A fragile growth streak snapped in April as business conditions weakened across key sectors, pushing the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) below the expansion threshold for the first time in over a year, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed.
The composite PMI fell to 49.4 in April 2026, dropping below the 50-point benchmark that separates expansion from contraction and ending a 16-month run of sustained growth.
The headline Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.4, dipping below the 50-point benchmark that separates expansion from contraction, and ending a 16-month streak of sustained growth.
The contraction was primarily driven by weakening demand conditions and a pullback in business activity. Key sub-indices pointed to declining momentum: output fell to 49.7, new orders dropped to 48.4, while employment slipped to 49.6.
Inventory levels also declined, with the stock of raw materials index at 48.7, indicating reduced purchasing activity by businesses. However, supplier delivery times improved slightly, rising to 50.9, a rare positive signal amid the broader slowdown.
Of the 36 subsectors surveyed, 19 recorded contraction, one remained flat, and 16 expanded. The primary metals subsector posted the heaviest decline, while forestry emerged as the fastest-growing segment during the month.
Sectoral data revealed that the downturn was concentrated in industry and services, both of which fell into contraction territory.
The industrial PMI stood at 49.5, reflecting marginal contraction. While output remained just above the growth line at 50.2, new orders and employment weakened to 49.5 and 48.7, respectively. Firms also cut back significantly on input purchases, with raw material inventories dropping to 46.8. Eight of the 17 industrial subsectors contracted, reversing earlier gains.
The services sector saw a deeper pullback, with PMI falling to 48.8; its first contraction in 14 months. Business activity, new orders, employment, and inventories all declined, highlighting a broad deterioration in demand. Transportation and warehousing led the downturn, while educational services provided a modest offset with continued growth.
In contrast, agriculture remained a relative bright spot, with PMI at 50.2, extending its expansion streak to 21 consecutive months. Growth was supported by general farming activity and stronger employment levels.
However, underlying pressures are beginning to surface. New orders and raw material inventories weakened, indicating that the sector may not be immune to broader economic headwinds in the coming months.
The report linked the slowdown in business conditions to external shocks, including heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted supply chains and dampened business confidence globally.
At the same time, inflationary pressures intensified. Both input and output price indices rose by 3.2 points in April, indicating that rising production costs are increasingly being passed on to consumers. Notably, output prices rose faster than input costs in industry and agriculture, suggesting firms are adjusting pricing strategies to protect margins.
