As investors assess the 2026 financial performance of Nigeria’s leading banks, Access Holdings Plc and United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA) stand out for the scale of their international operations and the growing contribution of foreign subsidiaries to group earnings.

 

The central question is whether these two banking groups can turn their extensive overseas franchises into a sustainable advantage over competitors whose earnings remain more concentrated in Nigeria, including GTCO and Zenith Bank.

 

The answer will depend on earnings quality, asset quality, capital efficiency, foreign-exchange movements and management’s ability to meet regulatory requirements without sacrificing the value of profitable international businesses.

 

Naira devaluation: The hidden value of foreign investments

The sharp depreciation of the naira in 2023 and 2024 materially increased the naira value of foreign assets and earnings held by Nigerian banking groups. Fitch Ratings highlighted this development in its September 2026 analysis of African banking groups.

 

For banks that acquired foreign subsidiaries when the naira was stronger, the economic implications are significant. Their original naira investments may have secured ownership of valuable foreign-currency assets and earnings streams whose naira equivalents have since increased.

 

This does not automatically translate into a realised accounting gain or cash available for dividends. Nevertheless, it strengthens the case for examining the returns generated by these investments relative to their original cost and current carrying value.

 

The same currency movement can also increase the naira value of qualifying foreign investments relative to shareholders’ funds, creating regulatory challenges even without further acquisitions.

 

That is the paradox of international expansion: naira depreciation can enhance the naira value of foreign earnings while simultaneously complicating compliance with investment limits.

 

Access Holdings: Visible steps towards compliance

Access Holdings has become a clear example of the tension between foreign earnings growth and regulatory discipline.

 

Management disclosed foreign-investment exposure of approximately 19.3 percent, against the 10 percent limit it identified under Section 19(8)(c) of the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA). The group also linked its FY2025 dividend restriction to outstanding regulatory requirements.

 

Importantly, Access has moved beyond simply acknowledging the issue.

 

In July 2026, Access Bank sold a 7.44 percent stake in Access Bank Ghana, transferring 12,085,318 shares to a wider pool of investors. Its ownership fell from 93.40 percent to approximately 85.96 percent, leaving it firmly in control of the Ghanaian subsidiary. The transaction received the necessary regulatory approvals, including a no-objection from the Bank of Ghana.

 

This is a tangible step towards capital optimisation and regulatory remediation. It demonstrates that Access can reduce its stake in a foreign subsidiary without necessarily abandoning the market or surrendering operational control.

 

The sale does not, by itself, establish that the overall foreign-investment limit has been met. Further measures may be required, and the transaction price was not disclosed. Nevertheless, it represents visible progress towards addressing the issue.

 

The commercial rationale for retaining profitable international operations is clear. Fitch reported that Access’s foreign subsidiaries contributed approximately 48 percent of group net income in 2025, up from 30 percent in 2021. Foreign operations accounted for 51 percent of group assets at the end of 2025.

 

In Q1 2026, Access Bank UK reported profit after tax of ₦83.8 billion, compared with ₦52 billion for the Nigerian banking operation.

 

Access’s challenge, therefore, is not simply to reduce its foreign-investment exposure. It is to achieve regulatory compliance while preserving the earnings power of a valuable international franchise.

 

UBA: an international earnings powerhouse

UBA’s foreign operations are even more prominent in its earnings mix. Fitch reported that foreign subsidiaries contributed approximately 77 percent of group net income in 2025, up from 44 percent in 2024, while accounting for 52 percent of total assets.

 

This provides substantial geographic diversification, although Fitch noted that the 2025 earnings contribution was amplified by weaker domestic performance.

 

A preliminary examination of UBA’s FY2025 audited parent-bank accounts suggests foreign-subsidiary investments of approximately ₦258.56 billion against parent-bank shareholders’ equity of approximately ₦2.223 trillion, producing an indicative ratio of 11.63 percent.

 

This is a useful indicator for further scrutiny, not a confirmed regulatory breach. The applicable regulatory calculation may use different qualifying investment values and a different definition of shareholders’ funds.

 

UBA’s decision not to pay a final dividend for FY2025 was attributed by management to the costs and provisioning associated with exiting regulatory forbearance. Its H1 2026 reporting timetable has also involved regulatory clearance. Neither development, on its own, proves that UBA faces the same foreign-investment issue as Access.

 

The market therefore needs clear disclosures on UBA’s qualifying foreign investments, capital position and dividend capacity. Its international earnings base is significant, but its precise regulatory position must be established from the relevant regulatory returns and filings.

 

Could Access and UBA outperform GTCO and Zenith?

The comparison is not simply between international and domestic banks. GTCO and Zenith also have foreign operations and strong earnings franchises.

 

The distinction lies in the relative contribution of overseas businesses and the extent to which each group can diversify its earnings beyond Nigeria.

 

For 2025, Nairametrics reported the following foreign-subsidiary profit-before-tax (PBT) figures:

 

Banking group                     Foreign-subsidiary PBT

UBA                                   ₦671.1 billion

Access Holdings                     ₦571.3 billion

GTCO                                   ₦375.3 billion

Zenith Bank                             ₦331.8 billion

These figures highlight the scale of the foreign earnings engines at Access and UBA. However, they represent subsidiary-level contributions and should not be confused with consolidated group profit. The accounting basis and any consolidation adjustments also matter.

The argument for Access and UBA is that their broader international franchises could provide additional earnings resilience if Nigerian interest rates decline and domestic margins come under pressure.

Foreign subsidiaries can generate income in different currencies and economic environments, potentially cushioning weakness in the home market. However, international operations also bring credit, country, integration and regulatory risks. Lower interest rates abroad can compress margins, while currency translation gains are not guaranteed to recur.

GTCO and Zenith, meanwhile, benefit from strong domestic franchises, established customer relationships and profitable foreign businesses of their own. GTCO’s audited H1 2026 results, for example, showed group profit before tax of ₦603.03 billion, although profit after tax declined year on year. Its foreign subsidiaries generated ₦262.6 billion in interest income, while Nigerian operations remained the main source of interest-income growth.

The case for Access and UBA is therefore one of potential relative advantages through international diversification, not a guarantee that they will outperform GTCO or Zenith.

From bold expansion to harvesting the returns

The next stage is arguably more important than the acquisition phase itself. The task is to extract greater value from the assets already acquired: integrate operations, eliminate duplication, improve funding efficiency, strengthen risk controls and increase returns on invested capital.

Fitch has described Access’s strategy as moving towards consolidation and optimisation after years of rapid cross-border expansion. That transition is consistent with management’s need to rebalance qualifying foreign-investment exposure while preserving control of, and earnings from, profitable subsidiaries.

For UBA, the challenge is to sustain the substantial contribution from foreign subsidiaries while clarifying its regulatory position and ensuring that earnings translate into adequate capital, cash flow and shareholder distributions.

Naira depreciation has made the economic significance of these franchises more visible in reported naira terms. Where the original investment was made when the naira was stronger, the group may now own foreign assets and earnings streams whose naira equivalents are substantially greater. This does not guarantee a realised gain, but it reinforces the case for evaluating these banks on the long-term returns generated by their international investments rather than on short-term currency movements alone.

What the audited H1 2026 results must reveal

The market should focus on five issues when assessing these banking groups:

• Earnings quality: recurring interest income and fees versus one-off gains and currency translation effects.

• Foreign-subsidiary profitability: which businesses generate the strongest returns after tax, impairments and minority interests.

• Asset quality: whether higher domestic impairments are offset by healthy foreign operations.

• Regulatory compliance: whether Access has reduced its qualifying exposure and what UBA’s actual position is under the applicable methodology.

• Dividend capacity: whether reported profits can translate into sustainable shareholder distributions after regulatory and capital requirements are met.

These measures will be more informative than headline profit alone.

Conclusion: international earnings power must translate into shareholder value

Access Holdings and UBA have built substantial foreign banking franchises whose importance has increased alongside the depreciation of the naira. The resulting earnings diversification and foreign-currency-linked assets may provide a competitive advantage as domestic interest rates and banking margins evolve.

Access has taken a visible step towards compliance through its Ghana sell-down while retaining control of the subsidiary. UBA’s extensive international earnings base also warrants close attention, although its precise foreign-investment exposure remains unconfirmed.

GTCO and Zenith remain formidable competitors, with strong domestic businesses and meaningful foreign earnings of their own.

The decisive question is which group can combine sustainable profits, effective capital allocation, regulatory clarity and reliable dividends. The audited H1 2026 results will help investors determine whether international expansion is translating into durable shareholder value.

In the next phase of Nigerian banking, foreign earnings may distinguish the leaders, but disciplined capital allocation, sound asset quality and demonstrable regulatory compliance will determine the quality of that advantage.

 

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