Onome Amuge
As Nigeria ushers in 2026, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has sounded a clarion call to government and business leaders, urging decisive execution of policies, fiscal discipline, and private-sector-led growth strategies to consolidate economic gains achieved in recent years.
In its first press briefing of the year, Chinyere Almona, director general of the LCCI, highlighted both the opportunities and risks facing Africa’s largest economy, emphasizing that the trajectory of national prosperity will depend less on budget size and more on implementation, transparency, and strategic engagement with the private sector.
“Through comprehensive macroeconomic diagnostics, we aim to highlight critical areas of concern and present actionable recommendations to the Government. Together, we can continue to shape an economic landscape that benefits businesses and strengthens our national economy,” Almona stated.
Global headwinds, local implications
Almona framed Nigeria’s economic outlook against a backdrop of heightened global volatility. According to the LCCI, the global economy showcased unexpected resilience in 2025, supported by robust consumer spending in advanced economies, partial stabilisation of global supply chains, and accelerated investment in digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI). Nevertheless, ongoing protectionist measures, geopolitical conflicts, high debt levels, and financial market volatility continue to pose risks to emerging economies such as Nigeria.
The Chamber projects global growth at 3.3 per cent for 2026, slightly below 2025, while developing economies may expand at around 4 per cent, constrained by trade fragmentation, weaker external demand, and muted investment flows. Inflation is expected to decline in most regions, yet the LCCI noted that households in developing nations will remain vulnerable to high energy and food prices, which could exacerbate domestic cost-of-living pressures.
Almona highlighted that global technological shifts, particularly in AI, clean energy, and digital infrastructure, present strategic opportunities for Nigeria. “Effectively leveraging these opportunities will require deliberate, coordinated policy actions, strengthened institutions, and robust private-sector-led growth strategies,” she said, signalling that government-business collaboration will be crucial to translating global trends into domestic gains.
Turning to Nigeria’s economy, Almona reported that real GDP grew by 3.98 per cent in Q3 2025, a marginal decline from 4.23 per cent in the previous quarter, but an improvement from 3.86 per cent in the same period of 2024. Growth was driven primarily by the non-oil sector, reinforcing the LCCI’s call for sustained reforms to boost productivity in agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
Yet the Chamber flagged persistent challenges, including the high Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) of 27 per cent maintained by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). While the elevated rate helps anchor inflation expectations, Almona warned it also raises borrowing costs, suppresses aggregate demand, and hampers business expansion, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate, manufacturing, and consumer goods.
Inflation, though on a downward trajectory, remains a concern. Factors including high energy costs, currency pass-through effects, insecurity, and logistics inefficiencies continue to pressure businesses and households. Almona urged the government to sustain support for food production, energy supply, and key supply chains to ease operating costs and enhance price stability. The Chamber anticipates that continued moderation of inflation may pave the way for a measured reduction in the MPR, cushioning both businesses and households in 2026.
L-R: Kola Aderibigbe, vice president, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI); Chinyere Almona, director general, LCCI; Leye Kupoluyi, president & chairman of council, LCCI; Olajumoke Fashanu, vice president, LCCI; and Sunnie Omeiza-Michael, director, research and advocacy, LCCI, during the 2026 LCCI First Quarter Press Conference on the state of the Economy held at Commerce House, Victoria Island, Lagos on 22nd January, 2026.
Exchange rate and reserves: Signs of stability
Nigeria’s foreign exchange market showcased relative stability in 2025, with the official naira strengthening by 6.52 per cent against the dollar, from N1,535.32/$ in December 2024 to N1,435.26/$ in December 2025. Almona attributed this to improved market transparency, supportive CBN policies, and rising external reserves, which reached $45.5 billion by year-end.
“The relative stability of the exchange rate reflects improved transparency and stronger policy credibility. These gains provide the Central Bank with greater capacity to manage liquidity, cushion the economy against external shocks, and foster investor confidence,” she noted.
Fiscal policy and debt concerns
The 2026 federal budget, themed “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity”, has been welcomed by the Chamber as a blueprint for continuing recovery and growth. Total expenditure of N58.47 trillion is to be supported by projected revenues of N34.33 trillion, implying a deficit of N23.85 trillion, or 4.28 per cent of GDP. Almona stressed the need for a diversified financing mix, warning against over-reliance on debt and advocating for equity financing and other low-cost funding sources.
She praised the emphasis on production-oriented capital expenditure, noting that N26.08 trillion (about 45% of the budget), is allocated to infrastructure, industrial expansion, and productivity enhancement. However, she cautioned that the N15.52 trillion earmarked for debt servicing remains a major fiscal burden, underlining the importance of borrowing discipline, improved revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to protect growth-oriented investments.
Nigeria’s total public debt, Almona noted, stood at N152.4 trillion as of mid-2025, reflecting both fresh borrowings and currency depreciation effects on external debt. The Chamber urged measures to expand non-oil revenue, improve tax compliance, and curb recurrent expenditures to maintain fiscal sustainability.
Structural reforms and sectoral priorities
Looking ahead, the LCCI identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as priority growth drivers for 2026. According to the chamber, achieving meaningful progress will require decisive execution: expanding irrigation and value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, accelerating infrastructure delivery via public-private partnerships (PPPs), sustaining oil and gas sector reforms, and aligning education with private-sector skill demands.
Almona also welcomed recent developments in domestic energy supply, noting that 87 per cent of cooking gas is now produced locally, enhancing energy security and reducing exposure to global price shocks. She urged continued support for local production in other critical sectors to strengthen resilience and self-sufficiency.
Privatisation and asset monetisation
The 2026 Appropriation Bill includes N189 billion in projected revenues from asset sales and privatisation, spanning oil and gas, power, transport, industry, and real estate. Almona lauded the plan as a means of easing fiscal pressure and improving efficiency, but emphasised the need for transparency, competitive execution, and reinvestment in infrastructure, human capital, and productivity-enhancing projects. She cautioned that privatisation must form part of a broader structural reform agenda, not merely a short-term financing measure.
Contractor payments and implementation gaps
Persistent payment delays to contractors have been acknowledged in the 2026 budget, with N1.7 trillion earmarked to settle verified 2024 capital project liabilities. Almona stressed that structural weaknesses, including weak budget performance and delayed capital releases, continue to hinder infrastructure delivery. She called for sustained fiscal discipline and timely funding to restore contractor confidence and ensure the successful execution of capital projects.
Tax reforms and business formalisation
The LCCI welcomed Nigeria’s new tax regime, urging businesses to remain compliant and engaged with the authorities. Almona emphasised that the reform, if executed transparently and efficiently, has the potential to enhance competitiveness, increase revenue, and strengthen the fiscal framework without stifling growth.
Throughout her address, Almona reiterated the Chamber’s commitment to ongoing engagement with government, the media, and other stakeholders. By providing quarterly assessments of economic trends and policy recommendations, the LCCI aims to strengthen dialogue between the private sector and policymakers, ensuring that reforms translate into tangible benefits for businesses and citizens alike.
“The success of Nigeria’s economy in 2026 will hinge on execution, accountability, and collaboration between government and the private sector. We remain steadfast in advocating for actionable policies that enable businesses to thrive and contribute meaningfully to national development,” Almona concluded.
Outlook: Execution as the key metric
With 2026 poised as a year of both opportunity and uncertainty, the LCCI’s assessment highlights that macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline, and targeted reforms are necessary but insufficient without decisive execution. From infrastructure delivery to debt management, exchange rate stability, and private-sector growth, the Chamber warns that tangible outcomes, not headline allocations, will define the year’s success for Nigeria’s economy.
