Global food prices climbed five per cent in the two months following the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz after conflict erupted in the Middle East in late February 2026, according to a new World Bank analysis, raising fresh concerns over food security and inflation across vulnerable economies.
The increase pushed global food prices to their highest level since January 2024, with oils and meals recording the sharpest gains as higher energy prices and stronger biofuel demand rippled through agricultural markets.
The World Bank said oils and meals surged 10 per cent during the period, driven largely by rising crude oil prices and expanded biofuel blending mandates in major economies such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States.
Grain prices rose a comparatively modest three per cent, supported by what the bank described as “ample global supplies,” although wheat and maize still posted quarterly gains of nine per cent and four per cent respectively amid drought concerns and elevated production costs.
Despite the latest increase, the World Bank said the current shock remains less severe than the disruption triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when food prices jumped 15 per cent within a similar two-month period.
“Even so, the food price response has been far more contained than in early 2022,” the bank stated, citing strong grain and oilseed inventories as well as the fact that Northern Hemisphere farmers had largely secured fertiliser supplies before the conflict escalated.
The report noted that the present crisis is affecting food markets mainly through higher energy and transportation costs rather than direct disruptions to major agricultural export routes.
Soybean oil emerged as one of the most affected commodities, rising 16 per cent in the first quarter and 25 per cent year-on-year amid robust renewable diesel demand and new US biofuel targets.
Palm oil and soybean prices also strengthened on increased biodiesel demand and renewed Chinese purchases, although the World Bank said abundant edible oil supplies helped prevent sharper price spikes.
The impact has been particularly acute in import-dependent economies across the Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, where food inflation accelerated after shipping disruptions intensified around the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the report, Gulf economies that previously maintained relatively stable food prices experienced rapid inflationary pressure after critical supply routes were affected.
Iran remains among the most vulnerable countries, with food inflation already running at 98 per cent in February 2026 before the latest escalation in regional tensions.
Beyond the Middle East, food inflation has also accelerated across Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia, reflecting patterns similar to those observed after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected only modest increases in global food commodity prices under its baseline scenario, forecasting grains to rise two per cent in 2026, oils and meals four per cent, and the overall food price index approximately 2.5 per cent.
However, the institution warned that risks remain “tilted firmly to the upside,” particularly if disruptions to energy and shipping routes persist beyond mid-year or if oil prices remain elevated.
The UN World Food Programme estimates that as many as 45 million additional people could face acute hunger in 2026 should supply disruptions continue, with more than half concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region.
