Nigeria is set to become the main engine of sub-Saharan Africa’s solar expansion, with cumulative solar capacity projected to reach 87 gigawatts by 2035 as unreliable grid power, rising fuel costs and growing demand for energy security accelerate the shift towards distributed renewable energy.
BloombergNEF (BNEF) forecasts that Nigeria’s annual solar additions will rise from 2.4GW in 2026 to 7.8GW by 2030 and 16.2GW by 2035, positioning the country at the centre of the region’s small-scale solar and battery storage boom.
The forecast comes as sub-Saharan Africa emerges as one of the fastest-growing solar markets globally, with the region recording the strongest year-on-year growth in solar imports between the first quarters of 2025 and 2026.
The region accounted for more than 10 percent of China’s solar exports in March 2026, when global clean technology trade flows reached a monthly record, compared with an average of about five percent in 2025.
BNEF said the increase in imports initially reflected concerns over energy security and rising fossil fuel prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, solar imports remained close to record levels in April and May, indicating that demand was not driven solely by inventory accumulation ahead of China’s removal of a key tax rebate on April 1.
The research firm expects demand to remain strong as households, businesses and governments increasingly turn to solar and battery systems to reduce exposure to volatile fuel prices and unreliable electricity supply.
For Nigeria, the opportunity is particularly significant. The country’s large population, weak grid reliability and rising cost of petrol-powered generators are creating a substantial market for small-scale solar, batteries, mini-grids and other distributed energy solutions.
BNEF data shows that Nigeria, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo averaged only about four hours of electricity supply per day last year. The resulting dependence on generators has made the economics of solar increasingly attractive, particularly after the shift to market-linked fuel pricing pushed up the cost of petrol.
“Small-scale solar is increasingly cheaper than grid electricity or generators exposed to fuel prices,” BNEF said, adding that emerging net-metering reforms in markets such as Nigeria and Ghana could further accelerate adoption.
Nigeria’s solar market has already begun expanding rapidly outside the national grid. The country added 3.1GW of small-scale solar in 2024 and 2025, taking cumulative solar capacity to approximately 6GW.
More than 99 percent of the $2.4 billion invested in Nigeria’s renewable energy sector in 2025 went into small-scale solar, underscoring the direction of capital flows in the country’s energy market.
The country’s wider renewable energy investment reached $5.4 billion between 2023 and 2025, making Nigeria the second-largest market in sub-Saharan Africa over the period behind South Africa, which attracted $20.4 billion.
However, Nigeria’s solar expansion is unfolding against a major financing constraint.
With the Central Bank of Nigeria’s benchmark interest rate at 27 percent, local-currency financing for capital-intensive renewable energy projects remains largely unviable on purely commercial terms. High borrowing costs, currency risks and a limited pool of bankable power offtakers continue to constrain utility-scale solar development.
“High central bank rates mean that few markets across sub-Saharan Africa can support clean energy project finance on purely commercial terms,” BNEF said.
The financing challenge means Nigeria’s renewable energy growth remains heavily dependent on foreign investment, development finance and concessional capital.
Unlike South Africa, which has developed a more established framework for competitive utility-scale renewable energy procurement, Nigeria has yet to establish a scalable auction system capable of delivering a consistent pipeline of large solar projects.
The country’s utility-scale solar development has therefore remained sporadic. Key projects commissioned after 2020 include the 700MW Zungeru hydropower plant, the 40MW Dadin Kowa hydropower project and the 10MW Kumbotso solar plant, Nigeria’s first grid-connected solar project.
BNEF said that without reforms to Nigeria’s power procurement system, growth would remain concentrated in small-scale solar, mini-grids and corporate power projects.
The broader African solar opportunity is being driven increasingly by economics rather than climate policy alone.
As governments reduce electricity subsidies and tariffs move closer to cost-reflective levels, the gap between conventional power and distributed solar is narrowing. South Africa and Nigeria have both recorded rising electricity tariffs as governments seek to reduce subsidies that have historically concealed the cost of coal- and gas-based power systems.
Zambia nearly doubled electricity prices after cutting subsidies in 2025, while Angola is considering similar reforms. Ghana and Zimbabwe are also reviewing tariffs to strengthen the finances of indebted utilities.
The development is strengthening the case for solar-plus-storage systems, particularly in markets where grid power is both expensive and unreliable.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, more than 560 million people lacked access to reliable electricity in 2025. Nigeria, the DRC and Ethiopia alone account for about 240 million people without reliable power, creating a significant market for household solar systems, batteries and mini-grids.
The opportunity spans small plug-and-play systems for households to larger mini-grids capable of supplying entire communities. Pay-as-you-go models supported by mobile payments are also expanding access to solar systems in underserved markets.
For investors, the market is creating opportunities across solar equipment manufacturing, distribution, installation, financing and mini-grid development.
BNEF said developers such as WeLight and Husk Power were expanding mini-grid projects in Nigeria and the DRC with support from the International Finance Corporation, Norfund and the World Bank.
Sub-Saharan Africa attracted $13.5 billion in renewable energy investment in 2025, marking the third consecutive year in which investment exceeded $12 billion.
Solar accounted for $10.9 billion of that total, with small-scale solar investment more than doubling year-on-year to $8.5 billion. Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya were the largest small-scale solar markets.
Utility-scale solar investment, however, declined to $2.4 billion from $3.4 billion in 2024, reflecting the difficulty of financing and procuring large projects across much of the region.
BNEF forecasts that solar, wind and battery capacity in sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 13GW in 2025 to 29GW by 2030 and 49GW by 2035.
Small-scale solar is expected to account for the largest share of additions, averaging 14.2GW annually over the forecast period, while small-scale battery additions are projected to average 9GW annually.
Utility-scale solar additions are expected to average 2.9GW annually, compared with 3.3GW for utility-scale batteries.
Nigeria is expected to lead the small-scale segment, while South Africa is projected to remain the dominant market for utility-scale renewable energy additions.
