Nigeria recorded the world’s highest diesel price increase between February and August 2026, with prices rising 82.7 percent, as disruptions to global energy supplies intensified fuel cost pressures across developing economies, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The country also ranked fourth among countries and territories surveyed for petrol price increases, at 48.1 percent over the same period, underscoring the extent to which international energy market shocks continue to feed into domestic fuel prices.
The findings are contained in UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2026: The Geoeconomics of Development, released recently. The comparison uses fuel price data covering February 23 to August 31, 2026.
Nigeria’s diesel increase exceeded those recorded in Lebanon, where prices rose 73.6 percent, Peru at 66.7 percent and Guatemala at 66.3 percent. For petrol, Myanmar recorded the largest increase at 50.7 percent, followed by the United Arab Emirates at 49.8 percent and Malaysia at 48.4 percent.
UNCTAD said the energy shock was triggered by damage to energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which contributed to what the report described as the largest monthly loss of global energy supply on record.
Brent crude rose from about $70 per barrel to more than $110 following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. The report expects oil prices to remain more than $30 per barrel above pre-conflict levels through the end of 2026, despite releases from global petroleum reserves and increased production outside the region.
“The shock is global, but the effects are uneven,” UNCTAD said, explaining that higher energy costs erode consumers’ real incomes and constrain consumption. The steepest domestic fuel price increases have occurred predominantly in developing countries in Asia and Africa.
The price hike comes as Nigeria seeks to capture more value from its crude oil production through expanded domestic refining. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied about 50 million litres of petrol daily to the domestic market in the first half of 2026, according to Nairametrics.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), showed that average daily petrol imports fell 26 percent to 14.6 million litres in August, from 19.7 million litres in July. Separately, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed the petrol import bill dropped 96.15 percent to N87.40 billion in the first quarter of 2026, from N2.27 trillion in the corresponding period a year earlier.
UNCTAD identifies Nigeria, alongside Angola, Guyana and Kazakhstan, among oil and gas exporters that could benefit from higher global energy prices generated by the Middle East conflict. Higher crude prices can lift export receipts and government revenue, depending on production volumes, fiscal arrangements and the cost of supplying the domestic market.
But those potential gains could be diluted if more expensive refined products increase domestic costs and weaken consumer demand. The report notes that countries with insufficient domestic refining capacity are particularly exposed to the transmission of international fuel prices into local markets. Nigeria’s expanded refining capacity may reduce import dependence, but the latest price rankings indicate that exposure to the global energy shock remains substantial.
The domestic market is also still subject to regulatory and supply-chain decisions affecting petrol imports. In September, the Federal High Court in Abuja ordered the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to continue granting import licences to Matrix Energy, AA Rano and AYM Shafa, subject to statutory and regulatory requirements.
On October 9, the federal government said the 30-day petrol discount introduced by NNPC Retail would be absorbed through the retailer’s margins rather than financed from the federal budget or Federation Account. Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said the retailer would continue buying fuel from Dangote Refinery and other suppliers at market prices while taking a lower margin to fund the discount.
Beyond immediate price relief, UNCTAD points to structural changes in energy consumption as a way to limit future exposure. The report argues that Africa’s growing adoption of electric motorbikes and buses could reduce dependence on petrol and diesel, improve energy security and lessen the impact of international supply disruptions.
Global electric vehicle trade increased 11 percent in the first quarter of 2026, according to the report. UNCTAD also cites China, Nepal, Singapore and Viet Nam as examples of countries where electric vehicle adoption has helped reduce exposure to fuel shortages. It notes that at least 25 countries have introduced fuel rationing or other restrictions amid supply pressures.
The report further highlights the role of renewable energy in reducing vulnerability to fossil fuel price shocks. Citing Ember data, it notes that natural gas sets electricity prices about 15 percent of the time in Spain, compared with 89 percent in Italy.
