Airbus has projected a major expansion in global freighter demand over the next two decades, forecasting that airlines and cargo operators will require 2,670 additional or replacement freighter aircraft by 2045 as ageing fleets retire and demand for time-sensitive, high-value goods drives air freight growth.
The European aircraft manufacturer said the global cargo aircraft fleet would increase 46 percent to 3,460 aircraft by 2045, underscoring the investment requirements facing the air cargo industry as international supply chains evolve and demand for faster delivery of technology-intensive goods rises.
In its 2026 Cargo Global Market Forecast, presented at the Cargo Facts Symposium in Toulouse, France, Airbus estimated that 1,580 aircraft would be needed to replace ageing freighters, while another 1,090 would provide additional capacity to accommodate expanding air cargo traffic.
The projected requirement points to a combination of fleet renewal and capacity expansion, with operators expected to balance the cost of acquiring new aircraft against the use of converted passenger planes to meet freight demand.
Airbus forecasts that the 2,670 aircraft requirement will comprise 1,140 single-aisle freighters, 860 mid-size widebody aircraft and 670 large widebody freighters. Of the total, 970 are expected to be new-build aircraft, while 1,700 would be passenger aircraft converted for cargo operations.
The projected demand reflects the economics of an industry in which fleet age, operating costs and cargo capacity are becoming increasingly important to operators seeking to sustain profitability while expanding their networks.
Airbus expects air cargo traffic to grow at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent over the next 20 years, outpacing the forecast 2.9 percent compound annual growth rate for the freighter fleet. The difference suggests that operators will need to improve fleet utilisation and capacity efficiency alongside the addition of aircraft.
The manufacturer said air freight had remained resilient despite elevated fuel prices, geopolitical disruptions and supply chain constraints, reflecting its importance to industries that depend on speed and reliability to move goods across borders.
Although air cargo accounts for less than one percent of global trade by weight, it carries more than 30 percent of trade by value, according to Airbus. This disproportionate contribution reflects the role of air freight in transporting high-value products, including electronics, advanced technology goods and other shipments for which delivery speed is critical.
The value of computers and high-technology goods transported by air has doubled over the past three years, reaching 15 percent in 2026, Airbus reported, highlighting the growing importance of technology-related shipments to the cargo market.
The trend provides a commercial rationale for continued investment in freighter capacity, particularly on routes linking major manufacturing centres with consumer markets. However, fleet expansion will also depend on operators’ ability to manage fuel expenses, aircraft acquisition costs and demand fluctuations across international trade lanes.
Asia-Pacific is expected to remain the leading region for international air cargo traffic, with routes linking the region to North America forecast to grow by 3.8 percent annually, followed by routes connecting Asia-Pacific with Europe.
North America and Asia-Pacific will also account for the largest shares of projected aircraft demand, requiring 925 and 850 freighters, respectively. Their combined requirement of 1,775 aircraft represents about two-thirds of global projected demand, positioning the two regions as the principal centres of investment in cargo fleet renewal and expansion.
Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States are expected to require 515 freighters, while Latin America will account for 165 aircraft, the Middle East 125 and Africa 90.
Africa’s projected requirement is comparatively modest, representing about 3.4 percent of the global total. Nevertheless, the forecast points to potential demand for additional cargo capacity as trade networks develop and operators assess the need to replace older aircraft.
For the global aviation industry, the projected requirement also highlights the importance of passenger-to-freighter conversions. With 1,700 converted aircraft expected to make up the majority of required deliveries, conversion programmes are likely to remain a significant part of the industry’s response to rising demand, alongside investment in new-build freighters.
The outlook ultimately places fleet renewal at the centre of the market’s long-term growth. With 1,580 aircraft needed to replace older models, a substantial portion of projected demand will arise not solely from expanding freight volumes but from the need to maintain operating capacity as existing aircraft retire.
