Trade, agriculture and the non-manufacturing sectors performance lifted the private-sector confidence gauge to its highest level in recent months, even as persistent power, financing, infrastructure and security constraints continued to squeeze businesses.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s (NESG) latest Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) showed that the Current Business Performance Index rose to 117.8 points in September 2026, from 112.7 points in August and 107.9 points in September 2025.
The expansion was broad-based, with all major sectors remaining above the 100-point expansion threshold. Trade led the performance, recording an index of 128.5 points, up from 112.0 points in August, as wholesale and retail businesses benefited from stronger consumer demand and increased stockpiling associated with back-to-school shopping.
According to the NESG, most of the major business-condition indicators including general business situation, production, demand, exports, operating profit, supply orders, trade stockpiling, cash flow and employment, remained in expansion territory and generally improved from the previous month.
Of particular significance, the investment index moved back into expansion territory in September after several months of contraction, suggesting an improvement in firms’ investment appetite. But the recovery was not without cracks.
The financial results index fell into contraction territory after several months of expansion, while the Cost of Doing Business and Prices indices remained deeply below the neutral 100-point mark at 39.2 and 58.0 points, respectively.
Because those two indices have an inverse interpretation, their low readings indicate that a net majority of businesses continued to experience elevated operating costs and producer-price pressures.
Trade was the standout performer during the month. Its 128.5-point index represented a significant improvement from both August 2026 and September 2025. Wholesale Trade strengthened further, while Retail Trade moved decisively into expansion.
The NESG attributed the improvement partly to increased trade stockpiling and stronger consumer demand associated with back-to-school shopping.
The sector’s near-term outlook was even stronger. Trade recorded a Future Business Expectation Index of 192.0 points, the highest among the sectors surveyed.
Agriculture also posted a strong performance. Its Current Business Performance Index increased to 117.7 points from 110.5 points in August and 107.3 points a year earlier.
Crop Production and Agro-Allied activities recorded stronger expansion, although Livestock slowed. Forestry and Fishing, however, moved into contraction.
The sector continued to face inadequate financing, power outages, insecurity and infrastructure bottlenecks, which the NESG said constrained new investment and raised the cost of doing business.
Manufacturing provided the clearest counterpoint to the broad-based expansion.
The sector’s business performance index declined to 108.4 points from 120.4 points in August, although it remained above the expansion threshold and was higher than the 102.5 points recorded a year earlier.
Performance was mixed across manufacturing subsectors.
Food, Beverage and Tobacco and Textile, Apparel and Footwear remained in expansion, with the latter strengthening from August. However, Cement moved into contraction, while Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products, Plastic and Rubber Products, Wood and Wood Products, Non-Metallic Products, Basic Metals, Iron and Steel, and Motor Vehicles and Assembly also contracted.
Manufacturers continued to identify energy shortages, inadequate raw materials, high rental costs, restricted access to credit and infrastructure deficiencies as major constraints.
Despite the September slowdown, manufacturers remained relatively optimistic about the months ahead, with a Future Business Expectation Index of 151.9 points.
Services remained in expansion but lost momentum. The sector’s Current Business Performance Index fell to 107.7 points, from 112.4 points in August and 108.5 points in September 2025.
Financial Institutions, Real Estate, and Telecoms and Information Services recorded stronger activity, while Broadcasting and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services expanded more slowly. Other Services remained around the neutral threshold.
The sector continued to contend with regulatory bottlenecks, financing constraints, infrastructure deficits and erratic electricity supply.
Non-manufacturing industries performed better overall, with the sector’s index rising to 113.4 points from 109.7 points in August.
Construction and other non-manufacturing activities improved, while Natural Gas slowed. Crude Petroleum moved into expansion territory, contrasting with Oil and Gas Services, which slipped into contraction.
The sector nevertheless remained exposed to the same economy-wide constraints: unreliable electricity, restricted financing, infrastructure deficits, high rents and insecurity.
Despite the cost pressures, Nigerian businesses remained optimistic about the next one to three months.
The NESG Future Business Expectation Index stood at 128.9 points in September, only marginally below the 129.3 points recorded in August.
Trade recorded the strongest outlook at 192.0 points, followed by Manufacturing at 151.9 points and Non-Manufacturing at 148.1 points.
Agriculture posted 134.8 points, while Services recorded 123.2 points.
The NESG said the outlook reflected cautious optimism, with businesses expecting stronger demand from election-related activities and year-end festivities. However, persistent energy-related cost pressures continued to temper expectations.
The findings also reinforce the policy priorities around productivity, investment and competitiveness that NESG is expected to place at the centre of its forthcoming 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit, scheduled for October 26–27 in Abuja.
