The United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+, marking a significant rupture in the global oil order and intensifying uncertainty in already volatile energy markets.
The decision, which takes effect on Friday, comes amid a deepening global energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel Iran war, which has disrupted supply chains and driven oil prices sharply higher.
In a statement, the UAE said the move reflects “the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile.”
“During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all. However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates,” the statement said.
The UAE’s exit after nearly six decades of membership is widely seen as a major blow to OPEC’s cohesion, potentially weakening the group’s ability to coordinate production and stabilise prices.
The development comes as Gulf producers face mounting challenges in exporting crude through the Strait of Hormuz, where escalating security threats have constrained flows of oil and liquefied natural gas that account for roughly a fifth of global supply.
Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision followed a comprehensive review of the country’s long-term energy strategy.
“This is a policy decision. It has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production,” he said, noting that the UAE did not consult other OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, before making the move.
Analysts say the withdrawal underscores shifting dynamics within the global oil market, where rising US production and internal rivalries have eroded OPEC’s traditional influence.
Energy consultancy Rystad Energy described the move as a significant turning point.
“Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group’s hands,” said Jorge Leon.
“With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table,” he added.
Separately, Saul Kavonic warned that the exit could signal deeper fragmentation within the alliance, describing it as “the beginning of the end” for OPEC.
“With the UAE leaving, Opec loses about 15% of its capacity and one of its most compliant members,” he said.
The UAE’s decision reflects long-standing tensions within OPEC over production quotas and strategic direction. Analysts say the country has grown increasingly frustrated with limits on output, particularly after investing heavily in expanding its production capacity.
Carole Nakhle noted that the move “has been a long time in the making.”
“Abu Dhabi has pursued ambitious production capacity growth, yet often felt constrained by group quotas, especially amid uneven compliance by some members,” she said.
The exit also highlights intensifying competition with Saudi Arabia across economic and geopolitical fronts, including influence in regional trade routes and energy markets.
Global fallout and outlook
The timing of the withdrawal adds pressure to an already strained global energy system. The World Bank has warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict has caused the largest oil supply shock on record, with energy prices projected to rise by about 25 per cent this year.
“The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest,” said Indermit Gill.
While the immediate impact on supply may be muted due to ongoing disruptions, analysts say the UAE’s newfound flexibility could lead to higher output over time.
David Oxley said the implications could extend beyond the UAE if other producers follow suit or ramp up production independently.
Founded in 1960, OPEC has long served as a coordinating body for oil-exporting nations. The UAE, which joined in 1967, will leave behind a reduced membership base and an alliance facing mounting questions over its future relevance.
