In a recent unprecedented move, the leadership of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) and the Federal Government’s Economic Management Team (EMT) jointly called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at Aso Rock Villa, Abuja, to update him with the sterling performance of the country’s stock market in the past few years. The visit took place exactly two weeks to the commencement of campaigns for the 2027 Presidential elections, and exactly six months to the election date. Specifically, the campaigns begin on Wednesday, 19 August 2026, while the Presidential election is scheduled to take place on 16 January 2027.
From the chairman of the board of directors of the NGX, Dr Umaru Kwairanga, and the Group’s managing director/CEO, Temi Popoola, to the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy (who heads the EMT), Taiwo Oyedele—all hailed President Tinubu, and attributed the good performance of the NGX to recent economic reforms. Other members of the EMT on the visiting team: minister of budget and national planning, Atiku Bagudu, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Yemi Cardoso, and chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Zacch Adedeji, each showered encomiums on the president and his reforms.
The NGX Group managing director/CEO, Popoola, deploying some statistics, told President Tinubu that “the picture today is that when you took office in 2023, the total value of stocks listed in Nigeria was just shy of N30 trillion; but, today, Mr. President, that figure is N160 trillion.” He said by the end of this year—with the listing that we are seeing in our market—we expect that figure to rise to N230 trillion.
The NGX boss continued: “The second is the all-share index, which is the measure of growth and performance that we see. When you took over Mr. President, the figure was 52,000; today, that figure is 244,000. As a matter of fact, when we reached 100,000 we didn’t know how to calculate it anymore, because it is not something that we are used to seeing.”
“Mr. President, tied to all these is a lot of wealth that has been created for many people. We don’t have exact figures, but we estimate that about 500,000 to 900,000 millionaires have been created as a result of reforms,” he added. Popoola said other African markets are looking at Nigeria as a model for growing the stock market.
All other members of the team who spoke, similarly poured encomiums on President Tinubu and his reforms, for the sterling performance of the NGX. And for the president, this orchestrated visit came at the nick of time when his administration was searching everywhere to find any wholesome outcome of the reforms to showcase, other than the much-hyped ‘stabilisation of the economy.’ And this is why in the past couple of months, both the president and his head of EMT, Oyedele, have been constituting all manner of panels to review not just aspects of the reforms but also the entire ‘package.’
President Tinubu and Oyedele have also been utilising all available forums to pass the buck on actual development of the country to the state and local governments. Now, as campaigns for the scheduled presidential elections in January 2027 draw near, the NGX, a supposedly autonomous self-regulatory organisation (SRO) has made itself handy as the showpiece of the wholesome results of President Tinubu-administration’s reforms.
But the point must be made that stock markets—all over the world—thrive on neutrality; a perception that attracts and sustains investor interest and confidence. The stock exchange—sensu stricto—is not an agency or appendage of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN). Several years ago, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) officially completed its demutualization, changing from a not-for-profit mutual organisation into a profit-making public limited company now known as the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group). The NGX therefore has its shareholders from within and outside Nigeria.
It is therefore bizarre and ominous that the NGX had to willfully present itself as the only showpiece for the positive outcome of reforms that have caused hardship and sufferings to the vast majority of Nigerians. This explains why Tinubu and Oyedele have been searching very hard to find such showpieces to support the impending presidential campaigns. They found none!
By cheaply making itself a ‘willing tool’ in the hands of the government of the day, the NGX Group has wittingly created investor (or stakeholder)-perception or reputational challenges for itself. Which other FGN agency is good enough for showcasing at this point in time? In point of fact, the much-hyped stock market boom in Nigeria is an outcome of a “flight to safety” from the asphyxiating socio-political and economic condition of the country engendered by the reforms.
As investments in the real sectors are drying up, investors are stuffing their portfolios with capital market (or NGX) offerings—to minimize or hedge against numerous local and external headwinds. Two real-life examples here would suffice: some years ago, Olu Falae, former secretary to the FGN had his large farm (in his home state of Ondo) vandalised and eventually burnt. According to reports, this happened twice; and on each occasion, some staff in the farms either got wounded or killed by the marauding bandits/terrorists/herders.
Today, in retirement in his village, Falae is no longer farming; but he remains an investor. Similarly, a former chairman of the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF) and ex-FIFA top brass who teamed up with some investors to set up an agro-processing factory somewhere in Oyo State, only had an ugly story to tell. No sooner had the factory commenced operations than bandits/terrorists stormed the place, and vandalised the factory. Today, the entire investment is abandoned.
In varying degrees, many Nigerians have similar stories to tell; and one of the few viable options is to turn to the NGX offerings. The other option, for many (especially the youths) is the JAPA phenomenon—through which Nigeria’s young people are emigrating in droves to all parts of the globe for survival. As it is, would the FGN also gather the number of youths that have so far fled the country, and begin to showcase them as one of the gains of President Tinubu’s reforms?
The question is: If the NGX’s performance is a fitting barometer for measuring the health of the Nigerian economy, why has it not reflected in remarkable improvement in job creation, productivity, and general wellbeing of the people? And truly, how many new companies got listed on the NGX in the past few years? Mr. Popoola, the NGX boss, could not give the president such statistics during the hyped visit. Nor could he give figures for the expected new listings that he announced. It is not unlikely that the number of de-listings was more than new listings in the past few years.
The other investments in the oil sector that are also being hyped, namely fresh capitals from some international oil companies (IOCs), are really ‘outside’ the shores of the country. Specifically, fresh investments by Shell, Chevron and others are deliberately in the deep offshore waters. To the IOCs, onshore or hinterland in Nigeria is really unconducive for business; heightening insecurity and other risks actually repel them.
Now that the only “oasis” in Nigeria’s investment “desert”—the NGX—has allowed itself to be pulled into the political chessboard as a pawn, certainly investor-confidence is threatened. The visit to President Tinubu at this time vividly shows the allegiance of the NGX (even as a Plc) lies with the government of the day. The neutrality of the bourse which used to be its core unique selling point (USP), and attraction to investors, is now expropriated. Not too many investors would want to continue to invest their funds in or through an agency that has become a showpiece of the government of the day that is yet contending with confidence-deficit. It’s like the NGX is contaminated!
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Marcel Okeke, a practising economist and consultant in Business Strategy & Sustainability based in Lagos, is a former Chief Economist at Zenith Bank Plc. He can be reached at: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com; +2348033075697
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NGX political wrong call in showcasing reforms’ success