In the face of slipping grip on old vassals
MAJORITY OF THE WORLD’S FRENCH speakers are in Africa. That seems like an achievement of historical relevance. And France may indeed be happy about that. However, it is difficult to tell if France is aware that the story is changing and the change could be more drastic in a decade or two ahead, with a reversal of French’s role as a common language within the continent. Although African nations account for a huge portion of the world’s French speakers, with estimates of over 400 million total Francophones globally, and the majority residing in Africa, recent events are undeniable pointers to a tectonic shift away from France, with accompanying shift in emphasis on French language. Already, in the distant three decades ago, out of sheer protest against the role of France for its perceived complicity in the 1994 genocide, Paul Kagame flipped the language preference in Rwanda, changing the official language from French to English.
Some may argue with some degree of validity also, that Kagame shifted Rwanda from French to English primarily for economic and geopolitical reasons, positioning the nation for global integration by embracing English as the language of business, technology, and regional trade, a language particularly dominant in the East African Community (EAC). While Kagame distanced Rwanda from French colonial influence, and the RPF leadership, many of whom grew up as English-speaking exiles in Uganda, found English more convenient, as the change officially began in 2003/2008 with English becoming an official language, Kagame’s alliance with the Commonwealth was a bold diplomatic statement. Rwanda’s June 20 to 25, 2022 hosting of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) — instead of 2020, because of pandemic — in Kigali was remarkable.
In June 2023 — following the adoption of a new constitution in a June 2023 referendum — Mali took a similar decision, officially relegating French to just a key working language. It made 13 indigenous languages official to strengthen national identity and break from colonial past. Beyond that, Mali had already commenced the process of expelling the French troops hitherto ostensibly deployed to maintain security in Mali. The decision to end a similar military pact with France has since been embarked upon with various timelines by Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. Already, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad have completed their French troop withdrawal. On January 31, 2025, French troops completed their withdrawal from Chad, marking the end of nearly 70 years of military presence in the country. France officially ended its permanent military presence in Senegal on Thursday, July 17, 2025. Côte d’Ivoire’s French troops are expected to complete their withdrawal from the country by the end of 2025. Military withdrawal seems the beginning of a long drawn decoupling as withdrawal in other areas of cooperation are already in the offing.
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — involving Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — has taken many steps, since its formation, to permanently extricate itself from the influence of France. Days ago, it inaugurated the headquarters of its new regional financial institution, the Confederation’s Investment and Development Bank (BCID-AES), in Bamako, Mali. The bank, officially launched into operation on December 23, 2025, by the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, is expected to cater to their common needs in ways similar to the one serving the regional francophone countries in West Africa, or its counterpart in the Central African region. Commencing with the initial capital of 500 billion CFA francs (approximately $899 million), BCID-AES has a mandate of funding key development initiatives of the three member countries and reducing their reliance on foreign aid, thereby strengthening their economic sovereignty.
Their priority areas appear to have been identified. The bank will finance projects in critical areas, including: energy, infrastructure, regional and cross-border connectivity, agriculture and food security as well as support for private enterprises. As part of the bold initiative on regional sovereignty and identity, the AES is ending what is described as “monetary colonialism.” To this end, the confederation is launching its own shared currency, backed by their own gold and uranium: No more need for keeping reserves in Paris. For those leaders who truly introspect, this could signal the beginning of a truly independent Africa.
For Africa, this is significant as the continent houses a large population of Francophones. West African nations of Senegal, Mali, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, Togo, Benin, (and Chad could be included for convenience because of its Sahelian location) is home to an estimated over 100 million people, arguably approaching 200 million, with their rapid population growth.
As of 2022 to 2024, the total population of the AES – comprising Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – was estimated at around 71.5 to 80 million people, particularly in mid-2024. This is significant for a region in which France is speedily losing ground. The eight member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU/UEMOA), made up of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo, all hitherto shared the West African CFA franc as their common currency for deeper economic integration. But that is changing in a significant way as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are pulling out, forming their own separate monetary union and launching their own separate currency that is not tied to France.
The shrinking of WAEMU with a combined GDP of roughly $175 billion to $180 billion in 2022 to 2024 will affect France tremendously even though AES countries have some of the lowest GDPs per capita in Africa, with figures around $600 and $900 in early 2025. CFA franc countries are generally required to deposit 50 percent of their foreign exchange reserves into an “operations account” held at the French Public Treasury, by the French central bank (Banque de France). The amount of funds from the AES countries that will no longer be deposited at the French central bank is related to their potential future withdrawal from the CFA franc currency zone. The three nations currency will henceforth no longer be pegged to the Euro or guaranteed by the French Treasury. It will, however, face an initial convertibility challenge until it finally finds its true market value in the subregional and global economy. In the long run, economic and security self-reliance, which happens to be key areas of AES priority, is expected to be accomplished despite what may be initial hiccups.
Another area in which AES countries’ formation will have a definite impact is geography. This has significant regional security implications. For instance, the total combined landmass of all 15 ECOWAS member countries is approximately 5,114,162 square kilometres. But, the combined total landmass of the AES countries alone is approximately 2,781,392 square kilometres (1,073,901 square miles), more than the total landmass for the remaining 13 ECOWAS countries combined. This, incidentally, is an area that is currently plagued with pervasive cross-border terrorist activities posing existential insecurity challenges for the West African sub-region. This will pose challenges of logistics tied to local infrastructure and regional diplomacy. It will also pose a challenge involving collaboration in fighting terrorism. In a way, the control over the new currency by the AES countries could turn out to be a great tool for successful counterterrorism within the Sahel as it could help curb terrorism financing within the AES and between it and the wider ECOWAS.
Looking more closely, it could be that the true emancipation of Africa might be coming from the AES examples as the three AES leaders seem more focused on fundamental African problems rather than political correctness. Their refusal to be allies to Western plunderers of Africa’s natural resources puts them in an awkward position in the global diplomatic setting where alignment with the West is considered key to international approval. Ibrahim Traoré’s recent speech could be a way forward for African countries yet under direct or indirect colonial influence. In particular, it could be a reference point for introspection for any country that may be taking a decision to put its neck under a new colonial yoke. Captain Traoré’s speech, delivered in Bamako, Mali, at the opening of the AES Heads of State Summit on December 23, 2025, during the second session of the College of Heads of State of the AES Confederation, was instructive. Traoré was emphatic in his words which he believed could irk some hearers. “I will apologise once again to those whom my words may offend, because I will not mince my words.” He warned of an impending uprising that could sweep across West Africa, especially going by the unfolding events. Recognising where the AES countries are coming from will provide a good background context to his speech paraphrased here.
He was not prepared for political correctness. He was raw. “You have certainly all heard of the Arab Spring, this phenomenon that has upended the geopolitics of the Arab world, starting from the Maghreb in Africa and extending to Asia. It manifested with often disastrous consequences, deaths and divisions in some places, and unprecedented political upheavals in others…. And I believe all Africans should understand what this phenomenon is, where it comes from, and “what must be done to guard against such a phenomenon.” Traoré lamented that, “unfortunately, we regret to see that some Africans are not waking up. And what I am about to say is merely my own thought, my own analysis” It is “that something is coming to West Africa, which I have called the Black Winter. The Black Winter is coming. It will be a very cold and harsh winter, a truly bloody and merciless winter, a deadly and unforgiving winter.”
These words are worth listening to. “Well, in the process of founding the AES Confederation, we could already sense and feel this cold coming, creeping in slowly, and every single day, without fail, we strive and work tirelessly to find logs, branches, and kindling to light a fire, a fire that will burn brightly and warmly, a fire that will warm the hearts of Africans everywhere, a fire that will warm the minds, the spirits, and the very blood of Africans, to unite us all together around it, to bring us closer as one people. We have also endeavoured to hunt the wild wolf, to try and use its hide to make coats, to protect us from the winter cold.” He went diplomatically allegorical, saying “we have striven to build mountains, great mountains, to break the winter wind that would descend upon our communities. Unfortunately, it must be noted that some black people are there every day, watering our tree trunks with cool water so that they cannot burn. They turn into wolves or ensure that we, the wolf hunters, cannot surprise the wolf.
“When we want to build our mountains, they break the stones so that we cannot succeed. However, winter is coming, and when winter comes, should we allow those who fight against us to come and protect themselves with the coats that we have made, with the mountains we have built, to protect us from the cold winds, or even to warm themselves together with us around the fire? What is the question we must ask ourselves? So what will become of Pan-Africanism when winter comes? Winter will come because the war is moving to West Africa. The imperialists are doing everything to put West Africa to fire with fire and blood. But from the highest levels of the state down to certain populations, either we pretend not to see the danger coming, or we ourselves are complicit in what is about to happen. Chaos could set in. I repeat, it could set in.”
Traoré was not mincing words. According to him, “many people could die. We will tragically kill each other in such an atrocious and brutal way that, in the meantime, they will be there, plundering our wealth, our resources, and imposing their will upon us. And those who survive this tragedy will have only two choices, either unite forever against imperialism or be reduced to being slaves until we eventually disappear. We must therefore guard against the winter, the black winter that is coming. We cannot understand how black people here in West Africa pray to God for terrorists to kill black populations.
We cannot understand how cowardly heads of state hide behind the media, so-called media, to discourage, insult, and stir up hatred between populations. They seek to divide the communities. On social media, they are there, and there are many of them. Why do we, as black people, seek to cultivate hatred among ourselves, and then, through hypocrisy, we call each other brothers? We must be able to tell each other the truth very bluntly. Even if it’s upsetting, we can apologize, but we need to wake up.”
Rightly said, African leaders, particularly those in West Africa, need to wake up. And the time to do so is now.
Dr. Olukayode Oyeleye, Business a.m.’s Editorial Advisor, who graduated in veterinary medicine from the University of Ibadan, Nigeria, before establishing himself in science and public policy journalism and communication, also has a postgraduate diploma in public administration, and is a former special adviser to two former Nigerian ministers of agriculture. He specialises in development and policy issues in the areas of food, trade and competition, security, governance, environment and innovation, politics and emerging economies.
