• Up from $120bn as of 2025
• Figures forecasts, not commitments
• African airlines could acquire used aircraft, lease planes than buy new ones
• Expansion tied to finance, economic conditions, infrastructure
Africa’s aviation industry will expand to a $140 billion market by 2045, absorbing 1,165 new jets, and create 75,000 aviation jobs, according to Boeing’s latest commercial market outlook (CMO).
The world’s second biggest aircraft manufacturer says it expects Africa’s commercial aircraft fleet to grow from 755 planes in 2025 to 1,625 by 2045, showing a massive 46.46 percent increase.
Additionally, the continent’s 1,165 new aircraft will include 870 single-aisle jets and 240 wide-body planes.
Boeing expects passenger traffic within Africa to increase by 6.5 percent annually through 2045. Traffic between Africa and the Middle East is projected to grow even faster, at 7.1 percent a year.
The US aircraft manufacturer and world’s second biggest aircraft maker estimates that the expansion will also create a $140 billion aviation-services market covering aircraft maintenance, repairs, modifications and digital services.
This projection does not mean African airlines have ordered 1,165 Boeing aircraft. The total represents Boeing’s estimate of deliveries from all manufacturers, including Airbus and producers of smaller regional aircraft such as Embraer of Brazil
Also, the growth assumes that African airlines can overcome persistent obstacles including high ticket prices, limited direct connections, expensive aviation fuel, airport charges and restrictions on travel between some African countries.
Many journeys between African cities still require passengers to connect through Europe or the Middle East, increasing both fares and travelling time.
Africa’s current aviation sector generates $120 billion in annual revenue, and contributes $75 billion directly to the continent’s GDP, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and local summit trackers.
The industry also currently supports roughly 8.1 million jobs across the continent. A summary of the current market’s financial and operational footprint shows: total revenue at $120 billion, GDP contribution at $75 billion, net industry profit projected at $100 million (down from $300 million in 2025 due to severe cost pressures. Profit margin stands at 0.2 percent (the thinnest margins globally per passenger).
Passenger volume surpasses 113 million passengers annually. Future services value at $140 billion projected over the next 20 years for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO).
However, the figures may be long-term projections, not confirmed yet by aircraft orders or guaranteed jobs.
Smaller aircraft to drive most growth
The Boeing’s latest commercial market outlook expects single-aisle aircraft to account for 870 of the projected deliveries. These planes are commonly used for domestic and regional flights and include models such as the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 families.
The forecast also includes 240 wide-body aircraft for longer international routes, 40 regional jets and 15 freighters.
Meanwhile, Africa’s dedicated cargo fleet is expected to grow from approximately 60 aircraft to 150, supported by demand for transporting flowers, pharmaceuticals, agricultural exports and e-commerce parcels.
Just recently, Embraer of Brazil is promoting the sale of its E190 converted passenger aircraft into 13-tonne cargo freighters, targeting Nigerian and African airlines freighting. In particular, the jet manufacturer is seeking to profit from the continent’s weak air, road and rail connections.
The converted E190 passenger jets as freighters are capable of carrying medicines, fresh food, and other time-sensitive African cargo.
Thousands of trained aviation workers needed
Aircraft purchases represent only part of the investment required. The growth can be guaranteed by requisite capacity. For example, Boeing estimates that African aviation will need 22,000 additional pilots, 25,000 technicians and 28,000 cabin crew over the next 20 years.
The technician requirement is particularly significant because several African airlines still send aircraft and major components abroad for specialised maintenance. Developing more certified facilities on the continent could allow African companies to capture a larger share of Boeing’s projected $140 billion services market.
Major carriers on the continent, including Ethiopian Airlines, EgyptAir and Kenya Airways are believed to account for a large part of the expected expansion.
For instance, Ethiopian Airlines is currently developing a $12.5 billion airport near Addis Ababa, designed to support its growth as an international passenger and cargo hub.
However, aviation industry watchers adduce that Boeing’s figures remain only forecasts rather than commitments. African airlines may opt to acquire used aircraft, lease planes, instead of purchasing them, or delay expansion if financing costs, economic conditions and infrastructure problems make new routes unprofitable.
Aviation analysts say the opportunity is not the delivery of more aircraft. The larger test comes from whether African airlines, training institutions and maintenance companies on the continent can capture the jobs and services expected to accompany the continent’s expected expanding fleet.
