Developing economies risk missing out on the fastest-growing segment of global trade unless they close widening gaps in digital infrastructure, skills, payments and regulatory capacity, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned.
The warning comes as services increasingly move beyond their traditional role as a standalone sector to become essential inputs into the production, marketing and export of goods.
UNCTAD said services accounted for 27 percent of global exports in 2025, up four percentage points from 2015, while services exports grew by about 6.7 percent annually over the past decade, outpacing the growth of goods exports.
The acceleration has been driven largely by digitally deliverable services, including financial and insurance services that can be supplied remotely across borders.
But the gains have been uneven. Services exports from developing economies have grown by only about three percent annually, while digitally deliverable services represented just 16 percent of their total services exports in 2024, compared with 61 percent in developed economies.
The disparity leaves developing markets facing a growing competitiveness challenge as global value chains become increasingly dependent on digital, financial, logistics and professional services.
UNCTAD said poor connectivity, costly cross-border payments and skills gaps were among the principal constraints, while differences in export structures mean developing economies remain more dependent on traditional services such as transport and tourism.
The agency also highlighted the emerging risk from artificial intelligence, noting that fewer than one-third of developing countries have adopted national AI strategies.
For countries seeking to expand their participation in global value chains, the implications extend beyond the services sector itself.
UNCTAD said the quality, cost and availability of services directly affect the competitiveness of goods exporters, making efficient financial systems, digital networks, logistics, insurance and other business services increasingly important to manufacturing and merchandise trade.
The development comes against a more uncertain outlook for global goods trade. UNCTAD has projected that merchandise trade growth could slow by as much as 3.2 percentage points in 2026, as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty weigh on supply chains, shipping and investment.
At the same time, the growing services economy is opening a new market for financial institutions and trade-finance providers.
A banker speaking at a recent GTR roundtable in Singapore described services trade as an area of growing potential that banks were largely underestimating.
UNCTAD said developing economies need better trade data, stronger digital foundations and greater capacity to influence emerging international rules if they are to capture more of the value being created by services trade.
The agency also cautioned that existing multilateral rules have struggled to keep pace with digital commerce, while overlapping regional and bilateral agreements have increased regulatory complexity.
For emerging economies, the shift presents both a warning and an opportunity: as the global economy becomes more services-intensive, weak digital capacity could constrain exports, while stronger infrastructure and skills could unlock new sources of foreign exchange, investment and participation in global value chains.
