The Nigerian domestic crude supply regime is showing a mismatch between what oil producers are offering and what refiners are actually taking, with the Dangote Refinery accepting only 52.6 million barrels of the 68.1 million barrels offered to it in the second quarter of 2026.
The 15.5 million-barrel gap, equivalent to about 22.8 percent of the crude offered to the refinery, highlights a commercial and logistical challenge emerging alongside the Federal Government’s drive to ensure adequate crude supply to domestic refineries.
The data, released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on Monday, showed that producers offered Dangote more crude than its estimated quarterly requirement of about 63 million barrels.
Yet the refinery ultimately accepted 52.6 million barrels, representing about 78 percent of the volume offered.
The development indicates that improving compliance with the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) does not automatically translate into equivalent volumes being delivered into refinery tanks, as commercial terms, crude specifications, logistics and other operational considerations influence actual offtake.
Supply compliance rises, but offtake gap remains
NUPRC said oil producers offered 68.1 million barrels of crude and condensate to Dangote in Q2, accounting for about 98 percent of all crude volumes offered to domestic refineries during the period.
Across the domestic refining market, producers supplied 53.7 million barrels between April and June, translating into a 97.4 percent compliance rate with their DCSO.
The commission attributed the improved performance to increased domestic crude production and the emergence of long-term crude supply arrangements supported by bankable Sales and Purchase Agreements (SPAs).
But the difference between offers and actual refinery intake underscores the next challenge for Nigeria’s domestic refining ambitions: turning crude availability into predictable commercial supply.
While producers can be required to make crude available under the DCSO framework, refiners still have to accept and take delivery of barrels based on commercial and operational considerations.
NUPRC acknowledged the issue, saying the gap between the volume offered to Dangote and the quantity accepted underscores the need for continued coordination on commercial terms and logistics.
April, June outperform May
The quarterly figures also reveal month-to-month swings in domestic crude deliveries.
In April, producers were allocated 18.13 million barrels but offered 19.31 million barrels, while refineries received 20.88 million barrels. This represented a delivery rate of 114.9 percent against the monthly allocation.
Performance weakened in May.
Producers were allocated 18.78 million barrels and offered 23.19 million barrels, but actual deliveries fell to 14.23 million barrels, representing only 75.8 percent compliance.
June recovered strongly, with producers allocated 18.17 million barrels and offering 26.84 million barrels. Refineries received 18.61 million barrels, equivalent to 102.4 percent performance against the allocation.
The fluctuations point to the difficulty of maintaining consistent crude flows even as overall quarterly compliance improves.
The NUPRC said the improvement in DCSO performance coincided with increased local crude production and the signing of long-term crude supply agreements between producers and domestic refiners.
The agreements, backed by bankable SPAs, are expected to reduce transactional friction and give refiners greater certainty over future crude availability.
The DCSO is backed by Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which provides the regulatory framework for ensuring that domestic refineries have access to Nigerian crude.
NUPRC said it would continue enforcing the obligation while using monthly stakeholder consultations to assign producers specific volumes to offer to licensed domestic refineries.
The mechanism operates under a “willing buyer, willing seller” framework, meaning regulatory allocation does not eliminate the commercial negotiations required before crude is actually purchased and delivered.
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