Onome Amuge
Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the most acute threat facing the world in 2026, overtaking war, climate shocks and social unrest, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026.
The annual report, a bellwether for elite opinion ahead of the WEF’s meeting in Davos, finds that tensions driven by trade restrictions, sanctions, industrial policy and strategic competition are now viewed as the single risk most likely to trigger a global crisis this year. The shift reflects deepening rivalry among major powers and a growing willingness by governments to weaponise economic tools in pursuit of geopolitical objectives.
The findings underline a sharp deterioration in global confidence. Half of the more than 1,300 leaders and experts surveyed expect the world to be turbulent or stormy over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year. A further 40 per cent anticipate at least an unsettled outlook, while only 10 per cent foresee stability or calm. Looking a decade ahead, pessimism deepens, as 57 per cent expect turbulence, and just 11 per cent anticipate a stable or calm world.
Geoeconomic confrontation was cited by 18 per cent of respondents as the risk most likely to spark a global crisis in 2026 and ranked first in severity over the next two years, climbing eight places from last year. State-based armed conflict ranked second for 2026 but fell to fifth place in the two-year outlook, indicating that while war remains a persistent danger, economic coercion is increasingly seen as the primary transmission channel for systemic shocks.
“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential,” said Børge Brende, president and chief executive of the World Economic Forum.
The report warns that in a world of rising rivalries and prolonged conflicts, geoeconomic confrontation threatens supply chains, investment flows and financial stability, while also eroding the cooperative capacity required to respond to crises. Nearly seven in 10 respondents expect the global system to evolve into a multipolar or fragmented order over the next decade, reinforcing concerns about bloc formation and the weakening of multilateral institutions.
Economic risks show the largest collective increase in the short-term outlook. Fears of an economic downturn and inflation both jumped eight places in the two-year rankings, while the risk of asset bubbles bursting rose seven places. The report highlights mounting debt levels, particularly in a high-interest-rate environment, as a potential fault line that could amplify volatility if growth slows amid trade disruption and geopolitical stress.
Alongside economic and geopolitical pressures, the report points to an escalation in information and technology-related risks. Misinformation and disinformation rank second in the two-year outlook, while cyber insecurity sits sixth. Concerns over adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence show the steepest long-term rise, climbing from 30th place in the two-year horizon to fifth over the next decade, reflecting anxiety about labour displacement, social cohesion and security vulnerabilities.
“The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks,” said Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the WEF. “From geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt, these pressures are changing our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion.”
Social strains are a recurring theme. Societal polarisation ranks fourth as an immediate risk in 2026 and rises to third by 2028, while inequality holds seventh place in both the two- and 10-year outlooks. For the second year running, inequality was identified as the most interconnected risk, acting as a catalyst for political instability, mistrust and economic fragility. Cost-of-living pressures and so-called K-shaped recoveries, in which wealthier groups pull further ahead, are cited as key drivers.
Environmental risks, while still dominant in the long term, have slipped down the short-term rankings as governments and businesses focus on immediate economic and security concerns. Extreme weather dropped from second to fourth place in the two-year outlook, while pollution, biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems also fell. However, the report stresses that this reflects a shift in attention rather than a reduction in underlying danger.
Over a 10-year horizon, environmental threats remain the most severe risks facing humanity. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems occupy the top three positions, and three-quarters of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy environmental outlook, the most negative assessment across all risk categories.
The report analyses risks across three timeframes (immediate, short to medium term and long term) and highlights how near-term shocks can create knock-on effects that worsen structural challenges. Armed conflict, economic coercion and societal fragmentation are already colliding, the authors warn, even as technological acceleration and environmental degradation continue largely unchecked.
