Global businesses face a more complex supply-chain risk environment as geopolitical disruptions, trade barriers, climate shocks and weakening economic signals increasingly interact, creating the potential for sharper swings in commodity prices and higher costs for companies and consumers.
A new analysis made available to Business A.M. by commodity intelligence firm Expana, warns that businesses should pay closer attention not only to sudden crises, or “black swans”, but also to large, visible risks that build gradually and are often overlooked — what it calls “grey rhinos”.
The distinction has become increasingly important as companies contend with overlapping disruptions affecting energy, shipping, agricultural commodities, manufacturing inputs and logistics.
Expana says its review of major shocks over the past four decades found at least one significant black-swan event in almost every year. It identifies financial crises, geopolitical conflict, extreme weather, pandemics, logistics disruptions, trade and tariff shocks, cyberattacks, supply disruptions and economic policy changes among the major categories.
The company argues that the bigger threat to businesses comes when an identifiable structural vulnerability is hit by a sudden external shock.
Tom Bundgaard, who leads Expana’s macroeconomic and commodity analysis, points to the US Treasury yield curve and rising US unemployment as two indicators that warrant closer attention. Expana notes that an inversion of the Treasury yield curve followed by a move back above zero has historically preceded recessions in a majority of observed cases, although it cautions that historical relationships do not guarantee future outcomes.
The company also highlights the sustained rise in US unemployment since 2024 as another potential warning signal.
Bundgaard describes the current environment as a combination of strained economic fundamentals, new tariff pressures and the Middle East crisis, arguing that the risks could become more damaging when they occur simultaneously.
The implications extend well beyond financial markets.
Geopolitical disruptions can travel through several layers of the global economy at once. Energy supply interruptions can raise fuel and electricity costs; higher energy prices can increase fertiliser and chemical costs; disruptions to shipping can raise freight and insurance expenses; and those increases can eventually feed into food and manufactured-goods prices.
Janet Lung Standing, a former chief procurement officer at Johnson Matthey and an Expana advisory board member, said geopolitical disruptions are increasingly interconnected rather than isolated.
The current combination of shipping constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US tariff measures, Chinese export controls and existing sanctions, Expana argues, can affect energy, fertilisers, logistics, insurance, chemicals and food prices simultaneously.
For businesses, that creates a difficult financial trade-off.
Diversifying suppliers, increasing inventories and developing alternative production capacity can strengthen resilience, but they also tie up capital and may increase operating costs. Maintaining a highly concentrated and lean supply chain can lower costs during normal conditions while leaving companies more exposed when a major disruption occurs.
Commodity markets illustrate the difference.
Expana points to peanuts, which are produced across more than 34 countries, as an example of a commodity with greater geographical diversification. Tree nuts, by contrast, are produced in fewer locations and can therefore be more vulnerable to regional disruptions.
Pistachios present a more complicated risk profile, with major production in Iran, Turkey, Syria, China and the United States. A buyer exposed to those origins faces not only agricultural and climate risks but also the possibility of sanctions, export restrictions or geopolitical conflict disrupting supplies.
The financial consequences can be significant.
When companies cannot secure alternative supplies, they may have to pay higher spot prices, carry more inventory or accept lower margins. Businesses with strong pricing power can pass some costs to customers, but companies operating in highly competitive markets may have less room to do so.
That makes supply-chain management increasingly relevant to investors assessing corporate earnings.
Expana’s analysis argues that companies better positioned to absorb shocks tend to have structured risk maps, early-warning systems, cross-functional decision-making and less concentrated supply bases.
The shift also changes the role of procurement departments. Decisions about supplier diversification, inventory levels, commodity hedging and alternative sourcing increasingly have direct implications for working capital, capital expenditure and profitability.
For multinational businesses, the lesson is that resilience cannot be built after a disruption has already occurred.
A black swan may be impossible to predict. But the financial exposure created by concentrated suppliers, vulnerable shipping routes, commodity dependencies and weakening economic conditions can be identified in advance.
As global trade becomes more exposed to geopolitics, climate volatility and economic fragmentation, supply-chain resilience is therefore moving from an operational concern to a boardroom financial issue — one capable of determining not only whether goods arrive, but how much they cost and how much profit companies ultimately retain.
