Access Bank analysts expect the MPC to hold the MPR at 26.50% as policymakers weigh falling inflation against renewed external risks
The Central Bank of Nigeria enters this week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting with an increasingly unusual policy problem: the economy is improving, but the case for easing monetary conditions is not yet clear-cut.
Inflation is falling. Growth is accelerating. The naira has strengthened and foreign-exchange reserves have climbed to their highest level in 18 years.
Yet a renewed surge in global oil prices, driven partly by geopolitical tensions, threatens to complicate the disinflation that has begun to give the CBN greater policy room.
Against that backdrop, analysts at Access Bank’s Economic Intelligence Unit expect the MPC to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.50 percent when it meets on September 21–22.
The expected decision would leave the central bank in wait-and-see mode: preserving the gains from its restrictive stance while seeking stronger evidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path.
A hold is not necessarily a hawkish signal
The case for maintaining the policy rate is becoming less about the need to suppress a weakening economy and more about the need to protect recent stabilisation gains.
Nigeria’s real GDP expanded 4.43 percent in the second quarter of 2026, accelerating from 3.89 percent in Q1.
At the same time, headline inflation declined to 15.39 percent in August, while core inflation fell sharply to 13.29 percent.
The monthly numbers were even more encouraging. Headline inflation slowed to 0.71 percent from 1.57 percent in July, while monthly food inflation dropped to 1.02 percent from 5.56 percent.
For the MPC, those figures provide evidence that previous tightening is beginning to work. But they also create a reason to wait.
Cutting rates before the disinflation process is firmly established could risk reversing some of the progress that has taken place in the currency and inflation markets.
Access Bank therefore expects the committee to retain the current 26.50 percent MPR, the asymmetric corridor of +50/-450 basis points, the 45 percent CRR for deposit-money banks, the 16 percent CRR for merchant banks and the 30 percent liquidity ratio.
The naira changes the equation
One of the strongest arguments supporting policy patience is the improvement in Nigeria’s external position.
Foreign reserves reached $54.28 billion by September 8, while the naira strengthened from ₦1,379.40/$ on July 21 to ₦1,322.75/$ by September 7.
Foreign-exchange turnover also increased 15.65 percent in August to $14.68 billion.
The combination of stronger oil receipts, portfolio inflows and improved FX liquidity has reduced some of the pressure that previously constrained monetary policy.
A more stable naira also helps contain imported inflation. For the CBN, it creates valuable breathing space.
But the improvement comes with an uncomfortable dependence on oil revenues.
Oil is now both the cushion and the risk
Brent crude rose to about $97.92 a barrel by September 8, while Nigeria’s Bonny Light reached $107.54.
For an oil-dependent economy, the immediate benefits are substantial: stronger export receipts, higher foreign-exchange inflows and further support for reserves.
But higher crude prices can also feed into transportation, energy and production costs.
That could slow the decline in inflation precisely when policymakers are beginning to contemplate whether monetary conditions can eventually be eased.
Geopolitical tensions have added another layer of uncertainty, with concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure increasing the risk of prolonged oil-price volatility.
The result is a delicate policy balance.
A higher oil price strengthens Nigeria’s external accounts while potentially weakening the inflation outlook. That is one reason a rate cut at this stage could be premature.
What markets will watch beyond the rate
For investors, the most important signal from the September meeting may not be the policy rate itself.
It will be the MPC’s assessment of how durable the current disinflation is.
A continued decline in inflation, sustained currency stability and further reserve accumulation could gradually strengthen the case for lower rates.
A renewed acceleration in food or energy prices, however, could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.
Credit conditions will also remain important. Private-sector credit reached ₦83.43 trillion in July, while broad money supply increased to ₦138.88 trillion. The continued expansion of credit despite tight monetary conditions suggests that the economy is adapting to the current policy environment rather than simply being paralysed by it.
That could eventually make it easier for the CBN to reduce rates without fearing an abrupt deterioration in economic activity. But the timing remains uncertain.
The next move matters more than this one
The September meeting is therefore likely to be remembered less for an unchanged rate than for what it reveals about the CBN’s reaction function.
If the committee holds at 26.50 percent, the decision would signal that policymakers are prepared to give disinflation more time to establish itself while monitoring the effects of the external oil shock.
It would not necessarily close the door on easing.
Indeed, the improving domestic data increasingly point towards a future in which the CBN could begin reducing the degree of monetary restraint.
The question is whether that future arrives before another external shock forces policymakers to keep their foot on the brake.
For now, Access Bank’s assessment is that the evidence favours patience rather than a policy shift.
That makes September less a meeting about whether Nigeria is recovering—it clearly is—and more about whether the recovery has become sufficiently stable for the central bank to begin contemplating what comes after monetary restraint.
The rate may stay at 26.50 percent. The bigger market question is how much longer it needs to.
