Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to generate $15 billion in additional economic value from sixth-generation (6G) mobile networks by 2040, representing just 0.3 per cent of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP), as differences in infrastructure development and technology adoption threaten to limit the continent’s share of the next wave of digital growth.
The projection, contained in a new report by the Global System for Mobile Communications Association (GSMA), is considerably lower than the economic gains expected in other regions, with Greater China forecast to generate $390 billion, North America $290 billion and Europe $225 billion from the next generation of mobile connectivity.
The report, titled Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G, estimates that 6G could contribute an additional $1.24 trillion to the global economy by 2040, equivalent to 0.7 per cent of global GDP. However, it cautions that the scale of economic benefits across regions will depend on the pace of adoption, national infrastructure and the ability of businesses to integrate the technology into their operations.
Unlike previous generations of mobile networks, 6G is expected to incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) into its core architecture, allowing networks to support intelligent decision-making, industrial automation, robotics, integrated sensing and communication, as well as connections between terrestrial and satellite systems.
These capabilities are expected to create new opportunities for businesses by improving productivity, supporting automated industrial processes and enabling digital services that require faster and more intelligent connectivity.
However, capturing these benefits could prove more difficult for economies where network infrastructure, investment capacity and enterprise adoption remain limited.
The challenge is reflected in the GSMA’s Mobile Economy Africa 2026 report, which found that approximately 63 per cent of Africans live within mobile broadband coverage but do not use mobile internet, while nine per cent remain outside mobile broadband coverage.
The findings suggest that extending network infrastructure alone may not be sufficient to translate connectivity into economic benefits, with affordability, digital skills and wider adoption also influencing how individuals and businesses use available technology.
The GSMA’s latest 6G assessment identifies manufacturing and financial services as the biggest beneficiaries of the technology globally, accounting for 20 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively, of its additional economic contribution in 2040.
Construction is projected to account for another 13 per cent, while information and communications technology will contribute 12 per cent.
The projected economic gains are expected to come from five key areas, including connectivity for future artificial intelligence (AI) systems, industrial automation and robotics, enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access, integrated sensing and communication, and non-terrestrial networks designed to extend connectivity to underserved areas.
“Together, these capabilities will enable businesses to improve productivity, develop new products and services, and expand digital innovation into sectors and locations that today’s networks cannot fully support,” the report added.
For sub-Saharan Africa, the extent to which these opportunities translate into economic growth will depend on how quickly businesses develop the capacity to integrate such technologies into their operations.
Spectrum availability also presents another challenge to the deployment of next-generation networks.
The GSMA estimates that insufficient access to spectrum could put as much as $520 billion, representing 42 per cent of the projected global economic contribution of 6G, at risk by 2040.
Mid-band spectrum is expected to account for 70 per cent of 6G’s economic contribution, reflecting its importance in providing the network capacity required for advanced digital services. Low-band spectrum is projected to contribute approximately 25 per cent, particularly in extending coverage to rural communities, indoor locations and areas where higher frequencies have limited reach.
To address the potential constraints, the industry association is urging governments to make at least 2GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030, alongside the release of the 600MHz band to strengthen coverage and support connected devices.
It is also calling for clear national spectrum roadmaps to give mobile operators sufficient certainty to plan investments and prepare for next-generation network deployment.
The recommendations come ahead of the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027 (WRC-27), where international spectrum decisions are expected to shape the availability of frequencies needed for future mobile networks.
John Giusti, chief regulatory officer at the GSMA, said more than $500 billion of the projected global economic value of 6G would depend on spectrum decisions governments make today.
Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth…Getting spectrum policy right now will be essential to making that happen,” Giusti added.
He said the next generation of mobile technology would support AI, industrial development and higher productivity across different sectors, but warned that the benefits were not guaranteed.
The GSMA said governments and regulators would need to make timely spectrum allocations to ensure their economies could participate in the next phase of mobile connectivity and capture the economic opportunities associated with its deployment.
