SIX COUNTRIES IN AFRICA that have been under the influence of France for decades are now asserting greater sovereignty and, as part of a process of reevaluating their defence partnerships, are now at various stages of disengaging with France. These mark another step in the former colonial power’s military retreat from Africa. Of those disengaging, five are in West Africa but two are in Central Africa. While one is the Central African Republic (CAR), the other, Chad, has made its case known in a dramatic manner earlier this year. Senegal and Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire) are putting up some modicum of diplomatic finesse. Although it is now a known fact that Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have turned their backs on France after taking far-reaching measures, including the formation of the Alliance Des États du Sahel (AES) and the expulsion of French troops from their territories, the other three countries are still tied to France in some ways. For instance, French troops in Côte d’Ivoire will begin withdrawing in January 2026 as part of a shift towards strengthening its own military forces. The same applies to Senegal and Chad, in a broader trend sweeping across the Sahel West and West Africa.
New alliances formed by some former French colonies recently tend to have some ideological undertone as in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and the Central African Republic (CAR) as they sever ties with France and have been turning to Russia and thereby forging connections with the Wagner paramilitary group instead. Although Senegal’s withdrawal of foreign forces did not signify a complete break with longstanding partners, according to President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, he nonetheless emphasised that “all of Senegal’s friends will be treated like strategic partners, within the framework of open, diversified and uninhibited cooperation.” Côte d’Ivoire’s president, Alassane Ouattara, considered one of France’s closest allies in West Africa, walks a tight rope, trying to balance maintaining ties with Paris and responding to growing domestic calls for Ivorian independence. To be in his countrymen’s good reckoning as he faces his fourth term election, he has chosen to reduce his emphasis on dependency upon the French military.
The rise in anti-French sentiment, following the withdrawal of French troops from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in 2022 and 2023 after the military juntas in these countries severed defence agreements with France and a pivot towards alternative allies like Russia indeed proved instructive and seem now irreversible as significant progress has been made in the withdrawal of the French troops in the affected countries. The last batch left Mali and the Central African Republic in 2022 and Burkina Faso in 2023 while troops and jets in Chad began to withdraw at the end of 2024 after the country’s military leader cut military ties. Senegalese President Faye stated that all foreign troops would leave starting 2025. He said that Senegal’s future partnerships would be redefined.
It now appears like popular public opinions and sentiments are reshaping francophone countries’ official attitude and decisions toward France. The effects of these countries’ decisions are already having ripple effects directly on France, thus exposing the fragility of a long-term colonial master that has fed fat on the hapless former colonies for so long. This time, a stark failure of France’s Africa policy is becoming evident as seen in its fading influence in Africa, as a result of the collapse of its colonial stronghold. The AES example shows something beyond just a cessation of military alliance. It strikes at something deeper and more consequential, better described as a fundamental geopolitical transformation. Military bases have been used as one of the means of retaining a foothold in all the former French colonies, in addition to economic ties. In the latter, France, for so long, has successfully teleguided and held those countries together through common currency, the CFA, used in West and Central Africa. It has also sustained monetary unions and custom unions to hold them as common markets.
The political decisions of the leaders of francophone Africa are already forcing French corporations to rethink doing business with Africa without Paris’ support. Françafrique, often described as neocolonial, is currently under massive political and popular pressure. The resistance against Françafrique is openly challenging Paris’ military, diplomatic and economic footprint in Africa. Françafrique, a term referring to a complex and controversial network of political, economic, social and military ties between France and its former African colonies, describes a kind of special relationship built on ongoing French influence in the affected countries. The wave of anti-French sentiment across West Africa, beginning in March 2022 when Mali’s military government demanded that French troops leave the country “without delay,” has become widespread. It is clear, however, that the French government is yet to grasp the far-reaching implications. President Emmanuel Macron reportedly made a dismissive response to troop withdrawal requests, a response that deepened resentment, reinforcing the perception that Paris is unwilling to adapt to Africa’s changing political landscape.
The tardiness of France to recognise the global shift in political and economic centre of gravity will cost France dearly, going by the reemergence of a multipolar world. This will further accelerate and accentuate France’s decline, as African nations recalibrate their foreign relations and seek new strategic partnerships outside their traditional and former colonial power. This is also leading to the unravelling of Françafrique. Worse still, and unknown to authorities in France, the French military bases are no longer seen as a guarantee of security, but are widely perceived as symbols of colonial legacy and as a source of instability as France’s tactics are becoming more brazen and hurtful to their former colonies, especially as France’s global ambitions have been closely tied to its African possessions since the end of World War II. Beyond just within military cooperation, the tectonic shift has been profound in geopolitical realignment.
Although one of the ambitions of France is to become a nuclear power, its main source of uranium is from Africa. In particular, France has, for so long, exploited uranium from Niger for its own energy security while Niger was not any better in power generation. France’s waning central role in shaping those African economies and military structures is hurting its economy terribly badly. The fact that France’s influence remains embedded in economic institutions across Africa is a problem for France. For example, the currency still in use in both West and Central Africa blocs of francophone CFA zones are still being printed under the supervision of France. The central bank and mint used by nearly 25 African countries remain in France. A significant proportion of all printed money, nearly 65 percent, is held as deposits in French banks under existing bilateral agreements. In 2019, France failed in its surreptitious attempt to hoodwink West African countries into accepting the backdoor Eco currency. Its economy will suffer great shock as more and more countries free themselves from France’s vice grip. France, which has dropped its own franc since the year 2000, will have a bit of difficulty adjusting as more former colonies get untangled from France’s web of power and influence over them. The chances of France entering into debt and economic recession are high. It might also plunge the eurozone economy into a financial crisis.
France is currently facing both political and economic headwinds that are threatening the country’s stability, with no reprieve in sight. The government of Emmanuel Macron has been thoroughly shaken to its foundation from within and without. Recent events offer no hope of any immediate solution or any hope of making serious headway in 2026 on France’s budget deficit — the biggest in the euro zone. The tumult in French politics is affecting investments within the country. The wary and weary investors need reassurance and security, which have been largely elusive in Macron’s era. In less than two years, President Macron had elected five prime ministers, the latest being Sebastien Lecornu who now faces an uphill battle to pass a 2026 budget. This is in addition to protests erupting on the day he was sworn in as Prime Minister.
With France’s borrowing records, the costs have risen after Fitch downgrade, which could still lead to yet more costs. Earlier in September, Fitch, a rating agency, downgraded France’s credit rating. Other agencies could follow with nearly the same or worse scenarios. The ongoing political turmoil in France since 2024 still rocks the country as parliamentary elections proved problematic and the new PM Sebastien Lecornu struggles to pass a 2026 budget. France’s politics is in tumult and its public finances adrift, leading households and businesses into hesitancy about spending or investments. With the collapse of France’s latest government, the euro zone’s second-biggest economy is on the brink and the growth may be weakened with high borrowing costs and a debt burden becoming one of Europe’s biggest.
The recent toppling of government through lawmakers’ rejection of Macron’s hand-picked PM Francois Bayrou’s government in a no-confidence vote was another blow leading to a spectacular collapse after his failed attempt to rein in public debt.
The government of France is on the brink of collapse over planned austerity. Public services are in decline. Health professionals complain about a labour shortage in public hospitals; rural dwellers denounce the closing of rural train lines; students and academics share the sad tales of a lack of resources for public universities. A national debt at 114 percent of GDP and a budget deficit of 5.8 percent of GDP are ominous signs of a sick economy. One question now is about how long will France remain in this conundrum? Another, which is likely more germane, is whether France would have found itself in this mess if it still had those African countries that broke ranks with France under its firm control. And, looking forward, how will France cope or recover from the present economic crisis as more and more African countries disengage from France? Looking at the timeline, the precipitous fall in France’s economy is not far from the past two years since the Sahel States have broken free from the vice grip of France. It seems likely, therefore, that the collapse of France is imminent and may be tied to the ultimate freedom of those African countries yet under France’s hold. In that case, such a collapse could be irreversible and may shake the eurozone economy in an unprecedented and significant way. It looks like, for France, the unraveling has only just begun. A struggling France economy cannot help any African country to thrive or prosper. It could well be that France cannot survive without Africa. This is therefore a good time for African countries held down by France to break free and assert their sovereignty for good. The AES did it for the better. Others need to follow suit. Let France build its own economy and allow those former colonies build theirs independently, and let us see who gets better and who gets worse. The eurozone has to be worried as France’s economy goes down the drain.
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