Chicago soybean futures advanced for a second consecutive session on Friday as renewed Chinese demand and stronger-than-expected United States export sales helped offset pressure from expectations of a record Midwest harvest.
The gains underscored the influence of export demand on the oilseed market, with recent Chinese purchases boosting US sales volumes and supporting prices despite the prospect of abundant domestic supplies.
The most actively traded soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 4.25 cents to $12.57¼ per bushel, extending its recovery as traders assessed demand prospects and competition from other major exporters.
“Soybeans are taking support from solid demand numbers and thoughts Brazil may be less competitive in the global market this year,” said Karl Setzer, co-founder of Consus Ag Consulting.
“A strong energy complex is also supporting soybeans,” he added.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported net US soybean export sales of 2.8 million metric tonnes for the week ended October 15, near the upper end of market estimates. A series of Chinese purchases helped lift the sales volume, reinforcing expectations that overseas demand could absorb a substantial share of US supplies.
The strength in soybean prices came despite expectations of a record harvest across the US Midwest, which could increase available supplies and limit further gains. The market’s performance suggests that traders are weighing the potential pressure from rising production against the immediate support provided by export demand.
Energy markets also provided a supportive backdrop. Oil prices rose on Friday, with Brent crude touching its highest level since early May, following Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia that heightened concerns over possible disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies. Authorities in the United Arab Emirates also reported an oil spill.
Higher energy prices can influence agricultural commodity markets through biofuel demand, production costs and transportation expenses, although the extent of the effect varies across crops and market conditions.
Corn futures moved in the opposite direction, with the advancing US harvest weighing on prices as traders anticipated further additions to already large domestic stocks.
CBOT corn fell 4.25 cents to $4.56¼ per bushel, reflecting concerns that rising supplies could outpace demand and constrain prices during the harvest period.
Wheat, meanwhile, gained 3.75 cents to $6.28½ per bushel as continued attacks affecting Black Sea shipping raised concerns about the security of grain exports from the region.
The wheat market has faced competing influences from geopolitical risks and diplomatic efforts aimed at ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. US-led diplomatic initiatives raised hopes of a revival in Black Sea grain trade, prompting investment funds to liquidate positions during the week.
However, continued attacks have clouded the outlook for a sustained improvement in shipping conditions. A drone strike sank a cargo ship off Romania’s Black Sea coast, reinforcing concerns over the risks facing commercial vessels operating in the region.
“I’m still skeptical that the current diplomatic push will actually produce an end to the conflict in the near-term, especially with Russia not showing any signs of slowing their attacks,” Mike Castle, senior commodities economist at StoneX, said in a client note.
