Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Uganda are expected to account for 85 percent of Africa’s mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) subscriber base by 2030, as the continent’s nascent MVNO market enters a period of rapid expansion.
Across the nine African markets where MVNOs currently operate, subscriber numbers are projected to rise from about 7.9 million in 2025 to 39.6 million by 2030, according to the newly published 2026 Africa MVNO Report by Africa Analysis.
South Africa is expected to remain the continent’s largest MVNO market, reaching an estimated 14.4 million subscribers by 2030, while Nigeria is projected to follow with 10.9 million subscribers.
Kenya and Uganda are also expected to record significant growth, with their subscriber bases projected to reach between three million and 4.3 million each by 2030.
The combined growth in these four markets is expected to account for about 85 percent of the total MVNO subscriber base across the nine operational markets by the end of the forecast period.
The report, which assessed 54 African markets, however, found that the continent’s MVNO ecosystem remains at an early stage of development. Only nine markets currently have active MVNO operations, while 83 percent of the markets assessed have no operational MVNO market.
Andre Wills, Managing Director at Africa Analysis, said Africa’s large mobile subscriber base alone would not guarantee the development of sustainable MVNO markets.
“The continent already has close to 1.5 billion mobile subscriptions,” Wills said, adding that the more important consideration was whether individual markets had the regulatory framework, wholesale economics, customer-switching mechanisms and digital infrastructure required to support viable MVNO businesses.
Africa Analysis identified 21 markets as having either “high” or “very high” MVNO attractiveness based on a combination of market potential and readiness for execution.
The research also identified 14 markets where MVNOs are permitted or licences have already been issued but where no operational MVNO market currently exists.
Those markets collectively represent about 407 million mobile subscriptions, highlighting what Africa Analysis described as a substantial untapped opportunity.
However, the report stressed that regulatory approval alone was not sufficient to create a sustainable MVNO ecosystem.
Four factors to shape MVNO investment
According to the report, the development of Africa’s MVNO market will depend on four key conditions: effective mobile number portability and switching mechanisms, clear licensing frameworks, sustainable wholesale access and digital readiness.
The research said markets need low-friction mobile number portability, clear implementation timelines and effective enforcement to enable customers to switch providers easily.
Licensing regimes will also need to provide clearly defined MVNO categories, proportionate regulatory obligations and practical licensing processes.
Wholesale access was identified as another critical factor, with Africa Analysis highlighting the importance of commercially sustainable pricing, clear reference offers, service-level agreements and, where possible, access to multiple host networks.
Digital readiness, including wider adoption of 4G and 5G, eSIM availability, affordable smartphones and digital customer onboarding, will also influence the attractiveness of individual markets.
The report also cautioned against overstating the maturity of Africa’s MVNO industry by treating branded resellers and on-billers as full MVNO operators.
Africa Analysis defines true MVNOs as businesses that control the customer proposition, participate meaningfully in service and product development and purchase wholesale access from mobile network operators.
The distinction, it said, provides a more accurate picture of the continent’s actual MVNO market and competitive intensity.
The report identified an evolution in the MVNO business model, from price-driven “MVNO 1.0” models to loyalty-focused “MVNO 2.0” propositions and the emerging “MVNO 3.0” model.
Under the latter model, connectivity is increasingly being integrated into broader ecosystems spanning banking, retail, insurance and other digital services.
