The Nigerian equities market extended its bullish trajectory this week, defying prevailing macroeconomic headwinds to push the market capitalisation past the N83 trillion mark. This strong performance was primarily fueled by improved investor sentiment and fund inflows, with particular strength observed in blue-chip stocks. Leading the charge were the industrial heavyweights, notably BUA Cement and Dangote Cement, which emerged as the week’s most impactful gainers.

The market’s upward movement gained momentum from a moderation in headline inflation, which rekindled buying interest across key sectors, most prominently in the banking, industrial goods, and consumer goods segments. Although midweek data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed a continued decline in headline inflation for June 2025, both the food and core inflation sub-indices reversed their downward trend following a recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing exercise. This development has prompted a cautious reassessment of the near-term inflation trajectory, adding a layer of complexity to the otherwise optimistic market outlook.

Despite the inflationary dynamics, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) roared past the critical 131,000 psychological barrier, closing at 131,585.66 points. This represented a 4.31 per cent week-on-week (w/w) gain. Concurrently, market capitalisation climbedN3.44 trillion, also up 4.31 per cent w/w, to settle at N83.24 trillion. The year-to-date (YTD) return improved to 27.84 per cent, underscoring sustained investor appetite in the Nigerian bourse.

However, beneath the surface of the headline gains, market breadth remained relatively weak at 0.91x, with 49 gainers against 54 losers. This signals a selective participation, indicating that while overall market strength is considerable, gains are concentrated in specific, high-performing stocks.

Trading activity was notably upbeat across the board. Total traded volume rose 224.62 per cent w/w to 17.49 billion units, while market turnover gained 364.48 per cent w/w to N500.76 billion. The jump in value traded was largely propelled by two sizeable off-market transactions. First Bank Holdings recorded a block trade of 10.4 billion units, and Fidelity Bank saw a block trade of 1.1 billion units, both contributing substantially to the weekly liquidity increases.

Investor optimism was also anchored on expectations for a potentially more dovish (less aggressive on rate hikes) stance from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its upcoming July meeting. This anticipation of a favourable monetary policy environment further incentivised capital inflow into equities.

Sectoral performance skewed overwhelmingly positive, with four out of the six major indexes under review closing in the green. The NGX Industrial Index was the standout performer, leading the market with a 19.17 per cent w/w return. This exceptional performance was overwhelmingly driven by strong gains in the cement sector, with BUA Cement, Dangote Cement, and Lafarge Africa posting significant rallies.

BUA Cement emerged as a top performer, registering a 31.3 per cent gain for the week, significantly contributing to the industrial sector’s gain. Similarly, Dangote Cement, another industry heavyweight, played a pivotal role in this sectoral dominance. Their strong performance reflects sustained demand for building materials and investor confidence in Nigeria’s infrastructure development.

Following the industrial sector, the NGX Banking Index rose by 5.36 per cent, the Consumer Goods Index by 1.34 per cent, and the Commodity Index by 0.69 per cent. These gains were supported by price appreciation in a diverse range of companies including Nestle, Stanbic IBTC, Nascon, Okomu Oil, AccessCorp, Nigerian Breweries, and UBA.

On the flip side, not all sectors shared in the market’s bullishness. The NGX Insurance Index experienced a decline of 3.65 per cent w/w, and the Oil & Gas Index fell by 0.76 per cent w/w, amidst sell-offs in stocks such as ConHall Plc, Universal Insurance, NEM, CORONATION, MRS, and Oando.

Beyond the major indices, top-performing individual stocks for the week included Eunisell (32.6%), BUA Cement (31.3%), ABC Transport (28.4%), IMG (24.9%), and NSL Tech (21.0%). Conversely, stocks like Academy Press (-24.3%), RT Briscoe (-22.7%), Cutix (-19.6%), Caverton (-19.3%), and Champion Breweries (-17.5%) ranked among the week’s biggest lossers.

Looking ahead, analysts at Cowry Asset predict that market sentiment is expected to remain mixed as investors keenly await the outcome of the July MPC meeting. The recent reversal in food and core inflation readings, despite the headline moderation, introduces uncertainty and could encourage a policy hold, they noted. 

From a technical standpoint, Cowry Asset also pointed out that the NGX ASI remains in overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 92.41, typically suggesting a potential for a market correction. Nonetheless, the index continues to trade above the T-line and both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating underlying strength and a strong medium-term trend.