The global economy may be weathering the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict better than many analysts initially feared, but beneath the headline resilience lies a widening divide that is hitting Africa disproportionately hard.
In its latest assessment of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said strong economic momentum in the United States and China, combined with continued investment in artificial intelligence and technology infrastructure, has helped cushion the impact of a prolonged energy supply shock triggered by the war.
However, the Fund warned that the benefits of this resilience are not being shared evenly.
While advanced economies and major technology exporters continue to attract investment and sustain growth, many African countries are confronting rising fuel costs, worsening external balances, mounting fiscal pressures and growing food security risks.
“The global economy appears to be holding up,” the IMF noted, but added that the overall picture masks “significant disparities” across regions and countries.
The warning comes more than three months after the conflict disrupted one of the world’s most important energy corridors and triggered a sharp rise in oil prices.
Although crude prices remain roughly 30 percent above pre-war levels, major economies have largely absorbed the shock through strategic reserves, stronger policy buffers and continued investor confidence.
China has relied on extensive oil reserves to cushion supply disruptions, while increased refinery activity outside the Gulf region has helped moderate some of the pressure on global energy markets.
At the same time, robust investment in artificial intelligence, data centres and digital infrastructure has emerged as an important growth driver, particularly in the United States and parts of Asia.
According to the IMF, technology-related investment has become a key source of economic resilience in countries where growth remains strong.
Yet the Fund cautioned that many emerging and developing economies have not benefited from the productivity gains associated with the ongoing technology boom, creating the risk of deeper economic divergence.
“Most countries are yet to feel the productivity and growth impact of technology,” the IMF said, warning that unequal access to technological advancement could widen global income and growth gaps.
For Africa, the challenge is compounded by energy dependence and limited fiscal space.
Many countries across the continent rely heavily on imported fuel and have little capacity to absorb the resulting increase in energy costs.
The IMF noted that rising import bills are worsening current account balances, increasing government financing needs and putting additional strain on already fragile public finances.
The pressure is already visible in several economies.
Countries including Ethiopia, Malawi and Zambia have experienced fuel shortages, while others such as Rwanda, Tanzania and Lesotho have recorded gasoline price increases of about 50 percent since the onset of the conflict.
The impact extends beyond transport and energy markets.
Higher fuel prices have increased the cost of fertiliser production and agricultural distribution, creating additional risks for food security across low-income economies.
The Fund warned that prolonged disruptions could reduce agricultural output and further accelerate food inflation in vulnerable countries.
Central banks are being urged to maintain vigilance against inflation while governments face growing pressure to support households without undermining fiscal sustainability.
With borrowing costs rising globally, the Fund cautioned against broad-based subsidies and price controls, arguing that such measures may provide temporary relief but often create larger fiscal burdens over time.
Instead, it recommends targeted and temporary interventions focused on protecting vulnerable populations while preserving market signals.
The Fund also stressed that governments must avoid allowing short-term crisis management to crowd out long-term investments in technology and human capital.
According to the IMF, ensuring that developing economies participate in AI-driven growth will require sustained investment in digital infrastructure, education and workforce development.
It noted that failure to do so could leave many countries further behind as technological transformation reshapes global competitiveness.
Despite the challenges, the IMF said most member countries are currently seeking policy guidance rather than emergency financial assistance.
However, it revealed that support requests are increasing among countries facing severe external financing pressures.
The Gambia has requested additional funding and an extension of its programme, while Burkina Faso has reached a staff-level agreement for increased financing. Discussions are also underway to accelerate funding for Ethiopia and establish a new programme for Malawi.
The Fund said it remains prepared to provide both financial assistance and policy support as countries navigate the uncertainty created by the conflict.
For Africa, however, the IMF’s message is clear: while the global economy may be proving resilient, resilience is increasingly becoming a privilege of countries with stronger institutions, deeper financial buffers and access to technology-driven growth.
