As telecom operators prepare for the arrival of sixth-generation (6G) mobile technology, a new report by Juniper Research warns that the industry’s biggest challenge may not be deploying faster networks but ensuring they generate sustainable returns on investment.
The warning carries particular significance for markets such as Nigeria, where commercial 5G services launched in 2022 but adoption remains relatively modest compared with more advanced economies. While operators continue investing in network expansion, questions remain about how quickly those investments can translate into meaningful revenue growth.
In its latest whitepaper, “Learning from 5G – How MNOs Can Make 6G a Success,” Juniper Research argues that mobile network operators (MNOs) must avoid repeating the commercial shortcomings that accompanied the global rollout of fifth-generation networks.
According to the report, although 5G delivered major improvements in speed, capacity and network performance, many operators struggled to achieve the revenue growth needed to justify the billions of dollars spent on spectrum acquisition, infrastructure deployment and network upgrades.
The research firm forecasts that the first commercial 6G connections will emerge in 2029, with global 6G subscriptions reaching approximately 4.1 million by the end of that year. The United States and South Korea are expected to lead initial deployments before wider adoption expands globally from 2030 onwards.
However, Juniper argues that the success of 6G will ultimately depend less on headline-grabbing speeds and more on whether operators can develop sustainable business models around the technology.
Beyond faster internet
Unlike previous generations of mobile technology, which largely focused on improving speed, coverage and network capacity, 6G is expected to be shaped by broader technological and economic trends.
The next generation of wireless connectivity is being developed to support growing demand from artificial intelligence applications, industrial automation, immersive digital experiences, autonomous systems, distributed computing platforms and increasingly sophisticated machine-to-machine communications.
According to Juniper, the telecom industry is entering the 6G era under significant commercial pressure.
“The rollout of 5G demonstrated that improvements in network performance alone are not sufficient to guarantee sustainable revenue growth or long-term competitive differentiation,” the report stated.
As data consumption continues to rise and digital ecosystems become increasingly complex, operators are being forced to rethink how networks are designed, monetised and integrated into wider digital infrastructure.
The report argues that 6G will represent a fundamental architectural shift rather than simply another upgrade in connectivity. Future networks are expected to become intelligent, distributed and increasingly autonomous, supporting real-time digital services on an unprecedented scale.
Nigeria and the challenge of technology transitions
One of the report’s key observations is that mobile technology generations rarely replace one another overnight.
Despite the rapid growth of 5G in several developed markets, 4G remains the dominant mobile access technology globally and is expected to continue serving billions of users well into the next decade. Meanwhile, 2G and 3G networks remain operational in many countries, supporting low-cost connectivity and specific Internet of Things (IoT) applications.
This reality is particularly relevant for Nigeria and many other emerging markets.
Although commercial 5G services have been available in Nigeria about four years ago, adoption remains constrained by factors such as smartphone affordability, infrastructure gaps and persistent power supply challenges. As a result, large segments of the population continue to rely on 4G networks for everyday connectivity.
Juniper forecasts that 4G will continue accounting for a significant share of global mobile connections well into the 2030s, creating a complex environment in which multiple generations of network technology will coexist.
Why 5G struggled to deliver expected returns
Juniper’s assessment of the 5G era offers important lessons for operators preparing for 6G investments.
According to the report, many telecom companies invested heavily in spectrum auctions, network upgrades and infrastructure expansion with expectations that 5G would unlock substantial new revenue streams.
However, in many markets, consumers viewed 5G largely as a faster version of 4G rather than as a platform capable of enabling entirely new services and business models. This perception made it difficult for operators to charge premium prices or significantly increase revenues.
The challenge was particularly evident in mature telecom markets where average revenue per user (ARPU) remained relatively flat despite continuous increases in data consumption.
At the same time, mobile data traffic continued to surge, driven by video streaming, cloud computing services and a growing number of connected devices. The result was a widening gap between rising network costs and stagnant revenue growth.
Juniper noted that fixed wireless access services, while generating substantial traffic volumes, often fail to produce the same revenue yields as traditional mobile broadband offerings.
Network densification has also added to operators’ challenges. Supporting increasing traffic volumes requires additional base stations, greater backhaul capacity and higher energy consumption, all of which increase operational costs.
Without more efficient infrastructure and stronger monetisation strategies, the report warns that future network investments could become increasingly difficult to justify.
Enterprise demand may drive the 6G opportunity
Rather than relying primarily on smartphone subscriptions, Juniper expects much of the commercial value from 6G to come from enterprise and industrial applications.
The report highlights the growing importance of intelligent IoT systems, connected robotics, digital twins, autonomous transportation networks, smart logistics platforms and AI-enabled industrial operations.
Such applications require highly reliable, ultra-low latency communications capable of processing vast volumes of data in real time.
As enterprises accelerate digital transformation initiatives, 6G is expected to emerge as a critical enabling technology across multiple sectors.
For operators, this presents an opportunity to move beyond basic connectivity services and participate more directly in higher-value digital ecosystems.
Future revenue growth could increasingly come from services such as edge computing, AI-powered network orchestration, predictive maintenance solutions and autonomous operational platforms.
Industries including manufacturing, transportation, logistics, energy and smart infrastructure are expected to become among the earliest and largest drivers of 6G demand during the next decade.
Networks evolve into digital infrastructure
A central element of the 6G vision is the transformation of telecom networks into intelligent digital infrastructure platforms.
Today’s mobile networks primarily function as transport layers that move data between devices and cloud systems. However, this model can create inefficiencies for applications that require immediate responses.
Juniper argues that 6G will bring computing resources closer to where data is generated and processed.
By embedding intelligence and computing capabilities directly into network architecture, operators will be able to support real-time analytics, distributed computing, integrated sensing technologies and AI-driven decision-making processes.
The shift is expected to reduce latency significantly while enabling more advanced digital services across industries.
AI-native networks take centre stage
Artificial intelligence is also expected to play a far more prominent role in 6G than in previous generations of mobile technology.
While AI is already used within 5G environments for traffic management and performance optimisation, Juniper believes future networks will be AI-native by design.
Under this approach, AI capabilities would be embedded across every layer of the network, from radio access systems to core network infrastructure and service orchestration platforms.
These capabilities are expected to become increasingly important as operators manage more connected devices, more complex infrastructure and rising demand for real-time digital services.
The report notes that industry discussions are already underway regarding the extent to which AI should be integrated into future network architectures.
New revenue models become essential
Perhaps the most significant message from the report is that 6G cannot rely solely on traditional connectivity revenues.
As connectivity services become increasingly commoditised, operators face growing challenges in differentiating their offerings and maintaining pricing power.
Juniper points to emerging initiatives such as network application programming interfaces (APIs) developed under the GSMA Open Gateway framework as examples of new monetisation opportunities.
These initiatives could allow operators to expose network capabilities to developers and enterprises, creating new revenue streams around services such as location intelligence, authentication, quality-of-service management and AI-powered applications.
The report also identifies voice AI as a potential value-added service that operators could integrate into both consumer and enterprise offerings.
Without such post-connectivity business models, Juniper warns that the economic justification for large-scale 6G investment could weaken considerably.
Beyond commercial considerations, governments are increasingly treating advanced telecommunications networks as strategic national infrastructure. According to Juniper, 6G development is becoming closely linked to national ambitions around artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, technological sovereignty and economic competitiveness.
As countries position themselves for leadership in future digital economies, investment in 6G is expected to accelerate. However, the report argues that the industry’s greatest challenge is no longer proving what the technology can do, but proving how it can make a return on investment.
For operators worldwide, including those in emerging markets such as Nigeria, the lesson from 5G is becoming increasingly apparent. Faster networks and technological advances do not automatically translate into stronger revenues or sustainable returns. As the countdown to 6G begins, the industry’s future leaders are likely to be those that can transform next-generation networks from connectivity platforms into engines of digital services, enterprise innovation and long-term growth.
