Nigeria: Hemmed in by hunger, food insecurity, et al

The United Nations’ agency — Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) — a few days ago warned that some 25 million Nigerians stand the risk of very severe hunger by the third quarter of 2023. An earlier report by the FAO in October 2022 had ‘confirmed’ an existing 17 million famished Nigerians, and cautioned that unless urgent efforts were made to stem the ugly tide, the figure would hit 25 million by August 2023. The UN agency identified the drivers of the troubling scenario to include hyper inflationary trend, persistent conflicts, climate change and high and rising food prices. It noted that access to food has been affected by unrelenting terrorism in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (BAY) states, as well as banditry and kidnappings in Katsina, Sokoto and Niger states.

The FAO noted that out of the 17 million people currently facing famine three million are in the BAY states, adding that without immediate actions by government and other stakeholders, the figure might rise to 4.4 million in a few months’ time. Unfortunately, none of the driving factors of this hunger, food insecurity and fast-spreading impoverishment, is amenable to immediate or short term solution. For instance, after its meeting on Tuesday, January 24, 2023, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) said it was of the view that although inflation rate moderated very marginally in December 2022, “the economy remained confronted with the risk of high inflation with adverse consequences on the general standard of living.” Consequently, the apex bank maintained its hawkish policy stance, and raised its MPR to a 21-year-high of 17.5 percent — a hundred basis points raise from end-2022 position (16.5 percent).

In the same vein, rising food prices — a key driver of high inflation — is not subject to easy control of the government or any vested interest for that matter. In fact, more than anything else, climate change factors (including extreme weather conditions, natural disasters — flooding, drought, desertification, pests, etc.) severely affect food production and supply. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) easily show that food inflation has been the major component of the rising consumer price index (CPI) for a couple of years now. Thus, the CPI which stood at 15.6 percent in January 2022 rose steadily to stand at 21.47 as at November 2022; on a similar trajectory food inflation which stood at 19.57 percent in September 2021, hit 23.34 percent in September 2022 — a year-on-year surge of 3.34 percent. As at end-December 2022, food inflation stood at 23.75 percent; and from all indications, it is very unlikely that the current inflationary surge will subside soon. This is underpinned by the impact of inflationary triggers like persisting fuel scarcity, stubbornly high gas and energy prices, uncertainties associated with build-up of high Naira liquidity as the 2023 general elections approach.

Another critical trigger and driver of food scarcity, insecurity, is not abating; it is rather escalating and assuming worrisome dimensions as the 2023 general elections draw nearer. Most ‘food baskets’ of the country (that is rich farm/agricultural belts) are practically ‘war zones’ — with virtually all farms deserted. As of October 2022, the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) had identified over one million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in 180,307 households in Nigeria’s north-central and north-west zones. Countrywide, these figures get more alarming! According to FAO’s Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Nigeria, Matthias Schmale, “The food security and nutrition situation across Nigeria is deeply concerning. I have visited nutrition stabilisation centres filled with children, who are fighting to stay alive. We must act now to ensure they and others get the life-saving support they badly need.”

Further giving a breakdown of this horrid situation, the FAO chief said: “Children are the most vulnerable to food insecurity. Approximately six of the 17 million food insecure Nigerians today are children under the age of five, living in Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara states. There is a serious risk of mortality among children, attributed to acute malnutrition. In the BAY states alone, the number of children suffering from acute malnutrition is expected to increase from 1.75 million in 2022 to two million in 2023.” Yet, another report (the Global Report on Food Crises, GRFC, 2022) says Nigeria was one of the countries with the highest number of people in the food crisis. The report which covered 21 states and the Federal Capital Territory was emphatic that 12.04 million Nigerians were facing acute food insecurity between October and December 2021. That figure certainly rose sharply all through 2022, fuelled by (among other factors) the ripple effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and devastating floods that swept across the country.

The GRFC report also attributed the mounting hunger and food insecurity in Nigeria to the country’s food-import dependence on Ukraine and Russia — which the war between them had triggered food insecurity globally. Nigeria’s imports from Ukraine include items such as milk, wheat, mackerel, herrings, and other fish products; while it imports some vaccines from Russia. The raging war and its attendant national alignments and alliances on both sides of the war ‘divide’, coupled with mounting socio-economic sanctions against Russia, all combined to disrupt global trade/trading — leading to acute shortage of some goods in some countries of the world.

As the Russia-Ukraine war lingers, Nigeria, though geographically very far from the war zone, has become one of the worst affected nations by the (ripple) effects of the confrontation. The sharp rise in the price of crude oil that had turned a ‘curse’ for Nigeria, is one of the fallouts of the war. All through 2022 and to date, the price of crude oil in the international market has remained around US$100 per barrel. Rather than reaping windfall from this high oil price, Nigeria has more than spent all its incomes on importation of refined oil products from various parts of the globe. And this lingering scenario has rather impoverished this Africa’s largest economy — leaving it debt-ridden. In the 2023 Federal Government of Nigeria’s budget, a huge sum of over three trillion naira is to be ‘spent’ on fuel subsidy, for the first half of the year. This means that there is no end in sight yet for the importation of refined oil products; and so, the controversial, opaque and fraud-ridden subsidy regime goes on ad nauseam.

In the 2022 Global Hunger Index, Nigeria ranked 103rd out of 121 countries assessed — with a score of 27.30, Nigeria was adjudged to have a level of hunger that is “serious”. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS’s) surveys also bear out this pathetic state of affairs. Thus, highlights of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) survey by the NBS in 2022 revealed that: 63 percent of persons living within Nigeria (a whopping 133 million people) were multidimensionally poor. The National MPI was 0.257, indicating that poor people in Nigeria experience just over one-quarter of all possible deprivations.

Unfortunately, the crippling hunger, poverty and insecurity situation in Nigeria hardly show prospects of abatement: many of the triggers of the horrible situation are even beyond the ken of the current federal administration. Exogenous factors like wars in other climes that unleash painful impacts on the local scene are certainly beyond Nigeria’s control. Natural disasters such as massive flooding, erosion, desertification are obviously beyond the purview of the powers that be in Nigeria. Above all, the outgoing administration has chosen its agenda and priority in the remaining few months of its tenure; namely, conduct of general elections, national census and hand over of political power. All other issues are obviously on the ‘back of the envelope.’!

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