Onome Amuge
Cocoa futures traded mixed on Wednesday as rains across West Africa temporarily eased concerns over drought stress, while a drop in US-monitored stockpiles provided support to New York contracts.
December ICE New York cocoa futures settled up 14 points, or 0.19 per cent, at $7,428 per metric tonne, reversing early session losses. In contrast, December ICE London cocoa slipped £6, or 0.12 per cent, to £5,024 a tonne.
The divergence highlighted competing forces in the market. Over the past two sessions, traders have pared back weather-driven premiums after rainfall in Ghana and Nigeria brought some relief to parched cocoa-growing regions.
But in the US, ICE-monitored inventories of cocoa held at exchange ports fell to a four-and-a-half-month low of just over 2.04 million bags, offering a reminder of tightening supply. That inventory decline helped New York futures recover ground after an initial sell-off.
Concerns over West African supply remain front of mind for traders. Earlier this week, New York cocoa hit a two-week high as analysts pointed to widespread dryness in Ghana and Nigeria. Pod withering has already been reported in some areas, underscoring the vulnerability of yields if rainfall proves inconsistent.
In Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, the pace of exports has slowed. Government data released on Monday showed shipments of 1.82 million tonnes from the start of the marketing year in October through September 14, up 5.8 per cent from the previous season but sharply below the 35 per cent year-on-year surge recorded in December.
Quality concerns are also weighing on sentiment. The mid-crop currently being harvested through September is expected to fall 9 per cent to 400,000 tonnes, according to estimates, as late-arriving rains limited pod development. Analysts at Rabobank have highlighted a deterioration in bean quality, with implications for grinders reliant on Ivory Coast supply.
Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest producer, is facing its own production challenges. The Cocoa Association of Nigeria projects output in the 2025/26 season will decline 11 per cent year on year to 305,000 tonnes, compared with 344,000 tonnes in the current crop year.
