Onome Amuge
Nigeria is reaping windfall gains from the global cocoa price rally, with export earnings from the commodity more than tripling in the first quarter of 2025, according to a new economic outlook published by investment group Norrenberger.
Cocoa receipts rose to N1.23 trillion in the first three months of the year, a 220 per cent increase from N384.1 billion in the same period of 2024, the report said. The gains marked the country’s highest-ever quarterly revenue from the crop, underlining its growing role in Nigeria’s external accounts at a time when policymakers are attempting to reduce dependence on oil.
“The record cocoa earnings reflect both elevated international prices and stronger export volumes. As one of Nigeria’s most valuable non-oil exports, cocoa provides a vital stream of foreign exchange at a time when oil revenues remain vulnerable to global price fluctuations and domestic production constraints,”Norrenberger said in its H2 2025 Economic Outlook.
Global cocoa markets have endured extraordinary volatility over the past 18 months, with supply shortfalls in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana (Together accounting for two-thirds of world output),pushing futures in New York to above $12,000 a tonne late last year. Prices corrected sharply in March 2025, falling more than 30 per cent as expectations for a stronger mid-crop emerged, before rebounding to between $9,000 and $9,800 a tonne in June. Even after moderating to $8,101 by the end of the month, benchmark prices remained 20 per cent higher than a year earlier.
The climb has buoyed Nigeria’s current account and eased pressure on the naira, which has been battered by persistent dollar shortages. Analysts say the additional inflows have provided the central bank with greater room to intervene in the foreign exchange market.
Cocoa is also providing a lifeline to rural communities where production is concentrated. Rising farm-gate prices have lifted incomes and spurred economic activity in producing states, while strengthening agricultural value chains.
But Norrenberger cautioned that the boom may not prove sustainable. “Aging cocoa trees, limited financing options for farmers, and inadequate infrastructure continue to weigh on productivity,” the report said. As it stands, without fresh investment in replanting and processing, Nigeria risks losing momentum once the current favourable price cycle ends.
