This is an appropriate time to use the Swahili saying “mgala muue, na haki umpe” for sub-Saharan Africa. For a long time, praise, that is not always heard, has come from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to pat sub-Saharan Africa on the back for holding up in growth to achieve a projected 4.5 percent in both 2026 and 2027, despite the U.S.-Iran war, and a difficult global environment, Zeine Zeidane, director of the African department, recently said.
The Swahili words literally mean after you have killed the Gala (Oromo) man, give him his right. The hidden meaning is to give credit where it is due. That is to say, even if you dislike a person, you must openly recognise and praise their talent and hard work. What the IMF has said about the region deserves a lot of praise. But there is the need to offer the caution that the region must not disappoint the world by doing the wrong things.
Speaking at the release of the October 2026 Regional Economic Outlook Update for sub-Saharan Africa, Zeidane said, “the region’s resilience reflects both earlier reforms and rapid adaptation.” These reforms in the region, such as the subsidy and exchange rate in Ethiopia and Nigeria, as well as those on structural reforms in South Africa, have strengthened macroeconomic stability.
Though the region may be experiencing growth due to the resilience, he cautioned that, “resilience is not immunity.” This is because the “regional aggregate” masks very different country experiences. Higher oil, copper, and gold prices are cushioning some exporters. By contrast, “growth is slowing in non-resource-intensive economies, while their external deficits are widening.”
What should be a worry now is what Zeidane said must be watched, and these include renewed cost-of-living pressures on households as well as median inflation projected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent this year and five percent in 2027. In addition, he notes that fuel and transport costs are already higher, while more expensive fertiliser could put further pressure on food prices and security.
The IMF’s worry is that governments have little room to respond. “Fiscal adjustment before the shock helped bring down deficits and debt ratios,” Zeidane said, adding that, “buffers remain thin. Interest payments absorb about 12 percent of government revenue in the typical country, leaving less room for public services and investment.”
“Market access has continued for some countries, but borrowing remains expensive. Greater reliance on borrowing from domestic banks can leave less credit available to businesses and households, and leave the banking system more exposed to the government. And bilateral aid to the region is projected to fall by a further 12 percent this year, after a steep decline in 2025,” he added.
Against this background, Zeidane is of the view that it leaves the region with little room to absorb another shock. This is because renewed disruption to energy supplies, a sharp increase in global risk aversion, or a strong El Niño could all intensify pressures. There is also the problem of conflict and insecurity, which he said remain an additional drag in parts of the region. But there is a bit of hope, as overall, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside.
He noted that “the challenges are significant, but so too is the region’s ability to adapt and move forward.” It means there is work to be done, and Zeidane gave some suggestions for policymakers in the region. These include; protection of vulnerable households—but this must be done in a way that preserves scarce fiscal resources.
In addition, there must be broad fuel-price relief which is currently expensive and poorly targeted. In an illustrative comparison of 19 countries, Zeidane said generalised fuel-price smoothing can cost about four percent of GDP, stating that transfers giving the poorest 40 percent of the population the same benefit would cost at most half a percent of GDP.
“Where delivery systems are weak, governments should use the most targeted options available, such as school feeding or geographically targeted support. Any temporary price relief should be transparently funded, capped, and time-bound,” he said.
Zeidane also mentioned the safeguarding of economic stability, and explained that commodity exporters should save most of their windfalls, including by repaying costly debt. Countries facing higher import bills should stay the course on fiscal adjustment while protecting essential services and productive investment.
“For many countries, monetary tightening may be needed to prevent temporary price pressures from becoming persistent inflation. Where regimes permit, exchange-rate flexibility can help absorb the shock and preserve reserves. Greater debt transparency and better debt management remain essential,” he added.
Besides, Zeidane said policymakers should not lose sight of growth and reforms that make economies more resilient to future shocks. This will require more reliable electricity, better digital connectivity, stronger skills, and a more predictable business environment that can unlock private investment and jobs.
“Regional trade and power integration can expand markets and reduce exposure to imported fuel. These reforms are especially important because the region still faces a large productivity gap relative to other emerging and developing economies. Closing even part of that gap would create substantial opportunities for stronger, more inclusive growth,” he said.
Despite all these nice words, sub-Saharan Africa being a region that can unsettle itself without warning, one would hope that leaders would be quick to learn from what Zeidane has said. They should also be careful not to allow corruption to derail the gains that have been projected. For a long time, it had been identified that corruption had been the bane of Africa’s development. Sadly, no one seems to care about it.
It is a wonder that leaders and their appointees have made milking their countries their prize for taking over the leadership of countries in the region. The time has come for self-examination to find out if it is worthwhile mismanaging the economies through corruption. Of what use is it if one person pockets millions that should benefit the majority? Of what use is it if one government appointee decides to own 100 apartments whilst millions are deprived of decent accommodation? Of what use is it if a few decide to own exotic cars leaving millions without adequate health facilities to check on simple conditions and sicknesses?
These provide food for thought for Africans in leadership positions to consider. They must use their positions to help sustain the projected growth that will make the continent a place worth living for all future descendants. They should make an effort to prevent the youth from attempting to cross the Sahara Desert in order to make a better life for themselves.
And as Zeidane said, “the region’s resilience is real, and it reflects difficult reforms and remarkable adaptation. That experience should give us confidence that the region can meet today’s challenges and build a stronger future.”
He has also cautioned that “resilience today must not be financed by sacrificing tomorrow’s growth. Protecting the vulnerable, preserving stability, and sustaining productive investment are how resilience becomes durable prosperity.” Thank God, the IMF has promised “to support countries across the region, combining financial support, policy advice, and capacity development tailored to their circumstances.”
Some financial analysts have also suggested that countries save commodity windfalls. This means that countries benefiting from surging prices of critical minerals (such as those used in AI and green tech) should save temporary windfalls rather than spending them immediately.
In addition, they must strengthen domestic revenue through improving tax administration and mobilising domestic revenues to lessen dependence on shrinking foreign aid. All these will come to nought if corruption is not controlled.
Thus, as the Fulani say, “anndal yo hoccinte”, which in English means wisdom is something to be picked up or gathered, or a wise person quietly absorbs instruction rather than needing a long lecture. In other words, a word to the wise is enough. Hopefully, leaders in sub-Saharan Africa will do the needful and not disappoint the IMF this time around.
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Francis Koktuse is a free-lance journalist based in Accra. Currently, he is the local Stringer for the New York Times. He also writes for University World News, as well as Science and Development.Net. He was a Staff Writer for the African Concord, and Africa Economic Digest in London, UK.
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