Copper prices led gains across the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals complex, supported by a weaker US dollar and improving investor risk appetite following a stabilisation in equity markets after Thursday’s selloff in technology stocks.
Benchmark three-month copper rose 0.9 percent to $14,480 per metric tonne in official open-outcry trading, recovering from a near two-week low of $14,256 reached on Thursday.
The rebound comes as copper, a key industrial metal used in power infrastructure, construction, manufacturing and the energy transition, remains up 17 percent so far this year, despite recent volatility. Prices reached a record high of $14,875 a tonne five weeks ago.
However, market analysts have cautioned that the rally could face renewed pressure towards the end of the year as the flow of refined copper into the United States ahead of anticipated tariffs begins to ease, potentially releasing additional supplies into international markets.
Ian Roper, metals researcher at brokerage Marex, said the tightness in refined copper this year had largely reflected the continued movement of metal into the US in anticipation of tariffs expected in January 2027.
“The real tightness in refined copper this year has been due to refined metal continuing to flood into the US ahead of anticipated tariffs to come in January next year,” Roper said in a presentation.
He expects copper prices to come under pressure towards year-end as the window for shipments to clear US customs before the end of December begins to close in early December, allowing more metal to become available to buyers outside the US.
Market structure is also signalling supply constraints across several base metals, with copper, zinc, aluminium and tin heading into next week in backwardation.
Backwardation occurs when cash contracts trade at a premium to futures contracts for later delivery, a structure that can indicate tightness in immediately available supplies relative to expectations for future availability.
The pattern is particularly relevant as the annual LME Week gathering takes place in London next week, bringing together metals consumers, producers, traders and brokers at a time when monthly LME contracts are approaching their third-Wednesday expiry.
The gathering is expected to provide a key forum for industry participants to assess demand prospects, physical supply conditions and the outlook for metals prices amid shifting trade flows and production trends.
Other LME base metals also advanced in Friday’s official trading, although their longer-term supply outlooks varied.
Aluminium rose 0.8 percent to $3,011.50 a tonne, extending the broader recovery across the complex. However, analysts expect the market to move into surplus in 2027 as additional supply from Indonesia comes on stream and shipments from Gulf smelters recover.
The anticipated increase in availability could weigh on prices over the medium term, even as aluminium benefits from its extensive use in transport, packaging, construction and electricity infrastructure.
Zinc gained 0.9 percent to $3,698.50 a tonne. Roper warned that rising Chinese exports could put pressure on the metal in the coming months, suggesting that increased export availability may offset some of the support from broader market sentiment.
Nickel also advanced 0.9 percent to $15,350 a tonne, recovering after touching $15,070 on Thursday, its lowest level in nearly 10 months.
According to Roper, production costs in Indonesia, the world’s leading nickel producer, are providing support for prices around current levels.
The market’s sensitivity to production economics reflects Indonesia’s growing influence over global nickel supply. Higher operating costs can constrain the ability of some producers to sustain output at lower prices, although the extent of any resulting supply response remains uncertain.
Lead and tin also recorded gains, rising 0.5 percent to $1,890 and $50,350 a tonne, respectively.
