Grain futures begin soft on weakening fund data

Grain futures started this week much where they ended the last one, on the back foot.

The dollar obliged bulls by easing a touch, by 0.2% against a basket of currencies, so making dollar-denominated exports such as many commodities a touch more affordable.

And weather risks are still live with, in the US Plains where dryness which is threatening winter wheat expected to persist for the “next two weeks”, with “above-normal” temperatures in the six-to-15 day outlook adding to crop “stress in three-quarters of the (hard red winter wheat) belt”, said Commodity Weather Group.

Furthermore, in Argentine, where dryness has boosted prices of corn, soybeans, and soymeal, the weather is still proving less than ideal with weekend rains “very spotty”, according to Commodity Weather Group, and “rains limited to less than half of corn, soy [area] over the next 10 days”.

While there are some rains shown by models in the 11-to-15 day outlook, there is “still low confidence” in this outlook, and the precipitation would come late for crops anyway.

“Rains would limit additional late corn, soybean losses in Argentine, but yield loss to date is largely irreversible by late in the month.”

Still, gains were somewhat hard to come by, with worries in wheat, for instance, turning to the dent that higher prices have already made to demand prospects.

“Wheat prices had become deeply uncompetitive at many destinations where the US needs to sell wheat,” said Tobin Gorey at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Wheat prices in the US are beginning to price us out of global competition,” said Water Street Solutions.

The US Department of Agriculture on Thursday, in its monthly Wasde report on world crop supply and demand, trimmed its forecast for US exports this season.