PREDILECTION FOR OLD PEOPLE in power in Nigeria is not largely a choice. It was an imposition that the countrymen and women have come to accept, albeit grudgingly. While the interest groups that tend to favour this anomaly have their own well-defined end in mind, such an end, as we can see from examples from elsewhere, is anything but desirable. Successful nations benchmark their progress with other successful nations, striving to achieve or even surpass rival nations in comparison. Some even go as far as embarking on espionage to gather or steal ideas from other nations to use in making their own better.
Since Nigeria’s return to civilian rule a quarter of a century ago, nearly half of the years have been spent under old or sick leaders at the national levels. Umaru Yar’Adua was handpicked by an outgoing President Olusegun Obasanjo and imposed on Nigeria, despite his obvious health challenges. His rule was not just truncated, but also plunged Nigeria into a period of political impasse and economic limbo as he battled with terminal health challenges as power vacuum persisted while some vested interests held the whole country to ransom.
Another imposition was when a tired and retired military man was persuaded to consider running once more for the position of president. Muhammadu Buhari had given up his presidential ambition until a certain Bola Ahmed Tinubu packaged him on his own party platform and presented him as the best for Nigeria in the circumstance. With a lot of propaganda and violent rhetorics, Buhari became a candidate to beat and ultimately the president for eight straight years.
Under Buhari’s regime, Nigeria began to show every sign of a failed state. The economy tanked, naira’s value underwent a free fall, insecurity became widespread and Nigeria became unattractive to foreign investors even as more and more existing industries were closing down and multinationals were leaving. During his eight years in office, Buhari spent over 225 days abroad on medical trips outside Nigeria in foreign hospital stays. At one point in time, he spent 100 hundred days at a stretch. To make matters worse, delegating powers to a deputy was not considered necessary, which means the wheels of government temporarily ceased to turn each time Buhari was on sick leave; and that happened too often. And each time, he had to seek medical care abroad, in Europe.
Notwithstanding all these, Buhari was returned to office for a second term of four years during which insecurity nationwide took a turn for the worse. We were told that Buhari hardly stayed in his office beyond 5 pm each day and many crucial executive council meetings that were supposed to be chaired by him were not delegated or, at best, were held without authority expressly delegated to his deputy. The fact that Nigeria, through the office of the president, was subsidising Buhari’s health cost became apparent as the man died less than two years after leaving office as he no longer had direct access to state resources or exceptional attention as the nation’s top office holder.
Although the ruling party showed every conceivable sign of failure, it again propped up another old and sick man as Buhari’s successor. It did not take long to manifest as the man was often followed closely behind by some men who were apparently deployed to ensure that the man was prevented from falling during the campaign rallies. At some point, he was spotted carrying a medical device on his person suggesting he was under continuous medication then. In addition to the fact that these tell-tale signs were ignored among many people, the controversies linked to his emergence as president raised questions of moral legitimacy even when court pronounced him winner of the election.
Ahmed Tinubu has simply continued on the same trajectory of his predecessor in terms of health challenges and frequent visits to Europe for foreign medical intervention. His trips are now being packaged as working visit, state visit, leave, while the destination is often made fuzzy to hide the exact location he has gone for medical treatment, although it has become common knowledge that France is his choice medical tourism destination.
Individuals, young or old, can fall while walking for a variety of reasons. It happens almost everywhere, to the poor, the rich, the educated, the illiterate, to men and women. What made Tinubu’s recent stumble in Ankara, Turkiye, particularly significant is not that it happened in the public in a foreign land. It is peculiar because it obliterated key messages and whatever positive points were intended to be scored on the trip. Tinubu, like Buhari, has become a frequent flyer, a globetrotter and a restless traveller. It is obvious that less attention is being paid to the fragility of his health vis-a-vis his frequent long distance travel, albeit by air.
The impact of jetlag on an old person that has imposed upon himself the task of leading a national government cannot be the same as on a much younger person occupying the same office. A lot of defenders of the government, official spokespersons, party men and public commentators miss this important point. The larger picture of suitability for running the office of a president is either ignored or explained away, mostly by those who directly suffer neglect or deprivation under the leadership of a great-grandfather who should stay at home, offering words of advice to younger people in public office.
The cost is enormous, in temporal and spatial terms. Amenability of very old people to new ideas is usually far less compared to younger people. The agility of old people is often weaker than younger people. The ability to withstand physical stress or to recover from previous stress is always less in older people. The elastic limits of older people to demanding tasks are by far less, the older they get. Currently, Tinubu is stretching himself beyond the limit his physical frame can carry. A few days after returning from a trip that took him nearly a month outside Africa, he hopped on a plane straight to Ankara. Without doubt, he underestimates the cost while overestimating his strength and resilience.
While his prolonged, inexplicable absence is costing Nigeria dearly, his fall, relayed live on global television, is a public relations disaster, whichever way local sympathisers may choose to spin it. Foreign investors, foreign diplomats, global risk analysts, rating firms, insurance experts and intellectuals took note. For those who try to dismiss the import, using Joe Biden’s several falls as a shield, let them look at one singular indicator of dispassionate public’s handling of such incidents.
While politicians on the left were dismissing Joe Biden’s declining mental acuity, the professionals were looking at the impact on the nation. After much window dressing and false packaging, top Democrats decided Biden should give way for someone else much younger. At the time that decision to replace him with another presidential candidate was taken, the market was not neutral. It reacted.
Ellis Phifer, market analyst, had this to say: “This could be taken negatively in terms of higher deficits. In my opinion, we have two fiscally irresponsible parties.” Another analyst, Quincy Krosby, a chief global strategist, said “this is expected. It was really an issue of not if but when, and now the stage is who will it be?”
If who occupies the position of a president does not matter to entrepreneurs, business executives and analysts, opinions about who emerges as the leader of a country would rather be unnecessary and inconsequential. Perception shapes people’s response to a government. Public perception ignored by people running the affairs of a country could be so ignored or even dismissed at any point in time. However, that does not diminish or erase the consequences of actions or inactions that shape such a perception. Investments drive job creation and fuel income generation. Deindustrialisation and decline in job-creating enterprises is shaping Nigeria’s economy rather negatively and significantly. Many people are taking pragmatic steps to overcome the situation. Sadly, political debates are silent on key issues that affect the lives and livelihoods of most people.
Demography and associated problems are avoided in open discussions. The unemployment rate is up in the air. Emigration and underlying causes are hardly put in perspectives. Yet, younger and upwardly mobile Nigerians are left to make hard choices, one of which involves desperate journeys to live outside Nigeria. Year in, year out, hundreds of thousands of young graduates are churned out from Nigeria’s ever-increasing numbers of higher institutions of learning, with limited prospects of ever securing any jobs.
Hundreds of thousands of graduates since the return of Nigeria to civilian rule in 1999 have either never got any paid employment at all or have never earned a living wage. Some in that category are now in their fifties, with little or no prospect of ever getting any fulfilling employment. How then will their families fare?
The driving force for desperation to travel outside Nigeria in search of better opportunities to live more fulfilling lives is therefore from the government’s ineptitude, ineffectiveness, incompetence, corruption and lack of responsive and futuristic policies, coupled with rising waves of insecurity. A country ruled by geriatrics is very unlikely to prioritise issues affecting a younger generation. With a typical surge in unemployed youthful population, many of which are prone to criminality, reality is that many will take to crime.
The diversionary tactics involving emphasis on tribalism, regionalism and religious affiliations take away attention from the real problems Nigerians face daily, which revolve around livelihoods. As long as Nigerians allow themselves to be continually manipulated along those sentimental lines that don’t add any real values to their standard of living, the future of a better Nigeria remains a mirage. People may continue to defend any old man in power while they themselves continue to live in poverty and economic deprivation. It is all a matter of choice.
Dr. Olukayode Oyeleye, Business a.m.’s Editorial Advisor, who graduated in veterinary medicine from the University of Ibadan, Nigeria, before establishing himself in science and public policy journalism and communication, also has a postgraduate diploma in public administration, and is a former special adviser to two former Nigerian ministers of agriculture. He specialises in development and policy issues in the areas of food, trade and competition, security, governance, environment and innovation, politics and emerging economies.
