Onome Amuge
Entering 2026, Nigeria’s economy finds itself at a critical juncture. Recent policy reforms have begun to steer the nation from crisis toward a cautiously optimistic recovery. Olufemi Awoyemi, founder and chairman of Proshare, recently dwelled on this at the 2025 Market Scenarios, Economic Outlook, and Evolving Matters Annual Country Meet, where he outlined the structural shifts, emerging opportunities, and lingering risks shaping the country’s economic trajectory.
Awoyemi, in his presentation, noted that Nigeria’s economic rebound marks a departure from previous recoveries reliant on external fiscal support. This is as post-2023/2024 reforms, including fuel subsidy removal, FX unification, and trade and banking interventions—have enabled the country to stabilize without a global fiscal bailout. Forecasts from major financial institutions indicate the nation’s GDP growth could reach 3.9–4.2 per cent by the end of 2025, supported by non-oil sectors, moderate inflation, and a more stable foreign exchange market.
“The Tinubu administration has moved the economy from a ‘risk watch’ to a ‘recovery watch’,” Awoyemi noted, pointing to Nigeria’s removal from the FATF grey list and improved global ratings as key milestones. Yet, the recovery remains fragile, dependent on structural reforms, political continuity, and external market conditions.
According to the presentation, seen by Business a.m., Nigeria’s corporate landscape has mirrored broader economic trends. The 50 largest firms on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) now command a combined market value of N91.71 trillion ($63.1bn), up from $11.16 billion a decade ago. While unlisted giants such as Dangote Refineries, Olam, Glo, Flutterwave, and Andela contribute significant value, listed corporates, including MTN Nigeria, Airtel Africa, and BUA Foods, have benefited from stabilizing inflation, improved FX liquidity, and higher energy availability, returning to profitability after challenging 2023–2024 conditions.
Meanwhile, analysts have identified portfolio management and product value, as two mechanisms driving corporate value creation. As global investors reassess emerging markets, Nigerian corporates are leveraging these levers to enhance competitiveness, optimise operations, and expand exports.
Awoyemi’s presentation showed that the agricultural sector, particularly Olam Agri, illustrates both opportunity and vulnerability in 2026. With GDP growth projected at 3.5–4.0 per cent, moderated inflation of 13–16 per cent, and FX stability, agribusiness operators are positioned to expand through backward integration, value addition, and export-oriented strategies.
Key trends include:
- Digital agriculture and farmer fintech: Enhancing traceability, market access, and financial services for over 100,000 smallholder farmers.
- Sustainable protein transition: Leveraging soybean and feed operations to capture new market segments.
- Circular bio-economy initiatives: Converting by-products into value-added products like biomass fuel and fertilizers.
The presentation noted that Olam Agri’s scenario analysis outlines three potential market conditions including a base “Steady Progress” scenario with 10 per cent revenue growth, an “Agricultural Acceleration” scenario with up to 20% revenue gains, and a “Challenging Environment” scenario where climate shocks, currency volatility, and social unrest could constrain earnings.
Despite reform-driven gains, Nigeria is seen to face non-trivial risks. Pre-election politics, communal conflicts, fiscal imbalances, and insecurity are feared to undermine recovery. The National Bureau of Statistics reports that between May 2023 and April 2024, 2.2 million people were kidnapped, highlighting a security challenge that dwarfs comparable international crises.
Political continuity is considered crucial as a change in administration or presidential incapacity could slow reform momentum. Analysts caution that global shocks, ranging from pandemics to commodity price collapses, remain latent threats to the fragile recovery trajectory.
Awoyemi also pointed out that monetary policy continues to anchor inflation expectations, while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal authorities aim to consolidate the budget, reduce public debt, and improve revenue efficiency. FX market stability, improved harvest yields, and energy sector reforms are also highlighted to underpin macroeconomic stabilisation, while a broad portfolio of policy interventions, spanning student loans, trade facilitation, investment reforms, and digital payment systems, are seen to enhance structural resilience.
Outlook for 2026
According to the presentation, Nigeria’s 2026 economy will be shaped by moderate GDP growth, stabilising inflation, and evolving FX dynamics. Non-oil sectors, particularly agriculture, technology, and resilient infrastructure, are expected to drive competitiveness. This is as analysts project GDP growth of 3.5–4.0 per cent and inflation of 13–16 per cent, though downside risks remain significant.
The Proshare founder noted that Nigeria is navigating a “tale of two economies”, being that the formal statistical economy shows recovery, while the street economy struggles under persistent volatility, high food costs, and insecurity. Bridging this gap, he noted, will require careful policy calibration, infrastructure investment, and robust institutional governance.
