Two recent developments in the Nigerian political economy space sparked rising concern and worry on the direction the country is headed, if it was heading anywhere at all.
The first was a frightening video by the presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party, Adewole Adebayo, in which he accused President Tinubu of undermining the democratic process by ‘shoving” poorly crafted electoral reforms down the throat of the current National Assembly.
“It was during Ramadan. The president is a Muslim, so we said let us wait, that with the fasting, he would be in a state of grace, and that instead of us looking for him, he would look for us. So the president sent out invitations to all political parties, and asked them to come to Aso Rock Villa to perform their Iftar breaking of fast.
“So we now set an agenda for him and asked all the leaders of the political parties to go there, and we made preparations and we asked that the president be briefed of the moral crisis facing the country. We said, Mr. President, you are our leader, you are our father. Please, remember your duty to this country. You are our head of state. This Electoral Act that you are shoving down the throat of the National Assembly, is not going to be good for this country, an election only one person can win, and you want that person not to lose, by winning and that would result in politicians winning and the people winning. We made several respectful recommendations to the president as the father of the nation.
“The president would have said, ‘I have heard you, and will pray over it.” But he just jumped up and shouted, “Why will I help the nation? Why will I help you? I am contesting. You are provoking me, when I was in the opposition, I suffered; go and suffer your own. Why should I mind? If you don’t want to vote, don’t vote; who said you must vote? Vote laws that favour free and fair elections. Can you sleep in your house?’ He concluded by saying, ‘politics is a game – the game is sweet when you are winning’.
The second is a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which stated that the poverty rate in Nigeria had climbed to a frightening 63 percent, even as the macroeconomic environment had been quite stable under president Bola Tinubu.
This disclosure, according to the Nigerian Tribune, came in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation report and concluding statement following its mission to Nigeria. While praising reforms implemented over the past three years, the Fund painted a sobering picture of living conditions for ordinary citizens, an estimated 27 million of whom, faced food insecurity in the latter part of 2025.
The two issues are not connected, you might think, but they both speak to the brand Nigeria and the way it is being managed. While the former speaks directly to the president’s lack of belief in due process and credible elections, a process that should be the true source of legitimacy for his government, the latter speaks to the outcome of whatever reforms he has been introducing to the economy since the first day he took office as the president of Nigeria.
The SDP presidential candidate’s report says everything: the president is averse to a credible electoral process. He does not want a credible electoral process, and has apparently been using the institutions of state to impose a process that would produce the outcome he had already preplanned.
A situation where the president himself is speaking to citizens in such a way breeds profound lack of belief in the country and the system. What the president was quoted as saying does not sound like something that can ever be connected either directly or indirectly with the Renewed Hope mantra which this government of President Bola Tinubu has been heavily preaching to Nigerians.
However, will the people anchor their belief in a country, whose leader speaks so carelessly about an electoral process he is supervising? That he was saying so to some opposition elements says so much about the kind of democratic government he is running.
In an article he wrote that was published on www.lberties.eu, Jonathan Day, while listing the 14 principles of democratic participation, mentioned participation of citizens as number 1. He explained that, “The strongest pillar of democracy anywhere in the world is a free and credible election; it has to be free and seen to be free by all players – incumbent, opposition and neutral observers. By its very definition, democracy allows the people a voice in charting the course of their government and their future. In direct democracies, this can mean citizens vote directly on the laws they live under. In representative democracy, it means they get to choose who represents them and have a free voice to express their opinions and desires. In either case, citizen participation is the foundation that makes democracy strong.
“Participation is not just voting on election day, although this is surely its most notable form. But equally important are public debate, town meetings, and peaceful protests, among other things. Each of these are forms of participation that help make people informed when it does come time to mark a ballot. Citizens’ groups and civil society help make sure people have the ability to do all of these things and should be supported to ensure greatest participation.”
Day had never seen a Nigeria where political parties would gather to meet the president for what could, for more convenient classifications, pass for public debates and town meetings, as prescribed in this democratic process participation and get scolded by the president, who literally did not pretend he was doing anything else other than preparing the arena for his own coronation in spite of the people and whatever their preferences might ever be.
This metamorphosis of Tinubu, from the man who was at the top echelon of NADECO (National Democratic Coalition), a group of nationalists who fought the military until they were compelled to hand over power to an elected civilian administration, is hard to understand.
The video where this allegation was made against the president has trended on social media so much that it could have attracted a presidential response, but none of the president’s spokespersons has so far reacted to the video, preferring to chase those they allege were behind a contrived voice of Tinubu, and apparently preferring the hiring of thugs to prevent VeryDarkBlackMan from protesting against the abduction of teachers and school children in Ibadan.
When you fuse this to the IMF report, it reveals to you the true meaning of cause and effect. This is not saying that the soaring poverty rate was the result of Tinubu’s preference for a faulty electoral process. But it appears so, when one looks at the vast universe of the behaviours, dispositions and preferences of the man in charge of the affairs of Nigeria — what he does, fails to do and leaves undone, and what the combination of these and other factors conspire to cause to happen on the economy.
The IMF report was released around the same period when its sister institution, the World Bank released its own damning report, saying that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty. Although the federal government was quick to repudiate this report, claiming the institution didn’t get the facts correct, it must also be recalled that in April, the same World Bank accused the same federal government of hidden expenses from the federation account.
But this, we must recall, happened around a time there were reports alleging direct deductions from the allocations to states of huge sums of money that were allegedly paid into the account of a state governor, for and said to be funds for the re-election of President Tinubu.
The World Bank report says there are deductions from the federal allocation; already, there were discoveries of deductions from state allocations. Even if what the World Bank saw was different from the deductions transferred to the state governor, did that not constitute illegal deduction? The fact that those deductions were made for the benefit of the president’s re-election efforts cannot make this legal.
Citizens whimpered a bit and the country continued its drift. Such an illegal deduction that was transferred to the private purse of a person for the purpose of running the re-election of the incumbent president should have attracted a lot more than the whimpering of a handful of activists. It should have attracted high-octane national outrage that should shake the very foundations of the nation.
But it doesn’t appear as if Nigeria stands for anything anymore. There are no minimum standards of corruption and national disgrace; no sacred areas that cannot be violated. We have become an anyhow republic where having been arrested on corruption charges has become important items on the curriculum vitae of politicians. Those who approach governance with impunity are courted for having stashed enough funds to prosecute the coming election. They are offered choice posts in advance, in exchange for the huge sums they are capable of doling out for elections; they are revered for their capabilities for electoral malfeasance.
The Nigerian national brand is worth next to nothing these days. South Africa has been hounding Nigerian citizens for years, killing and destroying their businesses, without any form of diplomatic kick from the Nigerian government. This is the same Nigeria that mobilised the world to chase away apartheid and win freedom and equality for black South Africa communities; the same country whose citizens, our fathers, paid monthly taxes to take care of.
Nigeria was home to the leadership of the African National Congress, the beacon of the liberation struggle. Nigerian universities hosted hundreds of young anti-apartheid campaigners, who found home in Nigeria to prepare for the future political takeover of the country. But poor leadership and corruption have reduced Nigeria to the level where they cannot stand up to South Africa, even when she is messing with the lives of her citizens.
The faces and cries of Nigerians currently stranded for nearly one month at the Nigerian Embassy in Pretoria tell the world of how Nigeria loves her citizens. People have left their various homes all over South Africa and gathered at the embassy for evacuation to Nigeria but there are stories about abandonment and neglect in the winter cold of this country hugging both the Atlantic and the Pacific.
Who will respect a country that cares so little about the lives and safety of her citizens?
Advertising the country so wretchedly before the world, and particularly in a country so determined to deal so cruelly with your citizens; you are egging the renegades-turned-nationalists on and providing them with good reasons to treat your citizens even more terribly.
Nigeria has apparently never heard of the transformative pledge of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, which preaches that “no one should be left behind.” This pledge is also the key driver of the United States and Israeli military, and inspires them to undertake highly risky but brave missions, aimed at saving any of their own – military or civilian – trapped behind enemy lines.
Nigerians have become as endangered abroad as they are at home. Those unable to flee abroad have been surrounded by bandits and militants who are being tolerated under the funniest of excuses. The Nigerian green passport is among the least respected in the world. But so long as the corruption fountain keeps flowing, it doesn’t bother those in government.
Again, who will respect a country that does not care about the welfare and safety of her citizens?
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Ikem Okuhu, a journalist, author, PR professional, brand strategist and teacher, is the Executive Producer of C-Suite Cafe podcast as well as CEO of BRANDish, publishers of BRANDish, Nigeria’s first nationally circulating Brands and Marketing magazine. He has a career that has traversed print media, oil & gas, banking and entrepreneurship. Ikem is the author of the book, “PITCH: Debunking Marketing’s Strongest Myths”, a dispassionate exposition of the dos and don’ts of successful engagement in the marketplace, especially the Nigerian marketplace. He can be reached on + 234 8095121535 (text only) or brandishauthority@gmail.com
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