• Refinery now valued at N82.6trn
• Disconnect rages over high output and local pump prices
Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s exports of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel rose to record 54.63 million litres per day in September 2026, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The NMDPRA fact-sheet shows that the 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery’s combined exports increased by 14.85 million litres per day from 39.78 million litres per day in August 2026, indicating a month-on-month increase of 37.33 percent.
It translates that the total petrol production from the Dangote refinery at above 47.22 million litres daily, can potentially cover Nigeria’s average daily national consumption of about 44.4 million litres. But, operational decisions, pricing disagreements, and crude allocation splits have combined to dictate only a portion is delivered locally, thereby keeping local stock sufficiency levels tight relative to regulatory targets.
However, the figures exhibit a contrary position of the refinery’s combined domestic receipts, which declined by 22.08 percent to 39.98 million litres per day (mlpd) from 51.31mlpd in August.
This translates to higher exports above domestic receipts by about 14.65 mlpd in September, reversing the 11.53 mlpd in August, when domestic receipts were higher than exports.
The NMDPRA fact-sheet categorised the refinery’s output into domestic receipts, which are volumes received into the Nigerian market, exports, and changes in refinery stock. Hence, domestic receipts and exports together make up the refinery’s evacuation.
Details of the refinery’s combined production indicate that premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise called petrol, automotive gas oil or diesel (AGO) and aviation fuel rose by 15.68% to 97.67 million litres per day in September from 84.43 million litres per day in August.
Meanwhile, the refinery’s average capacity utilization edged up to 105.98% of its 700,000 barrels-per-day installed capacity, from 105.21% in August.
This clearly dwarfs Nigeria’s national average industrial capacity utilisation which stands at 56.53 percent.
DPRP’s exports accounted for about 57.74% of the refinery’s combined evacuation of the three products in September 2026, compared with about 43.67% in August.
The 105.98% utilisation rate was partly supported by crude inventory.
According to NMDPRA, the September utilization rate shows a crude feedstock of about 689,000 barrels per day, against 618,000 barrels per day of crude received, indicating 71,000 barrels per day difference drawn from refinery’s inventory.
According to breakdown of the data showing how the shift played out across each product, PMS production rose by 12.59% to 47.22 million litres per day from 41.94 million litres per day. Exports rose sharply by 58.99% to 15.47 million litres per day from 9.73 million litres per day. Additionally, domestic receipts declined by 20.55% to 28.50 million litres per day from 35.87 million litres per day.
Diesel (or AGO) production rose by 35.04% to 24.32 million litres per day from 18.01 million litres per day. Exports increased by 81.83% to 15.91 million litres per day from 8.75 million litres per day, while domestic receipts declined by 34.20% to 8.14 million litres per day from 12.37 million litres per day, making exports 1.95 times domestic receipts.
Aviation fuel (or jet fuel) production rose by 6.74% to 26.13 million litres per day from 24.48 million litres per day. Exports accenyuated by 9.15% to 23.25 million litres per day from 21.30 million litres per day, with domestic receipts rising to about 3.34 million litres per day from 3.07 million litres per day.
Meanwhile, jet fuel exports dictated the crossover, accounting for 87.44% of the refinery’s evacuation of the product in September. However, combined domestic receipts of petrol and diesel remained higher than their exports at 36.64 million litres per day against 31.38 million litres per day, with the gap narrowing greatly from 29.76 million litres per day in August to 5.26 million litres per day in September.
Key implications of higher exports receipts
Exporting surplus refined products (to regional African markets, Europe, the U.S., and other international destinations) brings significant hard currency (dollars) into Nigeria, boosting its trade balance and generating revenue for the refinery and the broader economy.
Disconnection between high output and local pump prices
Despite Dangote refinery ramping up production and turning the country into a net exporter, local consumers have continued to face high pump prices (surpassing N1,400 per litre in various cities) and lower direct domestic allocations of certain products like diesel and petrol. This happens because a substantial share of production is channeled to more lucrative or commercially viable export markets rather than solely saturating the local retail grid.
Domestic stock vs. export priority tension
While total petrol production from Dangote refinery (example 47.22 million litres daily) can theoretically cover average daily national consumption (44.4 million litres), operational decisions, pricing disagreements, and allocation splits mean only a portion is delivered locally, keeping local stock sufficiency levels tight relative to regulatory targets.
To wit, petroleum industry watchers are questioning the Nigerian federal government’s misdirected preference of export priority over the people’s welfare.
