Onome Amuge
Domestic petrol supply has climbed following operational improvements at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, offering fresh evidence that Africa’s largest refining project is beginning to reshape the country’s downstream fuel market.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that average domestic supply of premium motor spirit (PMS) rose to about 32 million litres per day in December 2025, up from 19.5 million litres per day in November, an increase of about 64 per cent. The rise marks one of the strongest month-on-month gains in locally refined petrol since the $20bn Lekki-based refinery began phased operations.
According to the regulator’s December fact sheet, the improvement coincided with stronger utilisation at the Dangote facility and smoother coordination across the downstream value chain, following internal restructuring and leadership changes at the NMDPRA. Industry participants say the period has been characterised by closer alignment between regulators, operators and off-takers.
The data indicate that Dangote Refinery alone supplied about 5.78 million litres per day to the domestic PMS market in December. Overall supply performance was supported by improved refinery utilisation, more efficient evacuation of products into coastal depots and higher truck-out volumes to the local market.
The refinery reached a peak capacity utilisation of about 71 per cent during the month, which the regulator described as “strong”, while average utilisation across domestic refining assets exceeded 63 per cent, a sign of gradual stabilisation after intermittent operations earlier in the year.
Rising local output helped lift Nigeria’s estimated petrol sufficiency to about 29 days in December, compared with significantly lower cover in September and October, when domestic supply slipped below demand benchmarks. Nigeria’s official petrol demand benchmark for 2025 stands at about 50 million litres per day, although actual truck-out volumes averaged 63.7 million litres per day in December, reflecting cross-border leakages and inventory build-up ahead of the festive season.
The NMDPRA attributed the rebound in PMS availability to higher output from the Dangote Refinery, strategic imports by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) acting as supplier of last resort, and efforts to rebuild national inventories. Twelve vessels originally scheduled to discharge in October reportedly rolled into November, adding to supply buffers heading into December.
Aliko Dangote, president and chief executive of Dangote Industries, has repeatedly said the refinery’s priority is to meet domestic fuel needs even as it targets export markets. “Our priority is to ensure Nigeria receives the products it needs,” he said recently, adding that the strategy is aimed at securing energy supply rather than maximising short-term profits.
Analysts argue that a sustained rise in domestic petrol output from Dangote is central to Nigeria’s longer-term ambition of reducing import dependence and dampening pump price volatility, particularly in the aftermath of fuel subsidy removal. Despite the recent gains, retail petrol prices remain sensitive to exchange-rate movements and global fuel costs, with indicative prices in November ranging between about N910 and N982.50 per litre across major cities.
Performance across other refined products was more uneven. The regulator’s report shows that domestic diesel supply remained constrained in December, reflecting shutdowns at some facilities, while modular refineries contributed marginal volumes of about 0.39 million litres per day. By contrast, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply was relatively robust, with domestic production accounting for more than 70 per cent of total supply during the month.
Regulators and market participants expect the Dangote Refinery’s footprint in the domestic fuel market to expand further in 2026 as operational bottlenecks ease and additional units stabilise. With planned domestic PMS supply set at 50 million litres per day, consistent performance at the Lekki complex is widely seen as pivotal to closing Nigeria’s petrol supply gap and strengthening fuel security in the post-subsidy era.
