Global shipping is coming under increasing pressure from geopolitical tensions and operational risks that are reshaping maritime trade routes and raising complexity for insurers, according to Allianz Commercial.
In its latest Safety and Shipping Review, the insurer said international maritime trade, which carries about 90 percent of global goods by volume, is no longer driven only by traditional risks such as weather, machinery failure and collisions, but is increasingly being influenced by political instability and repeated disruptions along key trade corridors.
The report pointed to recent instability in strategic waterways, including the Strait of Hormuz, as part of a broader pattern of disruption affecting global shipping routes. It said such incidents are contributing to what it described as a shift toward a “new maritime order,” characterised by heightened security risks, unstable trade lanes, higher insurance premiums and a growing emphasis on resilience over cost efficiency.
The insurer noted that the Middle East conflict temporarily paralysed activity in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route. Allianz Research data showed that about 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels were affected, with combined vessel and cargo exposure estimated at $125 billion, alongside around 29 million gross tonnes of shipping capacity. As many as 20,000 seafarers were also left waiting in the Persian Gulf for operations to resume following diplomatic progress.
It said the situation underscored the importance of maritime chokepoints to global trade, while also highlighting operational disruption and prolonged uncertainty for crews at sea. Although marine insurance cover remained available during the crisis, premiums for hull and cargo rose, with insurers noting that the main concern for shipowners was the safety of vessels and crew rather than insurance availability.
Beyond geopolitical risks, the review said traditional causes of maritime losses remain significant, even as overall safety levels improve. It noted that more than 900 total vessel losses have been recorded over the past decade for ships above 100 gross tonnes. Between 2016 and 2020, there were 555 losses, compared with 350 between 2021 and 2025, reflecting a 37 percent decline.
In 2025 alone, 43 total losses were recorded, with more than 30 involving vessels above 500 gross tonnes. The report said this suggests that while incidents are declining, risks are becoming more concentrated in larger, higher-impact events.
Machinery damage or failure remains the leading cause of shipping incidents globally, accounting for more than half of cases, followed by collisions and fire-related incidents. More than 200 fire incidents on large vessels, including container ships and car carriers, were recorded in 2025, making it one of the most persistent risk areas despite a year-on-year decline.
Overall, global shipping incidents fell by about 16 percent, from 3,353 in 2024 to 2,818 in 2025. The East Mediterranean and Black Sea region recorded the highest number of incidents, followed closely by the British Isles, which also ranks as one of the most incident-prone regions over the past decade.
The report also highlighted a growing risk linked to the increasing size of modern vessels. It said larger ships, while more efficient, raise the scale of potential losses, particularly through general average claims where cargo owners and ship operators share costs during emergencies.
Such claims, it noted, are becoming more complex and costly, with contributions sometimes reaching up to 50 percent of cargo value. In cases involving thousands of high-value goods such as electric vehicles, losses can exceed $100 million.
Speaking on the findings, Rahul Khanna, global head of Marine Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial, said shipping routes are becoming increasingly uncertain, with events such as conflicts, pandemics or port blockages capable of triggering major supply chain disruptions. He said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the fragility of critical chokepoints and is pushing the industry toward “just-in-case” supply chains focused on resilience rather than cost efficiency.
He added that while insurance markets respond quickly to crises, the greater challenge lies in understanding how interconnected risks are becoming, as the industry also grapples with rising claims costs, decarbonisation pressures and fleet renewal challenges.
Thomas Lillelund, chief executive of Allianz Commercial, said the industry is undergoing a structural shift from decades of stable and predictable trade patterns to a more volatile operating environment. He said shipping operators now have to balance resilience, geopolitics and efficiency in a way that was not previously required, as uncertainty increasingly shapes global maritime trade and insurance decisions.
“Insurance markets react quickly to crises, but the real challenge for companies is understanding how risks are interconnected. That’s why resilience and risk management are becoming just as important as insurance coverage. The shipping industry is facing turbulent times, not only from geopolitical instability, but also from traditional hull and machinery risks, where we see claims costs continue to rise, as well as from decarbonisation and fleet renewal challenges. Our role as an insurer is to support our clients as both a risk carrier and a resilience partner to mitigate risks before they become a damaging loss event,” says Justus Heinrich, global product leader Marine Hull at Allianz Commercial.
