Global cocoa markets may be heading toward another period of extreme volatility, with prices potentially climbing back above the $10,000-per-tonne threshold that shook the confectionery industry in 2024, as worsening climate conditions, disease outbreaks and years of underinvestment threaten the future of production across West Africa.
The warning comes from the Cocoa and Coffee Farmers Alliance Association of Africa (COCEFAAA), which says the world’s cocoa supply chain remains dangerously exposed to structural weaknesses in the region responsible for producing the bulk of the commodity consumed globally.
The farmers’ alliance argues that recent price declines have created a false sense of stability in international markets despite mounting evidence that production challenges across major cocoa-growing countries are becoming more severe rather than easing.
According to the organisation, the cocoa industry is facing a convergence of risks that could reduce output over the coming seasons, tighten global supplies and reignite price spikes that reverberate through chocolate manufacturing, food inflation and commodity markets worldwide.
The global cocoa market’s dependence on West Africa leaves it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the region. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana together produce around 60 percent of the world’s cocoa, while Nigeria and Cameroon contribute significantly to international supply, amplifying the market impact of any production shortfalls.
COCEFAAA says production losses experienced in recent years reveal that the region’s cocoa economy has entered a period of heightened vulnerability.
The alliance estimates that Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon collectively lost up to 40 percent of their harvests during the 2023 and 2024 production seasons. Those losses were attributed to erratic rainfall patterns, prolonged dry conditions, disease outbreaks and broader climate-related disruptions that have increasingly affected agricultural productivity across the region.
The impact on global markets was immediate. Cocoa prices rose to historic highs in 2024 as traders scrambled to secure supplies amid growing concerns about shrinking inventories. Prices on the London market reached a record $11,530 per tonne in June 2024, marking one of the most dramatic commodity rallies in recent history.
Although prices later retreated following a recovery in production and market adjustments, industry observers note that current levels remain significantly above long-term historical averages.
For farmers and analysts alike, the temporary easing of prices has done little to resolve the deeper structural issues affecting production.
COCEFAAA argues that global cocoa markets remain fundamentally undersupplied and vulnerable to future disruptions.
“The factors that drove the previous crisis have not disappeared,” the organisation said in a statement signed by Adeola Adegoke, its global President.
Instead, many of those challenges have intensified.
One of the most pressing concerns is the growing impact of climate change on cocoa-growing regions.
Scientists have repeatedly warned that rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increasing weather variability could significantly affect cocoa cultivation across tropical regions.
For cocoa farmers, these warnings are no longer theoretical. Across West Africa, growers have reported increasingly unpredictable weather cycles, delayed rains, longer dry seasons and heat stress affecting both yields and bean quality.
Such disruptions have made farm planning more difficult while increasing production risks for millions of smallholder farmers who depend on cocoa as their primary source of income.
The possibility of another El Niño weather event has heightened concerns further.
COCEFAAA projects that global cocoa production could decline by 10 percent during the 2025/26 season due to anticipated climate-related disruptions linked to El Niño conditions.
The alliance cautions that if weather patterns intensify into what meteorologists describe as a “Super El Niño,” the consequences for cocoa-producing regions could be severe.
A major production decline at a time of steady global demand would likely place renewed upward pressure on prices and potentially trigger another supply crisis.
Beyond climate concerns, disease outbreaks continue to undermine productivity across many cocoa-growing areas.
The cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) remains one of the most destructive threats facing cocoa plantations in West Africa.
The disease attacks cocoa trees, reducing yields and eventually killing infected plants.
Farmers in several producing countries have struggled to contain its spread despite efforts by governments and research institutions to implement control measures.
Large sections of cocoa farms in parts of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire have already been affected, forcing farmers to remove infected trees and replant new seedlings.
The process is costly, labour-intensive and often requires several years before newly planted trees become commercially productive.
As a result, disease outbreaks can create prolonged production deficits that affect both local economies and international markets.
Industry experts note that the challenge is compounded by the age profile of many cocoa farms across the region.
A substantial proportion of cocoa trees in West Africa are ageing and less productive than younger plantations.
Many farmers lack the financial resources required to rehabilitate farms, replace old trees or invest in improved planting materials.
Without large-scale farm renewal programmes, yields are expected to remain under pressure even in favourable weather conditions.
The situation is raising further concerns about the sustainability of global cocoa supply chains.
For decades, multinational chocolate manufacturers have relied heavily on smallholder farmers to meet growing consumer demand.
However, producer groups argue that farmers have not received adequate financial returns to sustain investment in their farms.
COCEFAAA points to persistent concerns over farmer incomes, transparency in premium payments and the effectiveness of sustainability initiatives promoted by global corporations.
According to the alliance, many cocoa-producing households continue to earn incomes below living-income benchmarks despite years of industry commitments aimed at improving livelihoods.
The organisation referenced findings from the Coffee Barometer 2026 and Cocoa Barometer 2026 reports, which highlight continuing concerns around farmer compensation and accountability within commodity supply chains.
The reports suggest that while sustainability programmes have expanded, many producers remain trapped in cycles of poverty that limit their ability to invest in productivity-enhancing measures.
This reality is becoming increasingly significant as competition for agricultural labour intensifies.
Across many cocoa-growing communities, younger generations are abandoning farming in favour of urban employment opportunities.
The trend reflects demographic and economic changes occurring throughout Africa.
Many young people view cocoa farming as financially unattractive compared with opportunities in trade, technology, transportation and other sectors.
The resulting labour shortages are creating additional pressures on production.
As experienced farmers age without successors willing to continue cultivating cocoa, concerns are growing about the long-term future of the industry.
The mounting challenges facing cocoa production are forcing investors and manufacturers to reassess the future of supply security. At the same time, a growing number of multinational food companies are backing laboratory-grown and cell-cultured cocoa technologies as a potential hedge against climate-related disruptions. Advocates argue that alternative production methods could offer new supply channels while reducing pressure on agricultural land.
However, farmer organisations view the trend with increasing scepticism.
COCEFAAA argues that significant investments in synthetic cocoa technologies risk diverting attention and resources away from the farmers who currently produce the world’s cocoa.
The alliance fears that technology-driven solutions could become substitutes for meaningful reforms aimed at improving farmer welfare and agricultural resilience.
Adegoke questioned industry priorities, arguing that companies willing to commit substantial funding to laboratory-based alternatives should also be prepared to invest in farm rehabilitation, disease-resistant planting materials and living-income initiatives.
“We are not opposed to innovation. We are opposed to innovation that is used as a substitute for justice,” he said.
According to him, some corporate strategies increasingly resemble an “exit strategy” from traditional farming communities rather than a genuine sustainability agenda.
The comments reflect growing tensions between technology-driven food innovation and traditional agricultural production systems.
While alternative production methods may eventually play a role in global food supply chains, many experts argue that they remain years away from replacing conventional cocoa production at meaningful commercial scale.
In the meantime, global demand for cocoa and chocolate continues to expand, particularly in emerging consumer markets across Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
That demand growth means the world will remain heavily dependent on West African farmers for the foreseeable future.
For Nigeria, the developments present both opportunities and challenges.
As one of Africa’s leading cocoa producers, Nigeria stands to benefit from periods of elevated international prices.
Higher prices can improve export earnings, strengthen foreign exchange inflows and increase farm incomes when transmission mechanisms function effectively.
However, the same climate and disease-related threats affecting neighbouring countries also pose risks to Nigeria’s cocoa sector.
Analysts argue that policy interventions aimed at supporting smallholder farmers could help position Nigeria to capture a larger share of future global cocoa demand.
Such interventions may include access to improved seedlings, affordable financing, irrigation support, mechanisation services and stronger market linkages.
Failure to address these issues could leave producers vulnerable to the same structural challenges already affecting other major cocoa-producing countries.
In response to the growing challenges, COCEFAAA has announced plans to convene the African Cocoa and Coffee Fiesta on October 7 and 8, 2026, in Lagos.
The event, which will be organised in collaboration with Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria, aims to bring together governments, cooperatives, financiers, researchers, development organisations and private-sector stakeholders.
Discussions are expected to focus on sustainable value-chain development, climate adaptation strategies, farmer welfare, productivity enhancement and investment opportunities across Africa’s cocoa and coffee industries.
The alliance believes that stronger collaboration among stakeholders will be essential to addressing the structural challenges threatening the future of both sectors.
