Nigeria’s food import bill is showing early signs of moderation as businesses increasingly adapt to higher foreign exchange costs and government-backed local sourcing initiatives, although the country remains heavily dependent on imported food and industrial raw materials to meet domestic demand.
Latest trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that food and beverage imports fell to N1.39 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, down from N1.67 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 16.7 percent.
While the decline points to progress in efforts to reduce dependence on imported food products, analysts caution that the figures also reflect the impact of rising import costs and pressure on manufacturers rather than a complete transformation of domestic food production capacity.
Data from the NBS show that imports of primary food products declined to N634.05 billion during the quarter from N730.01 billion a year earlier. Food and beverage imports destined for industrial use also fell significantly, dropping to N353.24 billion from N425.62 billion in the same period of 2025.
The decline comes against the backdrop of sweeping economic reforms implemented over the past two years, including exchange rate liberalisation and policies aimed at encouraging domestic production in critical sectors.
Government programmes promoting backward integration in agriculture and food processing have targeted industries such as rice, sugar, dairy, and other strategic commodities where Nigeria spends substantial amounts on imports annually.
Higher import costs following the depreciation of the naira have also altered purchasing decisions across both industrial and consumer markets, making locally sourced alternatives more attractive where available.
The trend may also reflect inventory adjustments by manufacturers seeking to manage working capital requirements amid elevated borrowing costs and a challenging operating environment.
Despite the overall decline, the data reveal that Nigeria’s reliance on imported food products remains substantial.
Food and beverage imports still accounted for N1.39 trillion within just three months, underscoring the scale of domestic supply gaps across several agricultural and manufacturing value chains.
Nigeria continues to depend heavily on imports of wheat, malt, fish, milk preparations, and other industrial food inputs that are critical to food production, beverage manufacturing, and consumer goods industries.
The country’s food import dependence remains evident when viewed against annual figures. In 2025 alone, Nigeria imported food and beverage products worth N7.65 trillion, one of the largest components of the nation’s overall import expenditure.
Analysts note that while import substitution efforts have gained momentum, structural constraints continue to limit domestic production capacity. These include low agricultural productivity, inadequate storage infrastructure, high logistics costs, insecurity in food-producing regions, and limited access to affordable financing for agribusiness operators.
Interestingly, the latest figures also reveal a divergence in consumer demand patterns.
Compared with the first quarter of 2024, imports of household food consumption products increased significantly from N186.65 billion, indicating that consumer demand for certain imported food items remains resilient despite import moderation.
This trend highlights a persistent challenge for policymakers seeking to achieve greater food self-sufficiency. While industrial users may be gradually increasing local sourcing, consumer preferences and domestic supply limitations continue to sustain demand for imported food products.
The data points out that domestic production has yet to fully satisfy household demand across several product categories, particularly processed and packaged food items where imports continue to play a major role.
The moderation in food imports also comes after a series of policy interventions aimed at stabilising food prices and easing inflationary pressures.
In June 2024, President Bola Tinubu approved a temporary suspension of import duties on selected staple food products, pharmaceuticals, and essential goods as part of broader efforts to address rising living costs.
Although the measure provided some relief to importers, broader foreign exchange pressures have remained a dominant factor shaping import decisions.
Economists say the latest figures may indicate the early emergence of a more balanced food supply structure, where local production gradually captures a larger share of demand while imports become more targeted toward products and inputs not readily available within the country.
However, they caution that sustained progress will depend on continued investment in agriculture, agro-processing, transportation infrastructure, and rural productivity improvements.
