These days, the media space in Nigeria is saturated with economic statistics showing that the country has literally arrived at its Eldorado, economically. Surprisingly, the figures being flaunted are given to portray a lot of intertemporal comparisons, showing that the current situation is the best in several years.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is hyping that the country’s stock of external reserves has hit a whopping $50.10 billion — announcing that the amount is the highest in the past 17 years. At the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has been ‘parading’ the quantum leap in the country’s capital importation: from only $5.64 billion in the first quarter 2025 to $10.37 billion in the first quarter 2026 — the highest quarterly jump in recent years, according to the NBS.
Some statistics are also pouring out into public space showing significant increases in total exports; and hence, huge trade surpluses. Specifically, NBS’ published data show that while the country’s total export was N20.59 trillion in the first quarter last year, it shot up to N21.16 trillion in the first quarter this year. And while the country’s trade surplus was N5.17 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, the figure rose to N7.50 trillion in the same period this year.
In this celebration of statistics —or ‘statistical success’— even the country’s imports were shown to have declined: from N16.64 trillion in the first quarter last year to N13.61 trillion in the same period this year. Figures are also being ‘paraded’ showing rising volumes of the country’s crude oil production/exports, as well as increasing (Federal) revenue generation courtesy of the new tax laws that recently came into effect.
Unfortunately, with all these seemingly heartening statistics, it is getting increasingly difficult to definitively pinpoint the positive impact of the much-advertised reforms of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) on the people and the polity. Truly, economic policies that make peoples’ quality of life deteriorate, are indeed punishment to them. The so-called long-run, when Nigerians would be ‘enjoying’, does not exist. This is because “in the long run, we are all dead,” according to the renowned Economics Nobel laureate, John Maynard Keynes.
This father of the popular “Keynesian Economics” insists that, if you keep saying “wait for the long run” while people are suffering unemployment and economic collapse today, that is not a helpful policy. “We have to deal with the short run problems now, because in the long run we will all be dead anyway,” the eminent British Economist posits. “Economics is about real people suffering now, not just abstract models later,” he summed up.
For the umpteenth time, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his top officials have told Nigerians to keep tightening their belts, in the hope that the economy would soon be turned around. Now, three years and more, all that is being paraded and celebrated are statistics. The impoverishment of the people; their sufferings and hardship are literally being swept under the carpet. The front burner has been taken over by politicking and political gerrymandering.
The statistics being churned out by the FGN and its agencies could at best be proof of economic growth without economic development. The huge capital importation figure being bandied about, for instance, is merely a policy-driven outcome — to the detriment of real sector operators in the country. As the foreign portfolio investment (FPI) is ballooning, foreign direct investment (FDI) is practically drying up in the country. While FPI accounted for over 95 percent of the capital importation into Nigeria in the first quarter this year, FDI was tending towards zero.
Apparently egged on by propagandist tendencies, agents of the powers that be keep on presenting a picture to show that it is already ‘Uhuru’ for Nigeria, economically. In point of fact, as the total capital importation into Nigeria was ballooning, foreign investment into the country’s production and manufacturing sector declined sharply by 50.70 percent quarter-on-quarter to $152.27 million in the first quarter 2026, down from $308.93 million in the last quarter 2025, as gleaned from the NBS data.
Further analysis of the figures shows that the sector accounted for only 1.47 percent of the total capital importation valued at $10.37 billion recorded during the review period. This vividly highlights the stifling of the productive segment of the economy through the tight monetary and very high interest rate regime sustained by the CBN in the past three years.
Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other multilateral financial institutions, have been flagging the growing poverty level in Nigeria, even as the country continued with its reform experiments. Specifically, the World Bank in its recent ‘Nigeria Development Update’ reported that poverty in Nigeria has surged to an estimated 63 percent of the population, affecting roughly 140 million people.
The global lender said “despite macroeconomic improvements and moderating inflation, deep structural challenges and recent policy adjustments continue to exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis for millions of the citizens.” The World Bank further raised concerns that multidimensional poverty and weak early childhood development outcomes “are threatening Nigeria’s long-term economic potential.”
While the statistics being paraded and celebrated by the FGN and its agencies amount to self-glorification, it is high time the powers that be began to closely consider the plight and wellbeing of the people seriously. The real measure here, the Human Development Index, HDI, asks: “Is the economy serving people, or are people serving the economy?”
After three years of fuel subsidy removal, a core policy of the FGN, what has become of the price of the commodity today? The price of premium motor spirit (PMS) has moved from below N200 per litre in May 2023 to about N1350 as of today. The escalating price of airplane fuel (Jet-A1) has attained a crisis point: cancellation of scheduled flights, and demonstrations at some airports in the country by stakeholders. What about cooking gas? Many households are now resorting to using charcoal and firewood. The price of the commodity has gone through the rooftop, and beyond the reach of most Nigerians.
The so-called war against inflation being waged by the CBN in managing the general price levels in the economy appears to have been lost. Both core and food inflation have kept the upwards trajectory—weakening the purchasing power of the citizenry indeterminately. Truly, the high and rising inflationary trend remains in place, impoverishing people in millions, as warned by the IMF and World Bank.
This is why the national minimum wage deal of N70,000 struck by the powers that be and Organised Labour, has remained “dead on arrival.” The worth of the wage amounted to a shattering of the standard of living of the earners: whether expressed in FX terms or inflation-deflated terms. As of 2023, the extant minimum wage of N30,000 was worth about $65 (at N450/$); but the current minimum wage of N70,000 is worth about only $52, in line with the ruling exchange rate of N1350/$. Where lies the wellbeing of the wage earner?
While the CBN is celebrating the ballooning external reserves, the underlining policy of a tight monetary stance is stifling a lot of real sector operators. Also, while the ‘surging’ FPI is being hyped and deployed in moderating the Naira value at the foreign exchange (FX) market, owners of FDI are literally turning their backs on Nigeria. This pattern needs to be changed; and Nigeria will attract “patient money” for real development. The current statistics being celebrated do not portray any positive impacts of the FGN’s reforms on the people. A word is enough for the wise!
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Marcel Okeke, a practising economist and consultant in Business Strategy & Sustainability based in Lagos, is a former Chief Economist at Zenith Bank Plc. He can be reached at: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com; +2348033075697
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