Ben Eguzozie
A flurry of elections coming up this year in Africa pose challenges and opportunities for the continent’s political stability, according to a new report by Allianz Commercial.
The Allianz report said most of the elections will be in Southern Africa including Botswana, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa. West Africa will hold the second most elections in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, and Mali. In North Africa, Mauritania, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia are set to host elections. Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan, Chad, and Rwanda in Central and Eastern Africa are scheduled to cast votes.
In recent years, and 2023 was no different, the continent hit geopolitical risk headlines, with Niger and Gabon experiencing coup d’états. In Sudan, a civil war has led to the displacement of eight million people, including six million within the country — the largest internal displacement crisis in the world.
According to Allianz Commercial, the South African elections in May are a potential flashpoint. Polls indicate votes for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) could dip below 50 percent, forcing it into a coalition — a first at the national level — after being in power for 30 years.
Etienne Cheret, regional practice group leader, crisis management, France and Africa, at Allianz Commercial says “South Africa suffers from high unemployment, particularly among the young, and significant wealth inequality”.
Available data from Statista says as of the fourth quarter of 2023 (Q4 2023), South Africa’s unemployment rate stood at 32.1 percent. The majority of unemployed individuals only have education level below matriculation (or grade 12), while those that had finished their matriculation year represented around 34 percent.
Additionally, Cheret said crime, corruption, and blackouts have caused widespread frustration in the rainbow nation.
“There is already a high level of disillusionment among the population, so we are watching the situation very closely,” the regional practice group leader, crisis management France and Africa at Allianz Commercial, said.
In another breadth, of the 10 countries in the world with the highest unemployment rates in 2023, nine were in sub-Saharan Africa.
There is a close intersection between election fall-outs and rising unemployment, terrorism or geopolitical risks. Allianz Commercial says the epicentre of terrorism has moved from the Middle East and North Africa to sub-Saharan Africa — the most affected region globally — and is largely concentrated on the Sahel region. Burkina Faso is the country most impacted by terrorism, with deaths increasing by 68 percent to almost 2,000 people — a quarter of all terrorist deaths globally.
“In Africa, peacekeeping forces have been withdrawing from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia as well as from countries in the unstable Sahel region. This risks creating security vacuums, which could then be exploited by armed groups and militants,” added Cheret, the Allianz regional practice group leader for crisis management in France and Africa.
