Dulles-Lagos: UA612, 18:30-10:40+1

• Lagos-Washington Dulles: UA613, 23:50-05:55+1

A look at the passenger traffic

According to the US Department of Transportation T-100 data, United carried 152,000+ roundtrip Dulles-Lagos passengers between December 2021 and May 2024, the most recent month for which we have data.

Below is a monthly view of traffic and seat load factors, with United filling an average of 82% of seats. It had 90%+ on two occasions, most recently in December 2023. No wonder United is keen to increase frequency to capitalise on this higher demand, although, as always, loads should not be considered in isolation from other factors.

Will the increase in capacity from the daily frequency result in much worse loads, fares, and yields? It will have more than double the number of seats to fill, a considerable number, especially in the less demanded February. While it’s only for two months, it must capture passengers from Delta and also African, European, and Middle Eastern carriers.

While not a fair examination, it carried 16,000 passengers from December 2023 to February 2024 — the three months the extra flights will operate this winter. Traffic rose by nearly a fifth compared to the same months the year before, albeit from a lower base versus when the route was introduced. It’ll need to double traffic to achieve the same loads.

Where United’s Lagos passengers go

In the year to May 2024, the US DOT shows that United carried 63,000 passengers and filled 84% of seats. Relating this to booking data provides greater insights. It suggests that approximately 23% of passengers were point-to-point, while 77% transferred to another flight at Dulles.

Unsurprisingly, United’s most popular origin and destination (via Dulles) was Lagos to/from Houston Intercontinental for oil/energy reasons. Toronto was next, then Chicago O’Hare, Dallas/Fort Worth, Newark, Ontario (California), Boston, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and LaGuardia.

United carried more Lagos-Houston passengers at the city level than Lagos-Greater NYC passengers. That’s despite Delta not flying from JFK to Nigeria, while United continues not to serve JFK.