Onome Amuge

Africa’s mineral wealth ,long touted as the bedrock of its industrial and mining future, is once again in the global spotlight. But as investors eye an increase in demand for cobalt, lithium, gold, and rare earth elements critical to the green and digital transition, the continent’s mining renaissance is colliding with old realities, including  political instability, opaque regulation, and fragile governance.

A new report by Verified Market Research, a global consulting firm, projects that the African mining market, valued at $508.33 billion in 2024, will soar to $847.63 billion by 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6 percent. Yet the same report raised concerns that political volatility, inconsistent regulation, and governance gaps continue to undermine the very investment momentum needed to unlock that potential.

As Western economies race to secure supply chains for green technologies, Africa’s mineral-rich nations, from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to South Africa and Nigeria, are finding themselves at the centre of a new global contest.

China remains the dominant player, controlling large swathes of cobalt and copper production through long-term stakes and infrastructure-for-minerals deals. But Western governments and corporations are now stepping up efforts to diversify sourcing amid geopolitical risks.

In this shifting landscape, African governments are being urged to reimagine mining policies, not just to attract investment, but to ensure that local economies capture more value from their resources.

“Global demand for critical minerals is rising exponentially, but Africa’s challenge is to convert that demand into domestic industrial growth,” said Emmanuel Eke, an energy and mining economist based in Johannesburg. 

Among the countries positioning for change is Nigeria, whose mining sector, long overshadowed by oil, has been gathering momentum. Once contributing less than 0.5 per cent to GDP, mining now accounts for about 1.8 per cent, according to the Ministry of Solid Minerals Development.

Buoyed by this progress,  Dele Alake, Nigeria’s minister of solid minerals, has set an ambitious goal of pushing the sector’s share of GDP to 3 per cent in the near term. Speaking ahead of the 10th Nigeria Mining Week in Abuja (October 13–15, 2025), Alake described the transformation as a journey from obscurity to opportunity.

The President Bola Tinubu-led  administration stated that it has embarked on wide-ranging reforms aimed at derisking investment and improving transparency. These include:

• Strengthening the Solid Minerals Development Fund (SMDF) to stimulate private sector financing;
  
• Launching a Nigerian Mineral Resources Decision Support System (NMRDS) — a digital portal offering investors access to real-time geological data;
  
• Upgrading the Mining Cadastral Office for faster, more transparent licensing;
  
• Deploying mining marshals to combat illegal mining and protect host communities;
  
• Introducing new Community Development Agreement (CDA) guidelines to ensure fair benefit-sharing;
  
• And establishing the Nigerian Mining Corporation to facilitate state participation in key ventures.
  

The reforms, analysts say, mark a shift from Nigeria’s previous approach, where fragmented data, outdated regulations, and opaque licensing hindered investment.

Meanwhile, across Africa, the mining boom is unfolding in a context of deep structural contradictions. On one hand, higher commodity prices, spurred by demand for battery metals and renewable technologies, are drawing record levels of foreign interest. On the other, persistent instability in countries like Sudan, Mali, and parts of the DRC continues to deter investors wary of policy reversals, expropriation risks, or outright conflict.

Verified Market Research warns that political instability remains the single greatest drag on Africa’s mining ambitions. “Frequent changes in government, civil unrest, and conflict create an unpredictable environment for mining investments. When policies shift rapidly, investors lose confidence in the long-term viability of their projects,”the report noted. 

The costs are significant. In Mozambique, insurgent activity has forced the suspension of several gas and mining projects. In the DRC, disputes over royalties and taxation have sparked tensions with major operators. Meanwhile, in West Africa, the wave of military coups has raised concerns over contract sanctity and regional coordination.

Regulatory inconsistency compounds these risks. In some jurisdictions, mining codes change without consultation, while overlapping authorities lead to delays in permitting and licensing.

“Unpredictable royalty regimes and shifting tax frameworks make it difficult for companies to plan,” said Claire Mensah, an Africa-focused commodities analyst with London-based CRU Group. 

Corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency remain entrenched obstacles. Verified Market Research reports that unofficial payments to expedite permits and approvals are still common in several African countries;practices that add cost and reputational risk for global investors.

Such governance challenges also skew local value capture. Despite decades of mining, many African nations still export raw ores with minimal beneficiation, forfeiting potential revenue from refining and manufacturing.

However, efforts to reverse this trend are seen to be underway. South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia are promoting domestic processing of minerals like platinum and diamonds. Zambia has signaled a push into battery manufacturing. Nigeria’s roadmap, too, places heavy emphasis on beneficiation by processing minerals locally to feed its growing industrial base.

Ironically, the minerals driving Africa’s new mining boom are also central to the global energy transition, creating both opportunity and tension. The continent holds the key to decarbonisation technologies; yet mining itself remains one of its most carbon-intensive sectors.

Environmental regulation, though improving, remains uneven. Verified Market Research points out that stringent environmental laws may require substantial investments in compliance measures, and unclear or shifting regulations can lead to delays and additional costs.”

In Nigeria, the government’s new Sustainability Framework for Solid Minerals aims to align exploration and extraction with global environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. Minister Alake has emphasised that “sustainability is no longer optional; it’s a condition for competitiveness.”

Yet in practice, balancing environmental protection with economic imperatives remains a formidable task. Communities in Nigeria’s gold-rich Zamfara and Niger states have long raised concerns about unsafe mining practices and pollution.

Despite the risks, capital is flowing back into Africa’s mining corridors. Canadian, Chinese, and Australian firms remain active, while Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are emerging as new entrants seeking exposure to energy transition metals.

In Nigeria, a growing number of mid-tier explorers are pursuing lithium, gold, and tantalite projects. Lagos-based financial institutions are also beginning to view mining as a credible asset class, buoyed by data transparency and regulatory reforms.

Still, the investment calculus is delicate. “Investors are looking for jurisdictions that combine geological promise with governance predictability. Africa has the first in abundance; it’s the second that remains elusive,” said James Godfrey, a mining investor based in London.