Nigeria’s 13 oil blocks out of a total 50 put on offer failed to attract investor bidding interests during the 2025 commercial bidding round, and have been returned to the government’s licensing pool, according to data from NUPRC – Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Resources Commission.
However, the federal government has advanced 196 bidders, in what industry watchers describe as pressing ahead with one of the most ambitious upstream investment drives in a decade.
By far, more than a quarter of the previous oil and gas assets offered for the 2025 bidding round failed to attract any bidders.
Oil and gas investment analysts say the outcome of the failed bids is a reflection of the growing selectiveness of global oil and gas investors, who are now increasingly shifting their capital towards projects with bigger commercial prospects amid intensifying competition for upstream investment.
However, NUPRC is optimistic that the other 37 successful bids could add some 500 million barrels to the country’s proven reserves, which currently stands at 37.01 billion barrels (bbls), and increase production by additional 300,000 barrels per day, if successfully developed.
This will boost the country’s current 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd), the highest achieved by the country in over six years.
In June, Nigeria exceeded its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude production quota for the fourth straight month, having recorded its highest crude output ever since April 2020.
The government believes it is on track to double the country’s output to 3 million barrels a day (mbpd) by 2030.
For more than a decade, Nigeria has struggled with industry level oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment amid regulatory uncertainty. These were topped with massive divestment by international oil companies (IOCs) – Shell, ExxonMobil, Eni, Chevron, among others.
Till date, the cumulative worth of onshore and shallow-water asset divestments by IOCs in Nigeria is estimated at over $6 billion since the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021. However, regulatory and industry tracking bodies, such as the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), have evaluated major asset packages and transactions near $6.03 billion.
With the current production upswing, a number of industry analysts adduce Nigeria may have begun rebuilding its long lost oil production capacity.
However, many others are tepid in their summation, wondering the sustenance of the current uptick given multifarious socioeconomic challenges the country faces ahead of decider elections only few months away.
Meanwhile, the country’s petroleum upstream regulator says it will return the 13 oil blocks not bidded for to the government’s licensing basket for future auctions. This is, as the federal government prepares for 2026 bidding round.
Nigeria is in desperate push to attract fresh exploration spending long dried up for years before IOCs divestment, and restore long-term production growth.
Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, chief executive of NUPRC, speaking at the commercial bid conference in Abuja, said the licensing process drew interest from indigenous producers, international energy companies, existing operators and new entrants.
According to Eyesan, around 300 companies initially expressed interest in the licensing round. After prequalification, 196 applicants qualified for the commercial stage, while 143 companies eventually submitted 200 technical and commercial bids covering 37 assets.
Eyesan said NUPRC deliberately prioritised operators capable of developing the assets, rather than rewarding only the highest financial offers.
“It wasn’t, and it isn’t, going to be just about your ability to be the highest bidder. We want to ensure that you have the right capabilities to deliver the asset, in addition to having the financial resources,” the upstream regulatory authority’s chief executive said.
According to her, companies were assessed on technical competence, operational experience, organisational capacity, project execution plans and financial strength.
The NUPRC boss stressed that emerging as the highest commercial bidder does not automatically guarantee a petroleum prospecting licence. Successful bidders must still satisfy post-award conditions within 90 days, including paying signature bonuses, first-year rents, providing financial guarantees and executing all contractual agreements.
Eyesan warned investors against warehousing licences without developing the assets.
“The award should not be a trophy. It shouldn’t be just a medal of honour. We expect that you’re going to work these assets,” she said.
The Nigeria government hopes fresh upstream investment will strengthen the country’s oil production, and broaden natural gas development.
Minister of state for petroleum resources (gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, said new upstream investments would not only increase crude production but also strengthen Nigeria’s gas ambitions under the “Decade of Gas Initiative”.
He said expanding exploration would support industrialisation, improve domestic gas supply and reinforce Nigeria’s position as one of Africa’s leading natural gas exporters.
However industry watchers have long argued that access to financing unarguably remains the biggest obstacles facing Nigeria’s upstream investment.
To wit, investors are cautious about committing capital to frontier assets in the midst of volatile oil prices (especially due to the ongoing global disruptions), higher financing costs and the global energy transition. For Nigeria, the Petroleum Industry Act may have improved regulatory certainty, but there more parameters informing investment decision. Investors are now increasingly selective, preferring only assets with clearer commercial potential and lower development risks.
Meanwhile, the expected 2026 licensing round spans oil assets across the Niger Delta, the Benin Basin, Anambra Basin, Chad Basin, Benue Trough, shallow-water acreage and one deep offshore block, giving investors access to both mature producing regions and frontier exploration areas.
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