Onome Amuge
Cocoa prices slid on Tuesday, with New York contracts dropping to a one-month low and London benchmarks touching their weakest level in six weeks, as investors weighed worries about weakening demand against signs of tighter supplies from West Africa.
December ICE New York cocoa futures settled 2.13 per cent lower at $7,532 a tonne, down $164 on the day, while December ICE London cocoa dipped 0.25 per cent to £5,079, a loss of £13.
The retreat extended a three-week slide in the market, driven by concerns that record-high cocoa prices and import tariffs could weigh on chocolate demand. London’s losses were cushioned by a weaker pound, which fell to a three-week low against the dollar on Tuesday, boosting the appeal of sterling-denominated cocoa.
Despite the pullback, several underlying supply-side pressures remain supportive of cocoa prices. ICE-monitored inventories in US ports fell to a 3.25-month low of 2.16 million bags last Friday, highlighting tightening availability.
Market participants are also closely monitoring crop conditions in West Africa, the world’s largest cocoa-producing region. Last month, prices rallied to two-month highs after data from the Commodity Weather Group showed that the 30 days through August 15 were the driest for Ivory Coast in 46 years, threatening the retention of pods ahead of the October main-crop harvest.
Ivory Coast has shipped 1.8 million tonnes of cocoa so far this marketing year, up 5.9 per cent on last season, though the pace of exports has slowed sharply since December, when year-on-year growth was more than six times stronger.
Concerns over bean quality have compounded supply risks. Processors in the world’s largest cocoa producing country have reported rejecting truckloads of mid-crop cocoa, citing poor quality levels estimated at 5 to 6 per cent of shipments , far higher than the typical 1 per cent seen in the main crop. Analysts at Rabobank said late-arriving rains had hampered pod development, reducing both the size and quality of this year’s harvest. The mid-crop, which runs from April to September, is forecast at 400,000 tonnes, 9 per cent below last year’s 440,000 tonnes.
Further pressure comes from Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer. The country’s Cocoa Association has forecast 2025/26 production will fall 11 per cent year-on-year to 305,000 tonnes, down from a projected 344,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
Nigeria’s export data underlined the mixed picture. Shipments in June edged 0.9 per cent higher year-on-year to 14,597 tonnes, even as overall annual production forecasts declined.
