Nigeria loses $2bn annually on wheat imports from policy flaws

• Farmers’ displaced due to insecurity, price vulnerabilities
• Millers capacity underutilised
• Stronger CFA than naira encourages smuggling of Nigerian wheat

Dr Oluwasina Gbenga Olabanji is a former Executive Director in charge of Lake Chad Research Institute, Maiduguri, Borno State, from 2012 to 2017. During his tenure, he played a pivotal role in Nigeria’s food security policy. He oversaw the development of many wheat varieties currently cultivated in Nigeria today. He is still playing an active role in the propagation of wheat production in Nigeria and West Africa. He captures the historical and contemporary details of the consequences of interplay of economic policies on wheat production in Nigeria in this interview with our Editorial Consultant, OLUKAYODE OYELEYE.

EXCERPTS follow.

What do you make of Nigeria’s wheat production potential capacity?

NIGERIA has all that it takes to be self-sufficient in wheat production. We have the land. More than 1.5 million hectares of land is suitable for wheat production in the northern part of the country. And, at four to five tonnes per hectare, with government support for research and development, in the next two years, we should be able to release a full variety that can produce five to six tonnes of wheat in Nigeria. And if we attain that, with 1.5 million hectares, guess what the overall production would be.  There are more than 23 flourmills in Nigeria. And we cannot, at this level, meet their demands.

So, what then are the production constraints?

The issue of insecurity in Nigeria affects our wheat production. The wave of insecurity rocking the northern part of Nigeria, particularly in the northeast and northwest, in the form of communal clashes, in particular, Jos in Plateau State, militancy in the northwest, farmers-herdsmen conflicts, also in southern Kaduna and in Plateau, and Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast have further threatened the development of wheat value chain in Nigeria. Most northern farmers who were farming wheat in these areas, particularly the northern part of Borno State, have either been killed or displaced from their native lands and from their farmlands. This has detrimental effects on wheat production in Nigeria and has therefore affected the agricultural contribution of the Gross Domestic Products in the short run. An example is in Borno State, where 20,000 hectares of land is available and suitable for wheat production. For the past 10 years, this hectarage of land has not been available for wheat production; likewise in other parts of the states, like Plateau, Kaduna, Zamfara and Katsina. These are areas that are really threatened by insecurity in the country. This has affected our national wheat production figure and a significant effect on the wheat value chain in Nigeria. 

Even, most of the flour milling industries in the northeast, particularly the Flour Mills of Nigeria (FMN), sited in Maiduguri, is no longer functioning; likewise some of the flour mills such as Crown Flour Mills in Adamawa State. They are no longer functioning because of insecurity. This has made the price of wheat flour to be increased and beyond what the common people can purchase. The wheat produced in Nigeria is being smuggled to neighbouring countries, like Chad, Niger, Cameroon, even Benin Republic through the porous borders. This is as a result of the weakness of our naira against the CFA. In the early years, Nigerian naira was stronger than CFA. So, it was difficult for traders from these neighbouring countries to come and procure wheat in Nigeria. Now that the naira is so weak, most of the traders in Nigeria prefer exporting our wheat through the backdoor to the neighbouring countries to earn more income on the wheat they produce. So, we cannot say the wheat we produce is only for Nigerians.  Whatever we are producing in Nigeria is to satisfy Nigerians and our neighbouring countries.

Where do leakages exist and how can they be closed?

The contribution of the wheat value chain to Nigeria’s economy is not in doubt. A country that spends $2 billion annually importing wheat has a lot to lose in terms of national economy,  job creation and poverty in the nation. Wheat is a strategic commodity for achieving food and nutrition security globally. Its vital role is in the supply of raw materials for the flour milling industry. With promotion of local wheat production in Nigeria, and with 1.5 million farmers cultivating wheat, that is direct employment. Indirect will have an additional one million when we include the processors, aggregators and all the participants in the value chain. So, the wheat value chain has the potential to contribute to the Nigerian agricultural economy, maybe about five to 10 per cent. Secondly, provision of jobs to men, women and youth, particularly when we promote mechanised farming. These youths will be available for agricultural practices. They will key into wheat production once we are able to promote mechanised farming. A youth that will go to the farm, enter a tractor to prepare the land, use planter to plant the seed, use combine harvester to harvest and, at the end of the day, is taking N500,000 profit per hectare within four months.

Who has the institutional mandate for wheat research in the country?

Lake Chad Research Institute (LCRI) has the national mandate for the genetic improvement of wheat in Nigeria. This crop is mainly cultivated under irrigated conditions in northern Nigeria where suitable low temperature, below 25oC, exists, and this happens during the cold harmattan period from November to March. That is why we advise our farmers that, to obtain optimum yield of wheat in the country, farmers must plant their wheat between middle of November to middle of December. That is the planting period of wheat in Nigeria. And the wheat is presently grown in 15 states in the northern part of the country for irrigated wheat. We also have three states for rain-fed wheat, namely Taraba in Mambilla plateau, Cross River in Obudu and Plateau State in Jos.

What can you say about the future prospects for wheat in Nigeria?

Import substitution, food and nutrition security, creation of jobs for youth and women are prospects, because women will have enough food to prepare recipés in their homes. There is local spaghetti now in the northern part of the country which they call “talia.” There are a lot of local recipés that can be made from wheat by women. Then, with adequate support, the milling industry is expected to have adequate raw materials for their mills. Nigeria is a very great country, recognised globally for its ability to develop proven technologies, particularly in the agricultural ecosystem. On wheat, several countries are leveraging the technologies developed in Nigeria. I remember during Dr. Akinwumi  Adesina’s time, there was a request from Rwanda, for Nigeria to send some of their elite wheat varieties for trials in Rwanda. And that was what we did. Lake Chad sent elite wheat materials to Rwanda. Recently, Sierra Leone, which has never grown wheat before, has now beckoned on Nigerian scientists – I led the group last month – to Sierra Leone for capacity building of scientists in Sierra Leone on wheat production and also to demonstrate wheat production in Sierra Leone.  We took three of our elite wheat varieties –Borlaug 100, Norman and Antilla, 100 kg of each – to Sierra Leone for demonstration. We are packaging about 10 of our elite wheat varieties for their screening nurseries.  Within some five years’ time, Sierra Leone could be among the wheat producing countries. And that is what Nigeria can do for Africa as a giant of Africa.

Where do you see the opportunities and threats?

Availability and affordability of quality seed of wheat in the country are also essential. As far as the wheat market is concerned, we have no problem marketing wheat. The flour millers are there. Up till now, we cannot meet 10 per cent of their requirements. So, there is no farmer that will say “I cultivated wheat, (but) I don’t have a market for it.”

The states are taking advantage of wheat production. When we started the wheat value chain, during the Agricultural Transformation Agenda, in 2013, there were just about 12 northern states that were recognised as wheat producing states. But, today, we have 15 northern states that are growing wheat, Niger, Kaduna and Plateau inclusive. Now, we are experimenting with the production of wheat under irrigation in Cross River State, because, in Plateau State where we have rain-fed wheat, being a popular practice, we have also introduced irrigated wheat. So, in Plateau State, farmers can grow wheat throughout the year. During the dry season, they use irrigation. During the wet season, they produce rain-fed wheat. The same thing we are exploring in Cross River State. And we are getting support from their governors. 

What are the cost-benefit considerations?

From the EOP we prepared for the last budget, from one hectare of wheat production, a farmer that obtains three tonnes per hectare will have return on investment of about N400,000 to N500,000 on one hectare within four months, which is very encouraging. There are research works going on to ensure that the average yield of wheat in Nigeria should not be less than seven to eight tonnes per hectare. Let me mention here that, two years ago, when we had national wheat farmers’ field day in Jigawa, a woman farmer got six tonnes per hectare. Averagely, in Jigawa, farmers got four to five tonnes per hectare. It was because of the political will of the governor. Jigawa State is another state that needs to be encouraged with production in Nigeria. In the first phase of the NARS project, the ministry allocated 80,000 hectares for Jigawa State out of over 200,000 hectares we wanted to cultivate. The governor of Jigawa State increased that hectarage to 120,000 hectares and supported the farmers with subsidised inputs. That is what we expected from other northern state governors where wheat is produced. The former Kebbi State governor supported wheat production. The Kano State governor is still supporting wheat production. The present Kaduna State governor is still supporting wheat production.

Could you run us through the history of wheat development in Nigeria?

The wheat mandate was formerly with Institute for Agricultural Research (IAR), Zaria, before LCRI took over the mandate. IAR released about seven varieties before the mandate was transferred to LCRI. Out of those released by the IAR, only three were good for milling and baking. Those were Florence Orere, 8193, GB and Somalica. The work on rain-fed wheat in Nigeria started with IAR. The trial was conducted in Gembu, Mambilla plateau, in Taraba State. When this mandate was transferred to LCRI, as a result of reappraisal of research institutes’ mandates in 1987, LCRI continued with the trials on rain-fed in Mambilla plateau. Now, we have been able to release three improved rain-fed wheat materials for the country. We did not limit rain-fed wheat production to Mambilla. We also exploited the other Nigerian highlands. These are Obudu in Cross River State, Jos in Plateau State. The yield under rain-fed is lower than that of irrigated wheat. 

Under the rain-fed, you have so many pests and diseases, due to the moisture during that period. That means there is a build-up of humidity that makes this crop susceptible to pests and diseases. However, in Nigeria, we emphasise irrigated wheat. But we are not underplaying rain-fed wheat.  The rain-fed wheat will also compensate (for) or complement irrigated wheat just like it is being done in Ethiopia which started its wheat research with rain-fed wheat but because the rain-fed wheat is prone to pests and diseases, some pests and diseases can even ravage the entire crop in a season. Irrigated wheat gave higher yields than rain-fed. Apart from the increase in productivity in which we have made an impact as a wheat expert, we also increased the total number of wheat farmers in Nigeria from 500 to 1.5 million farmers. The total number of farmers that are cultivating wheat in Nigeria now is about 1.5 million.

From that period, 1988, we released the first variety in Lake Chad in 1997, and that variety we released was yielding two tonnes per hectare. Throughout my period in Lake Chad (LCRI), from 1988 to 2017, when I completed my tenure as the ED of LCRI (from 2012 to 2017), LCRI has released 15 irrigated wheat varieties and three rain-fed wheat varieties.  These varieties give productivity of three tonnes per hectare initially.  That is, before the release of these improved varieties, the varieties we were having before, yielded 1.5 tonnes per hectare. Not only that, most of those varieties before these improved varieties were very tall and susceptible to lodging (falling), thereby giving lower yields. Some of them are not also good for milling and baking. 

In terms of business development, where are we moving from research to field and market?

We were able to organise our wheat farmers into an association. As of today, we have the Wheat Farmers Association of Nigeria (WFAN) . In the same manner, when I took over the mandate of the wheat value chain, during the time of Dr. Akinwumi Adesina as the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, I was appointed as the team lead of the wheat value chain in 2013. What I did that time was to first of all look at the available seed in the country that can be made available to the farmers. I found out that there was no seed company that was in the business of wheat seed production. That was in 2013. No seed company then invested in wheat seed production. So, my first call was to Premier Seed, to convince them that there was opportunity in wheat seed production. Professor Ogungbele was the MD of Premier Seed then. In the course of our discussion, he agreed with me that if I can guarantee the marketing of the wheat seed they were going to produce, they would adopt my take. So, by the grace of God, they keyed into our wheat seed production. From there, I went to Value Seed and from there to Seedco. Today, we have more than 15 seed companies that are now producing wheat seed for the country.

Another impact of my leadership in the wheat value chain is from the introduction of the innovation platform (IP), which is what the AfDB introduced during our SARD-SC wheat project. It was practised in Sudan, Nigeria and also in Ethiopia during the SARD-SC project on wheat. This IP is where all the stakeholders in the wheat value chain gather together monthly to discuss the challenges in the wheat value chain. Researchers were represented. Extension agents, the millers, the farmers, all the stakeholders gathered to exchange knowledge on challenges of wheat production in Nigeria and also to proffer solutions. To discuss the varieties, I have indicated that we have 15 irrigated wheat varieties that have been released by the LCRI, and three rain-fed varieties. How did we come about them? LCRI collaborates with CIMMYT in Mexico, ICARDA in Morocco. 

What’s the state of on-going research and development programmes?

In the course of this collaboration, we usually obtained germplasm materials from these two international research centres. When we get these germplasm materials, we screen them in our nursery. There are what we call nursery trials. We screen these materials that could come in the volume of about 1,000 lines, sometimes 2,000 lines. So, we plant them out in rows for screening in the nursery. After the nursery trials, we now select good seed materials that can be advanced to preliminary yield trials. In this, we also have a volume of about 100 to 200 lines for evaluation. We now advance elite materials from there to our multi-locational variety trials that are conducted in all the states that have been identified as wheat growing states. Now, we have 15 states that are cultivating irrigated wheat. We have conducted multi-locational trials in these states to see varieties that are adaptable to those locations. 

From our experience, there are some varieties that do well in all the states while some are peculiar to some particular states. By the end of our trials, those materials that have done very well in the locations now move to on-farm adaptive or farmer-participated trials. We only carry two elite materials with ‘farmers’ local,’ to make three. Farmers’ locality doesn’t mean it is locally produced wheat. It could be earlier varieties that have been released and the farmers have adopted. We use those ones as checks while they compete with our two elite materials that we are proposing for release to farmers. This trial will be conducted for at least two years. For the release of any wheat variety in this country, we must have conducted trials for a minimum of four to five years. No variety of wheat can be released without the milling quality of the material for release. These releases are done in Ibadan in the national release committee. 

How do we create the impetus for local wheat production?

On the issue of how farmers are encouraged to grow wheat, yes, right from the beginning, wheat is a strategic commodity for achieving food and nutrition security globally. Most of our farmers do not see the benefits of growing wheat. They prefer growing rice, maize, cassava, sorghum, millet and some other cereal crops. But with the wheat programme that was initiated in 1987 when there was a ban on importation of wheat in this country by President Ibrahim Babangida who saw the need for Nigeria to grow its own wheat, banned the importation of wheat in 1987 and made it mandatory for Nigeria to produce its own wheat. We called it “accelerated wheat programme.” This programme came with so many incentives to farmers and states. Farmers were given free inputs; water pumps and hoses, pesticides, seeds, fertilisers and other agrochemicals free of charge. So, many farmers went into wheat production. But before the ban on wheat importation into the country in 1987, our national wheat production then was 50,000 metric tonnes as a country. The productivity was 0,5 to 0.8 tonnes per hectare. As a result of these incentives to farmers by the Nigerian government then, our national production rose 400,000 to 450,000 metric tonnes within three years and productivity increased to two tonnes per hectare. 

But as a result of policy somersault, the same government that banned the importation of wheat into this country, promoting local wheat production, lifted this ban after three years. By doing so, there was no market for wheat produced by our farmers. Most of our farmers went into liquidation. No farmer was interested in growing wheat again. 

What are the policy safeguards, safety nets and sustainable supports needed?

Policy is also very critical for wheat self-sufficiency in Nigeria. The Nigerian government must develop a very strong political will for food and nutrition security in the country.  I don’t think the policy-somersault is limited to the wheat value chain. I think it is across the agricultural ecosystem. And, for us to get it right, I will plead with the Nigerian government to, please, be consistent in their policies. These policies that give rise to interventions are durable, workable and can be successful. But, a government will come, promote wheat locally by banning the importation. The same government came up after three years and lifted the ban. That is one aspect. Secondly, there was an agricultural transformation agenda that was started by a government. Another government came and derailed the process, replaced it with another policy. That policy was not sustainable. Now, we transitioned to CBN anchor borrowers’ programme, which was somehow partially successful, at least, it created awareness among farmers that they can easily access credit from the bank. But the problem or challenge with that programme was the poor loan recovery from the farmers. That is for another day. Farmers got a subsidy from that intervention. They were happy. But, during the recovery process, there was no strong mechanism for loan recovery. I think that was a challenge.

The government must promote private sector participation in the wheat value chain. We want more investors in the wheat value chain. So, what I am trying to suggest in essence is that Nigeria must produce more wheat that can satisfy the demand of Nigerians and neighbouring countries. We need government intervention in the pricing. We need a guaranteed minimum price for wheat. And also, Nigeria must protect the borders, with surveillance on the borders with our neighbouring countries, so as to minimise the smuggling of wheat. This can only be achieved through promotion of mechanised farming, access to credit by farmers, subsidy on inputs for farmers in the next two to three years for these farmers to stabilise and make enough money to stand on their own and see agriculture as a business.

What do you see as the weaknesses and efforts to overcome them?

Creating an enabling environment is essential for farmers to thrive and produce adequate wheat for the nation. A major challenge is inadequate development land available for irrigation. We have dilapidated and poor maintenance of both the public and private irrigation infrastructure.

Lack of access or inadequate access to finance by our farmers should receive priority attention. Recently, the government has restored and reinvigorated the Bank of Agriculture (BOA), restoring its glory. BOA is now making credit available to our farmers. Recently, they have told aggregators and farmers to come to BOA for credit, though with some conditions. But this is in the right direction. Another challenge is this vulnerability of prices of crop commodities, particularly wheat. The price of locally produced wheat two years ago per 100 kg bag rose to N180,000. Today, that same 100 kg bag of wheat is sold between N50,000 and N60,000. That is N500,000 to N600,000 per tonne, while the imported wheat, as at now, is about N350,000 per tonne, which means the imported wheat is lower than the locally produced wheat in Nigeria. This, I believe, is as a result of low productivity and low production of wheat in Nigeria. Other countries like China, the largest producer of wheat globally, produce between 130 and 145 million metric tonnes in a year. Compare this to Nigeria, of 450 to a maximum of 650 tonnes. We need to do something about that.

Another challenge was limited private sector participation in the seed sector. Seed is the most important input in crop production. Its potential is determined by genetic makeup. If there is no quality seed for you to grow, even if you apply all the fertilisers of this world, you may not get the potential yield. So, seed is key. And we have limited private sector participation in this sector. We want to plead with the government to encourage seed companies, motivate them. Give them some incentives, particularly for wheat seed production because, as at today, we don’t have enough quality seed, even to cultivate one million hectares of wheat. Let me mention here that there was a time we proposed to cultivate 250,000 hectares during this NARS project. That was in 2022 to 2023.

Our target was to cultivate 250,000 hectares of wheat. When we looked around, we could not access enough seed to cultivate 250,000 hectares. Nigeria had to import wheat seed from Mexico to complement what we had locally before we could do that. Thank God, in 2023 to 2024, there was no importation of wheat seed into Nigeria. We relied on locally produced wheat seed by these 20 seed companies that produced the wheat seed. They need to be encouraged for us to have enough seed available and affordable to our farmers. 

Another challenge is harvest losses. Our farmers are still using sickles to harvest their wheat. After cutting the stalk, they put it inside threshers. That is if they are the medium scale farmers that have threshers. They use the threshers to thresh. They invite women or our youth to winnow. With this method, we cannot talk of wheat self-sufficiency. We need to promote mechanisation. The government must promote the use of tractors for land preparation, the use of planters for precision. For harvesting, you need combine harvesters. Under the new agenda of the government, more than 2,000 tractors have been procured to assist farmers in land preparation. Some seed planters were procured for smart agriculture. Some combine harvesters have also been procured. But that is not to say we are there. The government must procure more tractors, more seed planters and combine harvesters. We need more if Nigeria is to be self-sufficient in most of these commodities in food security. We must promote farm mechanisation. 

What do you have to say about political interference in disbursement of funds?

Interference in disbursement of funds, particularly for research and development is happening. Research institutes, annually do make budget presentation to the national assembly. But experience has shown that even after approval of these budgets, no budget over the years has gone beyond 50 to 60 per cent budget implementation scores. That is to show that research institutes that develop technologies, initiatives and innovations for improvement of wheat and other crop commodities in the country were not well-funded. And it is important that the national assembly members look into the funding of research institutes so that more technologies for the improvement of the agricultural ecosystem can be improved upon.